What if 'China Attacks Taiwan!'

Parameters (US Army War College Quarterly) ^ | Autumn 2001 | Richard L. Russell

[JD86]

ping

[Hopalong]

Any military coup de main by the Chicoms in regard to the ROC on Taiwan would be, if they run true to form, masked as final intervention in a "political crisis", a "crisis" painstakingly constructed to give them the appearance of "legitimate response", thus making it as easy as possible for putative opponents not to fight.

In turn, for this to work they need a semi-legitimate Fifth Column on Taiwan, who would for call for mainland intervention in the manufacutred "crisis."

Regards to all. S&W R.I.P.

[Hopalong]

FYI.

Regards to all. S&W R.I.P.

[Bommer]

What crap! All I read is CHINA COULD, not that CHINA CAN! Its 100 miles across open seas to Tiawan. And don't think for a second that Taiwan is not ready to completely obilterate a Chinese invasion force, not to mention they would also have to fight the US! China is like the Arabs, all talk and flex! Granted in the long run China COULD win, but pay heavily militarily and economically! They know that without stealing our military secrets, they are worthless!

[Hopalong]

Ooops—"manufactured". Regards to all. S&W R.I.P.

[Hopalong]

At bottom, it's not a question of whether the Chicoms' could "win", old chap.

Best regards. S&W R.I.P.

[TheDon]

One wonders if it is not in the best interests of the US to help Taiwan return to China proper. Either they are an independent nation or not. The middle ground may be more dangerous, particularly for the US.

[Hopalong]

Ooops—how dat dere superfluous apostrophe get in there—"ChiComs."

Regards to all. S&W R.I.P.

[Hopalong]

Boy, it's just one of those days:

#3: "who would call for mainland intervention in the manufactured 'crisis'."

Regards to all. S&W R.I.P.

[Hopalong]

FYI.

Best regards. Hop.

[Paulie]

First you say: "What crap! All I read is CHINA COULD, not that CHINA CAN!". Then you go on to say "Granted in the long run China COULD win,"

So I take it you really mean this essay may not be "crap" after all. Is that correct?

[Hopalong]

"Granted in the long run China COULD win, but pay heavily militarily and economically!"

Merely by the way, except under a political charade as outlined in #3, with potential opponents somehow politically and diplomatically subverted into not fighting, I personally don't think the ChiComs' have much chance of "winning", even "in the long run."

But again, that is not the question.

Another aspect of the current situation was mentioned, quite trenchantly in my opinion, by Poohbah quite some time ago—that is, from one point of view what the ChiComs may actually be doing is working on the first civil war in recorded history using nukes.

Best regards. S&W R.I.P.

[Hopalong]

Bump to #12 and FYI: #13.

Best regards. S&W R.I.P.

[Cicero]

To tell the truth, I half expected them to do it during Clinton's last years in office, maybe during that period when he pulled every aircraft carrier out of the Pacific for the attack on Yugoslavia, and was down to a few last cruise missiles.

Now that Bush is in office, it's a good deal less likely. The only thing that could really deter them is wondering what we might do in response. Keep in mind that they now have a dozen or more ICBMs targeted on American cities, which forces us to be very careful what we do. Also they could probably destroy a carrier fleet in the area with nukes, although of course that would risk a devastating counter-blow.

No one wants a nuclear exchange, so it's something of a stand-off. In that situation, as we saw with the USSR, a great deal depends on the known determination and resolve of the United States. I think our resolve is a lot better KNOWN now than it was last year. The Chinese have always suspected that we are paper tigers, but I trust they are less sure about that than they were in the days when they were paying the DNC for clinton's election campaigns.

[KneelBeforeZod]

my question... what if business owners in Taiwan stopped moving to China?

[Nitro]

Taiwan gets screwed, blued and tattoed every time a typhoon rolls through the area!

They might cause heavy casualties to a Chinese invasion, but 1.25 billion people is a heavy wave!

The only thing that keeps China from crossing that 100 miles is the USA's "Big Stick", the US Navy and Nuclear retaliation!!

[wildconservatism]

Why does the U.S. care whether Taiwan is part of China or not? Isn't it about time for us to stop playing these kinds of games defending other countries? Yeah, Chinese are commies, but they ain't gonna come to our doorstep. The Cold War is over.

[Nitro]

It goes back to WWII and maybe futher, we had Marines and Navy there from around 1900!

But the Taiwan thing is after "The Flying Tigers" or "AVG" (The American Volunteer Group) had finished helping Ch'aing Kai Sheck [sic] fight the Jap's, he/they were confronted by Mao and the commies. They managed to retreat to Taiwan and we swore that we would always be there!!

Are you saying that America should turn Her back on a friend?

I hope not, we are what we say we are, unless we're lying!!

I say stand tall for Taiwan!!