The roundness of the hole indicates high speed impact, much higher speed than objects which fly from a plane crash. "Must have been a rivet," was a buzz word tossed at Coggswell. But it was a low speed crash to boot. No way could a rivet have done that from a low speed crash.
Actually, if I understand this stuff correctly (I'm certainly no expert, but I think I do), 40 caliber is .40 inch, which is almost exactly 10 mm.
Since 1 inch = 25.4 millimeters (basic metric system conversion):
.354 inch = 9 millimeters, and
.40 inch = 10.16 millimeters, and
.45 inch = 11.43 millimeters.
So 45 caliber would be a lot bigger than 9 mm.