Posted on 03/02/2002 1:29:00 PM PST by Michael.SF.
As for the Iran to Pakistan/India natural gas line, that wouldn't go through Afghanistan, so the Taliban angle doesn't seem to fit. It would go along the coastlines of the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea. Iran and other neighbors had plenty of reasons to hate not necessarily the "Taliban" itself, but allowing Afstan to become a haven of terrorism - like in Kashmir. Killing local shi'ites didn't do much to curry Iran's favor, as is the opium trade - heroin is a big problem in Iran.
As I speculated before, Iran seemed to "hop to it" when word of the Turkmenistan pipeline came to fore. They seemed to first offer Pakistan a plan, and Pak probably said they have enough with the Turkmen line (through Afstan). So the Indian plan was announced - but will India want a line through Pakistan? Or prefer the gas be liquified and water transported, cutting Pak out of the deal? What are the costs?
Also in the background is Bush's speech about fuel cells and hydrogen. Gas is a great source for this, and I think people have been shook up to get out of the oil mode into the Gas mode. Interestingly gas is not distributed among the Petro countries as in the same proportions as oil. Iran, Qatar, Netherlands, and especially the ex Soviet states are favored, while Saudi Arabia's reserves are biased with oil. I think Qatar alone has reserves 4x that of S.A. It is important to distinguish oil from gas, and some of the articles you sight get confused on the issue. Simply, the Turkmen line was proposed by countries and companies, one which was UNOCAL. All the oil line thru Afstan stuff is more hypotheses and unbacked proposals. There are all sorts of plans, and all sorts of criticisms. There was a plan for china, which seems to have been dropped. The Supsa and Ceyhan (going thru Georgia) oil lines are in the works. These seem to be for Italy and Spain markets. If Russia can pacify Chechnya, Northern Caucasian routes directly to Europe will be built.
Anyway, all these ruminations about why the Taliban didn't want the Turkmen pipeline are premised on the machinations of America, especially UNOCAL (and that somewhat confused French book). My question is, why didn't the Taliban agree? Didn't they want the money? What are the "mysterious" interests behind them. It's not complex. It's Saudi Arabia. Al Qaeda focused its terrorism on Afstan, Central Asia, and the Caucasus. Why there? They weren't bombing Israel, and showed very little actual interest in it. Unfortunately for the House of Saud, their mercenaries for market manipulations are true believers, and attacked america to harshly. On the other hand, it could be perceived as a survival attack, coupled with the assassination of Massoud, to fend of a 6+2 attack to overthrow the Taliban.
You say:
Now the Unocal-led Central Asian Gas pipeline is coming to fruition, and with the Taliban out of the way, the way is paved for more regional pipeline deals
What UNOCAL pipeline? They say they've dropped out. And isn't the Karzai-Musharraf agreement about the same "pipeline" whomever builds it? I think an argentinian firm was mentioned in the past. Wouldn't be surprised if the Turks or Russians showed up to build it.
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