i vaguely recall rumsfeld early on discussing a war of disinformation. i believed his intention was to tip off the press that this would be a two way street. given this, bush's comments and actions would not be inconsistent with the war tactics. (in fact, i happen to believe that some of the united states/israel banter that went on while the coalition was being put together was planned to mute or at least mitigate arab nation concerns.)
i happen to believe, however, that much of the arab world believed that the taliban and al-qaeda were separate, a fact that is turning out to be false. bush was trying, i think, to show that the two worked hand in hand -- hence the edict to the taliban to turn over usama -- and bush knew they would not.
even if the taliban had turned over usama, bush would have put pressure on the taliban to chase down the rest of his network. without taliban resistance, bombing is not necessary.
the american public will demand some specific evidence that we are succeeding in this war. usama would be a major milestone -- although as you have alluded, there is a risk that the war ends with him. i believe that we would have heard if he were killed. al-jazeera, if nobody else, would have found out and publicized it for the response it would have received.
good thoughts and nice compilation of a lot of data. even though i am skeptical of the conclusions drawn, i highly respect the work you did!