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Is human evolution finally over? (Looks like we're stuck)
The Observer (UK) ^ | Sunday February 3, 2002

Posted on 02/02/2002 6:27:46 PM PST by Dallas

Is human evolution finally over?

Scientists are split over the theory that natural selection has come to a standstill in the West. Robin McKie reports

Sunday February 3, 2002
The Observer


For those who dream of a better life, science has bad news: this is the best it is going to get. Our species has reached its biological pinnacle and is no longer capable of changing.

That is the stark, controversial view of a group of biologists who believe a Western lifestyle now protects humanity from the forces that used to shape Homo sapiens.

'If you want to know what Utopia is like, just look around - this is it,' said Professor Steve Jones, of University College London, who is to present his argument at a Royal Society Edinburgh debate, 'Is Evolution Over?', next week. 'Things have simply stopped getting better, or worse, for our species.'

This view is controversial, however. Other scientists argue that mankind is still being influenced by the evolutionary forces that created the myriad species which have inhabited Earth over the past three billion years.

'If you had looked at Stone Age people in Europe a mere 50,000 years ago, you would assume the trend was for people to get bigger and stronger all the time,' said Prof Chris Stringer, of the Natural History Museum, London. 'Then, quite abruptly, these people were replaced by light, tall, highly intelligent people who arrived from Africa and took over the world. You simply cannot predict evolutionary events like this. Who knows where we are headed?'

Some scientists believe humans are becoming less brainy and more neurotic; others see signs of growing intelligence and decreasing robustness, while some, like Jones, see evidence of us having reached a standstill. All base their arguments on the same tenets of natural selection.

According to Darwin's theory, individual animals best suited to their environments live longer and have more children, and so spread their genes through populations. This produces evolutionary changes. For example, hoofed animals with longer necks could reach the juiciest leaves on tall trees and therefore tended to eat well, live longer, and have more offspring. Eventually, they evolved into giraffes. Those with shorter necks died out.

Similar processes led to the evolution of mankind, but this has now stopped because virtually everybody's genes are making it to the next generation, not only those who are best adapted to their environments.

'Until recently, there were massive differences between individuals' lifespans and fecundity,' said Jones. 'In London, the death rate outstripped the birth rate for most of the city's history. If you look at graveyards from ancient to Victorian times, you can see that a half of all children died before adolescence, probably because they lacked genetic protection against disease. Now, children's chances of reaching the age of 25 have reached 98 per cent. Nothing is changing. We have reached stagnation.'

In addition, human populations are now being constantly mixed, again producing a blending that blocks evolutionary change. This increased mixing can be gauged by calculating the number of miles between a person's birthplace and his or her partner's, then between their parents' birthplaces, and finally, between their grandparents'.

In virtually every case, you will find that the number of miles drops dramatically the more that you head back into the past. Now people are going to universities and colleges where they meet and marry people from other continents. A generation ago, men and women rarely mated with anyone from a different town or city. Hence, the blending of our genes which will soon produce a uniformly brown-skinned population. Apart from that, there will be little change in the species.

However, such arguments affect only the Western world - where food, hygiene and medical advances are keeping virtually every member of society alive and able to pass on their genes. In the developing world, no such protection exists.

'Just consider Aids, and then look at chimpanzees,' says Jones. 'You find they all carry a version of HIV but are unaffected by it.

'But a few thousand years ago, when the first chimps became infected, things would have been very different. Millions of chimps probably died as the virus spread through them, and only a small number, which possessed genes that conferred immunity, survived to become the ancestors of all chimps today.

'Something very similar could soon happen to humans. In a thousand years, Africa will be populated only by the descendants of those few individuals who are currently immune to the Aids virus. They will carry the virus but will be unaffected by it. So yes, there will be change there all right - but only where the forces of evolution are not being suppressed.'

However, other scientists believe evolutionary pressures are still taking their toll on humanity, despite the protection afforded by Western life. For example, the biologist Christopher Wills, of the University of California, San Diego, argues that ideas are now driving our evolution. 'There is a premium on sharpness of mind and the ability to accumulate money. Such people tend to have more children and have a better chance of survival,' he says. In other words, intellect - the defining characteristic of our species - is still driving our evolution.

This view is countered by Peter Ward, of the University of Washington in Seattle. In his book, Future Evolution, recently published in the US by Henry Holt, Ward also argues that modern Western life protects people from the effects of evolution. 'I don't think we are going to see any changes - apart from ones we deliberately introduce ourselves, when we start to bio-engineer people, by introducing genes into their bodies, so they live longer or are stronger and healthier.'

If people start to live to 150, and are capable of producing children for more than 100 of those years, the effects could be dramatic, he says. 'People will start to produce dozens of children in their lifetimes, and that will certainly start to skew our evolution. These people will also have more chance to accumulate wealth as well. So we will have created a new race of fecund, productive individuals and that could have dramatic consequences.

'However, that will only come about when we directly intervene in our own evolution, using cloning and gene therapy. Without that, nothing will happen.'

Stringer disagrees, however. 'Evolution goes on all the time. You don't have to intervene. It is just that it is highly unpredictable. For example, brain size has decreased over the past 10,000 years. A similar reduction has also affected our physiques. We are punier and smaller-brained compared with our ancestors only a few millennia ago. So even though we might be influenced by evolution, that does not automatically mean an improvement in our lot.'

robin.mckie@observer.co.uk


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial
KEYWORDS: crevolist
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To: Restorer
It must be the tequila; I really would like to continue this conversation, save for another day.

Tomorrow fine for you?

21 posted on 02/02/2002 7:09:11 PM PST by X-USAF
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To: Grut
There ya go....bada booooom
22 posted on 02/02/2002 7:09:12 PM PST by Dallas
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To: Dallas
They ain't seen nuttin', yet.

There's gonna be people that can live in the sea, breathe the water. People that can live on Mars with just a SCUBA. People that can live forever and never die. People that can regrow vital organs and limbs. Coming soon.

23 posted on 02/02/2002 7:13:27 PM PST by RightWhale
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To: Dallas
It's the lawyers! They represent stupid people suing to recover damages incurred as a result of their own stupidity. Warning labels appear that prevent other stupid people from harming themselves, and evolution is thwarted.
24 posted on 02/02/2002 7:16:32 PM PST by Gamecock
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To: Dallas
Some scientists believe humans are becoming less brainy and more neurotic; others see signs of growing intelligence and decreasing robustness, while some, like Jones, see evidence of us having reached a standstill. All base their arguments on the same tenets of natural selection.

LOL...these "scientists" cannot even decide what's happening right now in front of their noses and yet that speak of one accord as though they know beyond a shadow of a doubt what happen billions of years ago and refuse to allow other theories.

25 posted on 02/02/2002 7:17:56 PM PST by RAT Patrol
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To: RightWhale
I don't think Humanity as it is will be around in 1000 years. I think by that time it won't make any difference what we have done over the last 100 years. I really think the ultimate goal of some interet groups, and some governmental agencies, is to reduce the population of the Earth to about a billion people, and have robots do the work of the rest of what humanity does now. These billion or so people will probably live lives of luxury, and if there are human servants, they will be of the Brave New World persuasion who have been genetcially engineered to perform specified tasks.

Of course in 1000 years, none of us will be there to see it.

26 posted on 02/02/2002 7:23:46 PM PST by MadRobotArtist
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To: Dallas
What choo mean "eventually?"
27 posted on 02/02/2002 7:24:02 PM PST by ZDaphne
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To: ZDaphne
Beat me by 60 seconds :)
28 posted on 02/02/2002 7:25:19 PM PST by ThinkDifferent
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To: Dallas
Rocks are smarter than many humans already.
29 posted on 02/02/2002 7:27:54 PM PST by Waco
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To: MadRobotArtist
"I don't think Humanity as it is will be around in 1000 years ." -- MadRobotArtist

We will all have donkey ears and act like asses!

30 posted on 02/02/2002 7:27:58 PM PST by Buckeroo
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To: Dallas

Curiously, Drudge has this picture just under this headline: Human evolution has ended, claim scientists: this is as good as it gets...

Looks like the human race is doomed to look like they just had one pint too many at the local pub.

31 posted on 02/02/2002 7:30:17 PM PST by SamAdams76
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To: Dallas
But what happens when that Ice Age y'all were predicting a while back hits? Or will it be melted in this new Global Warming Trend? And which comes first? Should I invest in Memphis beachfront or continental shelf edge beachfront? And how tall will humans have evolved to when all this happens, so I can get the condo plans together?
32 posted on 02/02/2002 7:31:41 PM PST by Cleburne
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Comment #33 Removed by Moderator

To: J.A.Picton
I could be mistaken. Heck, I've been wrong so many times.
34 posted on 02/02/2002 7:34:31 PM PST by LibKill
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To: Dallas
This extremely stupid conclusion by the scientists is another attempt to attack the west, multiculural style. It's pretty easy to see through.
35 posted on 02/02/2002 7:35:15 PM PST by ovrtaxt
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To: Dallas
For example, hoofed animals with longer necks could reach the juiciest leaves on tall trees and therefore tended to eat well, live longer, and have more offspring. Eventually, they evolved into giraffes. Those with shorter necks died out.

Woops! Looks like somebody forgot to tell the Zebras, Wildebeasts, and a dozens of different antelope like animals that they died out...

I enjoy evolutionary theories for the humor! :)

36 posted on 02/02/2002 7:36:02 PM PST by Enlightiator
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To: Cleburne
Haven't ya heard----The Enron collapse ended life forever---it's over.
37 posted on 02/02/2002 7:36:53 PM PST by Dallas
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To: Enlightiator
Yeah, but you should have seen the old models-no necks! Things looked like some kind of spokesperson for NOW. Now they've all got necks, much more shapely.
38 posted on 02/02/2002 7:39:09 PM PST by Cleburne
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To: ovrtaxt
It's a creationist plot to make evolutionists look stupid!
39 posted on 02/02/2002 7:40:33 PM PST by Cleburne
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To: Dallas
ITS NOT FAIR!!! Evolution ends just as liberalism peaks out, not fair!!! God, don't forsake us!!!
40 posted on 02/02/2002 7:41:15 PM PST by Red Jones
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