Osama bin Laden is Already Dead (In Depth Opinion Piece)

various sources | 11-28-01 | HighWheeler

[HighWheeler]

Osama bin Laden is Already Dead

By Highwheeler at freerepublic.com

In the weeks since the terrorist airliner hijackings and the subsequent attacks on the WTC and Pentagon, both U.S. military and U.S. political strategies have been slowly revealed. Not every piece of information was overt and obvious to the casual observer about these operations. While certain pieces of information were outwardly and proudly proclaimed, most were the carefully and heavily edited bits of information that still remain the most interesting. I am talking about the sporadic information that was missing, retracted, or just puzzling in its nature. This thesis is a compilation of the real data, real press released information, and extrapolations created about that missing, retracted and puzzling data. These data are then used to build conclusions on the events in the war against Afghanistan leading to the conclusion that Osama bin Laden is already dead.

As you read this keep these ideas in mind: 1) These are actual public-domain facts tempered with my opinion based on logic, history, technology, and human nature. 2) Please don’t jump to your conclusions until you have read the whole column, it is a fairly complex analysis and summary of events, and 3) some of the pieces of information are obvious but still necessary in order to completely draw the conclusions.

 

Objectives of the U.S. War on Terrorism:

1. The U.S. does not want to bring Osama to the U.S. for any kind of trial, it would make the OJ trial look like a neighborhood bake sale.
2. We do not want to create a martyr out of Osama.
3. We want to destroy Osama’s influence by killing him.
4. We want to disassemble the entire terrorist network, both physically and financially.
5. Destroying the entire terrorist network will take years to finish, and should be done by first removing the head.

 

Strategies required to reach U.S. Objectives:

1. Immediately freeze and acquire all possible terrorist related asset accounts in the world, removing the financial fuel of terrorism as much as possible, and to severely restrict the free flow of any remaining capital or assets.
2. Identify, round-up, and investigate all known terrorist suspects in the U.S.
3. Use heavy bombing in the first few hours on targets that are of special interest or high value to the terrorists to maximize the destruction, and to minimize the effect of their defensive response.
4. Begin physical elimination of terrorists and terrorist locations once the most critical targets have been identified.
5. We must kill the leader, Osama bin Laden, as soon as possible.
6. We must leave no witnesses, no time, no date, no place, nor a body with which to associate the demise of bin Laden. If we did:

1. It would create a rallying point for the terrorists, and
2. Notify the terrorist organizations that a new leader is required immediately to fill the newly vacant position.
3. May trigger pre-planned acts of terrorism as a direct response to the demise of bin Laden.

 

Assumptions:

1. Over the past 8 years (while Clinton was fostering and/or ignoring terrorism, or making the U.S. look weak in the eyes of terrorists) the FBI and CIA had been keeping fairly close tabs on known terrorists both here in the U.S. and abroad. (substantiation below)
2. We have satellites and other above-ground-level vehicles that can actually read the brand on a pack of cigarettes laying on the ground, and can also clearly view minor temperature variation such as body heat in the IR spectrum and use night vision technology. There was a full moon on October 2, 2001, 5 days before the initial attacks in Afghanistan, which would have made night vision extremely useful. (Readily Available Technology Theorem)
3. That the CIA has been in constant contact with planted terrorist operatives in Afghanistan before and during the bombing of Afghanistan. (James Bond Theorem)
4. Osama has become the hero of the taliban, and as such, the terrorists look at him with reverence and admiration, and want to be at least near him, even if they can't sleep in the same cave. (Bask In The Hero’s Reflected Glow Theorem)
5. An intelligent person would not create a huge risk by demanding something that they were not prepared to accept or really didn’t want. (Be Careful What You Ask For Theorem)
6. That there is actually no honor among thieves. (Jimmy Hoffa Theorem)

 

Additional facts:

1. Over 140 known US terrorists were taken into custody within 4 days of 9-11. Since then there are now 604 "detainees" in U.S. hands. This means that the FBI/CIA has been keeping track of terrorists.
2. Over 300 worldwide financial asset accounts were frozen well within 2 weeks of 9-11. This also means we have been keeping track of terrorists to some degree.
3. We spent almost a month in "strategery" before the first attack on Afghanistan. 26 or 27 Days depending on how you count, to be exact.
4. Saturation bombing of the terrorists and their facilities started on Oct 7.
5. On or about Thursday, Oct 11, 2001, less than 7 full days after bombing started, George Bush-43 stated during a press conference in no uncertain terms that he would "halt air strikes" if they handed over Osama bin Laden. The Taliban response was "Our jihad (holy struggle) . . . will continue until the last breath for the defense of our homeland and Islam" Which really didn’t address Bush’s offer to "halt air strikes" if they would turn over bin Laden. http://www.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/asiapcf/central/10/13/ret.taliban.rejection/index.html
6. On October 25, 2001, USA Today reported that Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld had said that we might never catch Osama bin Laden. http://www.ashbrook.org/publicat/oped/tucker/01/binladen.html When asked about this later in the day at a press briefing, the Secretary backtracked. Under pressure from reporters, he said "I think we're going to get him."

Conclusions:

 

• The strategy Rumsfeld was initially employing was designed to create the illusion to the terrorists that Osama is still alive, that our intent is not necessarily to kill him, and to create a sound reason for the US to continue the campaign against terrorism.

• The only options for dealing with bin Laden that still meet all 5 Objectives and Strategy #6 above are to:

1. kidnap Osama undercover, take him out to sea, tie a big brick to him and kick him overboard. This is too risky since there would likely be many witnesses.
2. Kill him on the spot or after his capture when found. This leaves even more witnesses, a body, possible videotape.
3. Kill him and coincidentally bury him in a cave along with all nearby witnesses.

• The Talibanis would give up Osama if they could actually find him. Turning him over to the U.S. would produce four desirable outcomes from the Taliban’s point of view":

1. It would force Bush to keep his word to "halt air-strikes" in Afghanistan (or severely jeopardize or cripple his authority by reneging on his offer), and
2. It saves the remaining terrorist network, and
3. It would royally screw up the U.S.’s politically correct judicial system for years and years, and
4. They would be eligible to receive the $1B or $25M bounty (depending on which offer you believe) currently on bin Laden’s head. They can always use the money to continue terrorist activities and save their own lives and network in the process. Of course, this conclusion assumes that the Talibanis are not complete idiots, a poor assumption for sure, but does not diminish the other conclusions in anyway.

• In his press conference, Bush would have been certifiably out of his mind to publicly state that he would "halt air strikes" in exchange for Osama unless he was knew there was ABSOLUTELY NO WAY bin Laden could be handed over. This proposed deal, if enacted by the Talibanis by actually handing over bin Laden, would have violated all 5 U.S. Objectives of the War on Terrorism, plus violated the last 3 Strategies of the War.

• Using a ground offensive instead of the airstrikes to capture Osama is dangerous, obvious and slow, therefore it creates a low probability of successful capture of Osama. Disposal of the evidence is still a big problem with a ground offensive. This would also create at least some American witnesses to his demise, and violates Strategy #5. The information would leak out eventually.

 

[mlocher]

thanks for collating your thoughts and putting this together.

i vaguely recall rumsfeld early on discussing a war of disinformation. i believed his intention was to tip off the press that this would be a two way street. given this, bush's comments and actions would not be inconsistent with the war tactics. (in fact, i happen to believe that some of the united states/israel banter that went on while the coalition was being put together was planned to mute or at least mitigate arab nation concerns.)

i happen to believe, however, that much of the arab world believed that the taliban and al-qaeda were separate, a fact that is turning out to be false. bush was trying, i think, to show that the two worked hand in hand -- hence the edict to the taliban to turn over usama -- and bush knew they would not.

even if the taliban had turned over usama, bush would have put pressure on the taliban to chase down the rest of his network. without taliban resistance, bombing is not necessary.

the american public will demand some specific evidence that we are succeeding in this war. usama would be a major milestone -- although as you have alluded, there is a risk that the war ends with him. i believe that we would have heard if he were killed. al-jazeera, if nobody else, would have found out and publicized it for the response it would have received.

good thoughts and nice compilation of a lot of data. even though i am skeptical of the conclusions drawn, i highly respect the work you did!

[HighWheeler]

There were some business CEOs who were offering $1B for Osama early on. You can still google to get the article on this offer.

[HighWheeler]

"However, mitigating against this is the lack of rumours about it. If we had gotten him, somebody within the terrorist ranks or the Taliban either knows or suspects it. They would have no incentive to keep quiet it about it.

For weeks now, the U.S. has spoken in terms of Osama being alive, yet have stated some unusual things to create enough doubt. If they took out bin Laden early, and still stuck to the Startegies, they would have to take out all witnesses within a huge perimeter to ensure no positive witnesses.

The one who are alive are quiet about it because they don't know for sure, and yet they still want to believe.

[SusanUSA]

Thanks, HighWheeler. A bump to read it thoroughly in a bit. Gotta run for now.

N&V:Sounds close to your theory, too, doesn't it?

Saber, over here, over here! Now you can find out and I WON'T have to kill you!

[HighWheeler]

You have almost swerved into your own answer.

We have been told that Osama understands the U.S. and a lot of the culture. He was a civil engineer, and lived in the relatively upscale Saudi Arabia. His engineering degree purportedly led him to target the WTC. IF he were alive today, he would be the first to realize the potential destruction he could cause (aided and abetted by the liberals and peaceniks in the U.S.) here by surrendering. He would also be creating nightly news for years as the trial dragged on, and acting as the greatest terrorist draft incentive since the Uncle Sam posters of WWII.

Before Bush made his "halt air campaign" speech, I was wondering when Osama would surrender himself. It took about 8 years to convict the two weasels who actually planted the first bombs in the WTC. Imagine what would happen if we had Osama.

[HighWheeler]

Thanks for your thoughtful words.

[snippy_about_it]

Let us just say he was killed today, November 28th so I can win the BIN LADEN (DEAD) POOL.

[moodyskeptic]

I'm readin you loud and clear. For weeks, when friends would say it's important to catch binLaden quickly, I'd stop 'em and ask why? You got it right, there's no good reason to show up with binLaden's head before we destroy his terrorist network.

If the truth is being supressed, as you and I suspect it is, I'm HAPPY to see it! If we are playing poker with world opinion, we are doing it expertly. Finally a White House that does disinfo right!

[HighWheeler]

AND - as a bonus, the moment it suits our needs Bush can come out and say that Osama is dead. Of course the presstitutes will want all the details.....

[HighWheeler]

Where is this pool?

[Howlin]

Very interesting. Makes as much sense as anything I've read.

I totally agree with your first #6.

[HighWheeler]

Thanks Howlin, I spent a bit of time researching and writing, I'm glad you appreciate it. I think this war has gone very well, and we hold every card left to play. I think we still have a long way to go however.

[SCHROLL]

I don't think he's assumed cave temperature just yet. I do think that we've known where he's at all along though. Given the weak kneed support that we have gotten from some of our so called allies, we have had no choice but to keep him and Omar alive for now.

Follow along with this bit of twisted logic, the only way that we keep the Taliban and Al Queda forces fighting is for them to be alive. The local Afghanis will turn at the drop of a hat, however Osama's boys will not. Using sat intell and on the ground intell we have followed them around the country. We have observed their troop deployments and using a newly armed N.A. went after them. We used our air power to turn the locals as we did in Desert Storm ie they see us and can't surrender fast enough. We deplete their forces with a minimum of ground action taking place. We've been herding them into a central location making it easier for us to take out the guys that we're really after and pretty much insulating the populace from total warfare (see winning hearts and minds).

After only a couple of weeks we have the terrorists and their handlers in two places, Kunduz and Khandahar. Now we don't have to go into every nook and cranny looking for them. Meanwhile, the peaceniks, the bleeding hearts, and the Arabs can't go off the deep end screaming stop and build any momentum against the war.

You've now managed to put your opposition in a box, and can prosecute the war on your terms with little or no loss of political capital. When the time is right, you strike the fatal blow (we went after Omar yesterday, Osama can't be too far off). Take out the remaining terrorist forces, the remaining Taliban, and finally Osama. Game, set, and match in Afghanistan. Time to aquire the next target.

[McGavin999]

I think you're right. Remember when that journalist did the last interview with him and said that he acted very different? Maybe he interviewed one of the doubles.

[SCHROLL]

Saying that you are willing to die for your cause and realizing that you're actually about to do it tends to make you act a little different.

How would Saturday about 4:30 sound Osama? Just be in your cave and let us worry about the details.

[woofie]

Go home idiot

[SCHROLL]

Took you an entire 8 days to expose yourself as an idiot or did I miss any of your earlier assinine ramblings?

[HighWheeler]

Hey SCHROLL, I just now saw on the news that Omar himself today claimed to be alive.

[MaeWest]

Bin Laden dead pool ping. (Not to be confused with the immortal pool poopie thread)