Posted on 11/21/2001 8:42:02 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuela's maverick President Hugo Chavez is fond of comparing himself to Latin America's independence ``Liberator'' Simon Bolivar.
But like his 19th century hero, the outspoken, left-leaning former paratrooper seems to be suffering a painful reversal of political fortunes in his three-year-old bid to create a ''Bolivarian Revolution'' in Venezuela.
Gone are the tumultuous, adoring crowds that feted his landslide election win in 1998, six years after he leaped to fame as a young army officer by leading an abortive coup.
Instead, he now faces a cacophony of criticism -- from business chiefs, the Catholic Church, the media, hostile unions, the United States and increasingly united opponents.
Once hailed, like Bolivar, as the potential ``Liberator'' of Venezuela's downtrodden masses, the 47-year-old president is now denounced by his more strident critics as a ``dictator'' and accused of everything from insensitivity to insanity.
Bolivar, his dream of a united Great Colombia in tatters, died in 1830, abandoned by many former followers and declaring bitterly: ``He who serves a revolution ploughs the sea''.
But Chavez, who describes himself as an optimist, shows no sign of abandoning his attempt to introduce ``peaceful, democratic revolution'' in a South American nation that combines fabulous oil and mineral riches with grinding poverty.
``I feel very sure about what I'm doing, and I feel the affection of the people wherever I go,'' he said this month.
But even impartial observers describe his political program as slow-moving and ineptly executed at best, while critics shrilly deride it as a ``Revolution of saliva'', bereft of real action and existing only in Chavez's long, meandering speeches.
Political analysts now put the mercurial president's popularity at its lowest point since his 1998 election, although they acknowledge he still commands substantial support among the poor majority of Venezuela's 24 million people.
P0LITICAL OPPONENTS GATHER STRENGTH
Analysts cite a series of recent domestic opinion polls that show the president's popularity down by a third or more from the heady levels of three years ago. The government dismisses these polls as biased in favor of the opposition.
In a more palpable sign of discontent, live presidential broadcasts in the last few weeks were greeted in parts of Caracas with a noisy ``cacerolazo'' -- the beating of pots and pans which is a traditional form of popular protest here.
Observers say the broad-based electoral alliance that once supported Chavez has shrunk, while his political opponents are gathering forces to try to squeeze him from power.
Teodoro Petkoff, a former guerrilla and government minister turned newspaper editor, blames Chavez's confrontational style for alienating both supporters and potential allies alike.
This ``bumper car'' style, as Petkoff puts it, has prevented Chavez from forging a national consensus to push through his ''revolutionary'' policies to close the gap between rich and poor and develop and diversify Venezuela's oil-dependent economy.
Petkoff, who edits the opposition daily TalCual, sees Chavez as ``a trapeze artist performing without a safety net.''
``If his popularity fails, he hits the floor,'' he said.
The Chavez government's apparent inability to make good its oft-repeated public promises to tackle unabated violent crime, widespread poverty and unemployment in Venezuela is clearly frustrating and disappointing many ordinary citizens.
``What Chavez has been losing is the benefit of the doubt ... people want jobs, safety on the streets and obviously they judge the government very badly on both,'' said Luis Vicente Leon of the private polling company Datanalisis.
WILL CHAVEZ SEEK CONSENSUS OR CONFLICT?
Analysts are waiting to see whether the blunt-talking paratrooper-turned-president decides to change direction and seek a national consensus, or whether he will respond with even more radical, confrontational tactics.
``I'm not sure he's ready to negotiate,'' said Leon.
Ignoring objections from business leaders and workers' representatives, Chavez's cabinet this month pushed through radical agrarian and oil reforms the president said would boost economic development and ``deepen the Revolution''.
Critics of the laws, which aim to redistribute idle land to peasants and maximize state oil revenue, say they will hurt the economy, spook foreign investors and stir up social conflict.
The next general election is not due until 2006. But Chavez's political opponents, whom he berates as ``squalid'', propose a range of constitutional measures to try to oust him.
These proposals range from a referendum, which to go ahead requires the support of 10 percent of the electorate, to a move by the opposition Accion Democratica (AD) party to have the president impeached on the grounds of mental incapacity.
AD leaders cite the precedent of Ecuador's eccentric ex-president Abdala Bucaram, who was removed in 1997 by Ecuador's Congress after being declared ``mentally incompetent''.
Like Bucaram, Chavez enjoys public sing-along sessions.
In rambling TV appearances, he lectures the nation on his personal opinions and memories, pausing for emphasis to beat out chimes on an xylophone given to him by his young daughter.
But few analysts see the impeachment scenario as likely. The Venezuelan president used the momentum of his 1998 election to topple an opposition-dominated Congress and install a legislature and Supreme Court dominated by his supporters.
While critics say his rule could lead to a political crisis, Chavez confidently asserts that Venezuela's democracy and economy are among the most solid in Latin America.
Although his stocky figure bears little physical resemblance to the angular features of his historical idol, the Venezuelan leader invokes Bolivar in almost every breath.
Many analysts are at a loss to classify the ``Bolivarian'' ideology that Chavez professes.
``Chavez's proposal of revolution is not clear ... he's a hybrid,'' political commentator Alberto Garrido said.
He sees in the Venezuelan leader an ill-defined amalgam of left-wing nationalism combined with a crusading belief in social justice and equality that seems inspired, at least in part, by Cuba's Fidel Castro and his socialist Revolution.
Garrido also sees Chavez displaying strong ``militarist'' tendencies, for example in the way he has promoted loyal followers in the armed forces to positions in government and also involved the military in high-profile social projects.
``A process that has reduced political parties to a minimum and increased the protagonism of the military to a maximum is already treading a knife edge between democracy and dictatorship,'' Garrido said. ``Any sudden movement could give you the final definition,'' he added.
This guy sounds like he is more than few fries short of a Happy Meal, but...
But few analysts see the impeachment scenario as likely. The Venezuelan president used the momentum of his 1998 election to topple an opposition-dominated Congress and install a legislature and Supreme Court dominated by his supporters.
It doesn't look like he and his little pals will go without a push.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez (L) chats with a Dakota indian from Canada in Caracas November 13, 2001. Chavez, a left-leaning former paratrooper, seems to be suffering a painful reversal of political fortunes in his three-year-old bid to create a "Bolivarian Revolution" in Venezuela. REUTERS/Kimberly White
Unfortunately, Latin America has always been a hotbed for revolutionaries, anarchists,and various left-wing & right-wing dissident groups. Also a none-too-pretty gaggle of authoritarian governments ranging from fairly benign to brutal.
I'll add my contribution here:
BTW, if you haven't seen it, this is worth a look for the commentary which follows:
And happy Thanksgiving to ya'all!
Soooooooooo funny!
Accented with good luck beads, no less.
Happy Thanksgiving to all.
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