To Fight A Trade War With Terrorist Supporter

I am a Chinese living outside of China. The following is based on my personal experience and observation.

The China Government (with all her propaganda machines) has been nurturing the anti-American sentiment among her citizen after the Embassy bombing in Yogoslavia and the spy plane incident over South China Sea.

For decades, the Chinese Government has used nationalism to rally support from the mass public. As the Chinese saying goes: “Kill two birds with one stone”. The equation is simple -- The more they hate the America devil, the more they will support (and/or more tolerant to) their own government and the oppression. In this respect, they have achieved remarkable success in recent years.

If you can read Chinese and have monitored the Chinese open-discussion forums on the internet and the phone-in programs on the radio over the last 3 years, you won’t be surprised to find that public opinion is lopsided anti-American (up to an extreme ratio of 99 to 1). Any neutral opinion is automatically labeled as treasonous, not to mention pro-American. After the publication of the now notorious “Asymmetrical Warfare” by the PLA officials, the net was suddenly flooded with “1001 bizarre and grotesque ways to attack U.S.A.”.

I remember one Chinese geologist suggested smuggling and burying a nuclear device deep underground (right over the fault) in San Francisco to trigger an earth quake that kills millions of Americans. Among other equally grotesque schemes are spreading foot and mouth disease among U.S. livestock (poisoning milk, water, food, etc.); hacking the NYSE and Pentagon computers to deliver a heavy blow on U.S. both financially and militarily. The list goes on and on.

Their saber rattling was so intense and heated that for the first week after the Sept 11 attack, I have trouble clearing the suspicion in my mind that the attack was actually masterminded by the Chinese military (or at least a radical faction of the PLA). On Sept 12th and 13th, I was literally waiting for the Chinese to push the button and launch a nuclear attack on U.S. soil any moment. (Thanks to U.S. technology sold to China in the Clinton era, Beijing now have at least 24 long-range missiles capable of hitting most of U.S. cities, with warheads equivalent to 5 million tons TNT.) Of course, you can laugh at my paranoia now but during that horrible week, I was really frightened. Why?

If Jiang did push the button when the U.S. was at its weakest and most chaotic moment, I believe they might have a more than 50% chance to succeed. Until today, there are still many posters on Chinese internet forums that calls Jiang a wimp and criticize their government for missing an historical opportunity to finish the arrogant U.S. devil once and for all. Fortunately, President Bush’s resolve, poise and determination that prevented the country from plunging into further chaos had saved the day. Anyway, it was a close call.

Thanks to the Clinton administration, America’s military force is reduced to a state that it cannot handle two full scale conflicts on different fronts. Clinton’s best friend Jiang knows this too. His only concern is that a war with the U.S. at this stage is not to the best advantage of the Communist Party’s stability and China’s economy. In other words, Jiang also knows that their 24 nuclear missiles can only deliver a lethal blow to the U.S. but China lacks the financial power to fight it through victory. With the American commercial sectors and multi-national companies prostituting their national interests for business profits in China, this day will come very soon.

The Sept 11th attack on America is a God-send to Jiang and his government. I must credit the old wolf for his sly and cunning “two face, double talk” maneuver -- paying lip service to fight terrorism on one hand (thus avoiding direct conflict with U.S.) and trying his best to pin down the American military force in a prolonged Middle East conflict on the other. I am a great supporter of President Bush but his only wrong move is to ally China to fight terrorism. It is a big political joke. Can’t you see Jiang is patronizing Bush in APEC?

The last thing that Jiang wants to see is a quick and effective American victory in Afghanistan. China was and still is a staunch supporter of the Taliban (and other terrorist groups in South East Asia). They don’t want to have one more pro-American neighbor after the war, especially when the nuclear armed Pakistani Government has apparently shifted one foot to the U.S. camp.

China doesn’t want the Taliban to win either. Their existence and survival under America’s overwhelming force is already considered a great victory. The China’s best scenario is that the Afghan war becomes a hemorrhage on U.S. now weakened economy and military power for the next 10 years (or as long as it can be). If the U.S. is tied down in Afghanistan fighting a politically correct and limited war; and with the help of the peaceniks and pacifists within America, this would be Jiang’s dream come true. China will have a much bigger room and free hand to continue with her aggression in Asia, with or without help from North Korea. With entering the WTO imminent, China’s only obstacle in making a military move on Taiwan is the coming 2008 Olympic which will be hosted by Beijing.

With the imminent downturn of the US and the world economy, China is the only country in the world which can sustain a 7% to 8% GDP growth. I am not an economist, but how long does it take for China to rival the U.S. as a world leader and superpower?

Wake up and watch your back, America! Don’t be childish. Communist China is NOT your “Strategic Partner” and never will be!

To answer this question, the following (highlighted) are excerpts from fellow poster “juval” under other threads in reply to mine. (They do not necessarily represent my view and are posted here for your reference only. )

CIA predicts China's GDP will overtake America's by 2015, and Warren Buffett predicts US stock market will literally flatline through 2015. Plus, US still has $6 trillion in national debt.

America is the most influential country in the world today because, simply, its economy is biggest. It's that simple. America's economy is about 5 times larger than Germany's because 280 mil. people (US population) can obviously have greater economic output than just 80 mil. people (German population). From the time Columbus discovered America, America's population has mostly increased due to immigration (European, Asian, etc.). That's how America got such a large population and, thus, economy, tax base, and military. Without immigration today, America's population growth wouldn't even increase. Wealthy, middle-class Americans average only 2 or fewer children per family. China’s population today is 4.6 times that of America’s.

China's GDP now is about $5 trillion, while America's is $10 trillion. Given the faster growth rate of China's economy, China's GDP is expected to overtake America's around 2015, when China's GDP is about $15 trillion versus America's $14 trillion. This is just a matter of time (if no one do anything to reverse the existing trend).

As for America's economy, there's an important article in Fortune magazine by Buffett in which he predicted that the Dow would stay flat through 2015 as a result of the likelihood of long-term interest rates being likely to rise from now through 2015. This is because rates are currently historically low, which means they're bound to return upward to historical norms in the future. Interest rates directly affect stock valuation: the higher the rate, the lower the fair value of any stock. In fact, Buffett has been right. Stocks have basically flatlined since the end of 1998: the Dow closed at 9,181 at the end of 1998 and today the Dow is practically unchanged from that. Buffett says the 1998-2015 period with respect to the stock market will be a virtual repeat of the 1964-1981 (Vietnam War era). During 1964-81, guess how much the Dow rose over that entire period? Just 1 point. Dow started 1964 at 874 and ended 1981 at 875. Yes, it can happen again, because the interest rate situation today is the same as then (historically low, so bound to rise higher, causing stock valuations to stay flat for the entire 17-year period).

Exports make a much smaller percentage of China's total GDP compared to most other Asian nations. Exports make up 22% of China's GDP vs. 40-70% for Taiwan, S. Korea, Singapore, Thailand, etc. The world economic downturn is hurting these countries much more than China. Their GDP's are negative while China's is still growing at 7%, thanks to the power of China's domestic economy (78% of China's GDP) which is the world's biggest market now for everything from air conditioners and elevators to cell phone and beer. See table at http://www.asiaweek.com/asiaweek/magazine/dateline/0,8782,172286,00.html

When asked what is the impact of the Sept 11 attack on China’s economy, a grim faced Chinese Financial Ministry official answered: “Yes, export is bad. We have to tune down our projected GDP growth by 0.2 to 0.3%.” I have an inborn distrust of Chinese officials. I double the figure and it is still as insignificant as half a percentage point.

I predict this post would trigger a “Don’t Buy Anything Made In China” campaign. But, no use. Firstly, China’s nationalism fanatics have been screaming for years: “Don’t buy Toyota and Sony!”. Yet, they are still the hottest items in the China market (Taking into consideration that Japan is their second public enemy in China. America is the first.). Secondly, American consumer would end up paying more for the same product if they purchase elsewhere. This would only hurt the U.S. economy and retail business more than the Chinese.

As you all know, there is a great deficit in the current U.S.-China trade. The key is to narrow the deficit, if not to reverse the ever widening trend. You have to fight the trade war on a more leveled battle ground. Fight them in their softest spot and weakest sector. With entering the WTO imminent, China cannot subsidize their agricultural sector anymore. America’s agri business is much more cost effective than China’s.

A study shows that the cost of China’s crop being 20 to 70% higher than that of America’s (depending on variety). Regarding efficiency, China takes 75% of its population to feed 1.3 billion, where there is only 1% agricultural population in America and they can generate enough surplus for exports. Combined with cutting-edge genetic and bio-chem engineering, America’s agri products can overwhelm the Chinese domestic market. The profit is three fold.

1) Agro exports to China is a profit making business and can generate a lot of jobs. Thus, benefiting America’s economy. The improved economy of scale also means that American consumer can enjoy cheaper food due to increased production.

2) China’s rural population constitutes 75% of her total population. For half a century, these farmers (at the lowest echelon of China’s social structure) are already screwed and cheated by their Government and gained nothing from the recent economic growth. Just imagine when they are driven out of business by much cheaper and better quality U.S. exports, what will happen then?

I expect to see social unrest and uprising mushrooming everywhere inside China. The Central Government will have no option but to divert their financial resources from the big cities just to keep them fed and pacified. Remember, these rural people are mostly illiterate and they care sh_t about communist or socialist ideology. A social uprising in this scale (1 billion) will both slow down China’s economy development AND probably keep the PLA (China’s People’s Liberation Army) extremely busy to control the mobs.

3) Regardless of the massive size of China’s agribusiness, until today China is still a net importer of rice -- their staple food. Furthermore, desertfication and city development is already eroding their arable land -- meaning that China will be increasingly dependent on food imports. Just imagine the leverage gained when the U.S. becomes the biggest food supplier of China.

To implement this strategy and to achieve the primary objective of hi-jacking China’s rice bowl, you need to have a dedicated department running this operation. According to my acquaintances within the U.S. embassy in this part of the world, the U.S. Dept of Commerce is just a safe haven rewarding retired government officials. They are not aggressive enough. And, the U.S. Dept of Agriculture is just too preoccupied with domestic affairs. Traditionally, they are not export and marketing oriented enough.

You need to have strategists with long-term vision and determination like Donald Rumsfeld running this department and take this commercial operation to a military-like level. America has to attack the market on all fronts, be it rice, soy, maize, wheat, vegetables, fruits, livestock, poultry, cotton, and etc. Strike them with overwhelming force. Everything from logistics, marketing, distribution to warehousing have to be streamlined to achieve maximum cost efficiency. Satellite and infrared imaging technology can be employed to monitor overall crop plantations and conditions in China, thus giving an accurate picture on production, supply and pricing strategy. In peace time, food supply is a major asset. In war time, food is as important as ammunition.

China’s basic survival is being threatened to a stage that an immediate expansion is imminent and becomes the only option. This may be driven by internal need and/or political pressure from her military. China’s ruling party, the CCP, sees their stepping down from power as a death sentence. They fear that they would be shredded to molecules by the long oppressed mass public in a bloody uprising or revolution. So, they would and prepare to do anything just to stay in power. If the CCP’s existence is being threatened in any way, they will wage a war with America to divert public attention and rally them in support of the government.

Hello FreepForever. What an outstanding discussion this has been so far. I've particularly enjoyed the information and perspective you've brought to bear on this topic. Some of us here have suspected PRC as the "silent partner" behind the current world war, whose opening shot was the attack on the WTC -- if not directly, then indirectly, through giving aid and comfort and technology to terrorist groups, and then just "stirring the pot" til the inevitable outbreak of hostilities would occur.

And I agree with you and zog, that PRC must "expand" (i.e., via "theft" -- i.e., conquest) in order to stay in power. What is news to me is that there are pockets of resistence within Chinese society that make the CCP uncomfortable -- and thus dangerous. I knew about the Falun Gong, anti-Christian, and other persecutions of course. But I didn't realize the extent to which CCP has gone to propagandize its own people against the United States over the past several years. I do see the dangerous necessity from CCP's point of view of identifying "external threats" in order to distract attention from critical domestic problems inside China.

As you say, no way is PRC a "strategic partner" of the United States -- or of anybody else, for that matter. The regime survives by craftiness and expediency, not by what we in the West might call civilized principles. To me, the biggest mystery of all is that there are American multinational corporations who are so deluded as to think it is possible to do business with PRC.

First of all, this potentially "vast consumer market" seems to be a total mirage. It may be vast, but there's little money there for Western goods (with the exception, as you note, of agricultural products -- the necessities of life). What good is it if there are lots of people with no money to spend? And if you're going there for "cheap labor" -- to pay cheap wages -- they still don't have much money to spend.

A second point is, if any of these multinationals had any sense of history, they should know that confiscations and nationalizations of Western investments have occurred in the past, and could occur again.

There is a third point: if these multinationals continue to work against the national interests of the countries in which they are domiciled, then it seems to me that they ought to be regarded as plainly treasonous -- and prosecutable at law. (Bernie Schwartz from Loral Corp. comes to mind as a recent example; Henry Kissinger possibly might fit the bill also.)

These multinationals have the protection of U.S. law -- contractual, copyright, patent and other (none of which means a thing inside China today) -- which makes it possible for them to do business in the first place. And then they seek to undermine the nation that upholds and defends the very law that protects their interests -- for some perceived benefit that is more illusion than real? This is the part I don't "get."

If U.S.-based multinationals do not feel they have a duty of loyalty to their own country, then maybe they should consider doing business elsewhere. If they think PRC is such a good place, well -- may they relocate there and good luck to them. All their "stuff" would likely end up in the hands of PLA and other elites inside Chinese society in due course, and they'd be given the boot -- or worse.

In the final analysis, there is nothing in Communism that respects the necessary conditions of real economic development: free markets, individual initiative and creativity, the right of private property, the right of contract, etc. Which is why China remains a third-world, economic basket case to this day; and why the Soviet Union finally simply gave up the ghost. And the system cannot be "fixed" as long as the CCP continues to deny the sanctity of the individual. (I'd argue the latter is fundamentally what has made America great.)

Thank you for your excellent contributions, FreepForever. I hope you'll write again, whenever the spirit moves you. Best wishes -- bb.

**To me, the biggest mystery of all is that there are American multinational corporations who are so deluded as to think it is possible to do business with PRC. **

Allow me to comment on several points. Please understand that these comments are dealing with subtle concepts in relation to the general points made.

To me there appears to be a sudden lack of awareness as to what is going on above this conflict and behind the scenes of what the general public is aware.

When one is in contact with or reading remarks from major multinational leaders of industry, commerce and finance, one hears them using the term 'stable' or seeking 'stability' in the markets they are in or desire to enter. They don't use the term peace or peaceful.

Stability means 'state control of the people'.

Peaceful means 'people controlling themselves'.

The comments from these leaders is that they don't mind who or what controls the people as long as it is stable.

When these leaders try to work in China they are informed that to do business in China they must lobby the USA government to certain situations that are of concern to the Chinese.

The multinationals DO NOT feel any loyalty to the USA over anyother nation. They say they have a loyalty to their shareholders. That money has no morality or ethics.

This was the very reason Kruschev stated that the USA was only concerned about selling things and the USSR would sell the rope to the USA to let the USA hang itsself and 'then we will bury you'.

We the People of the USA hopefully will become aware of how we are being preempted on all sides. This ain't no easy one day conundrum. Pleasure was our state, Blindness was our condition.

We maymake headway on one front, then we have 10 or 12 other fronts on which to work. It is problematic as to how we will be able to work on all fronts at the same time.

Do we even know we have such a problem?

**Yeah, but why do the multinational businessmen think their investments would be secure in PRC the first place? The state there doesn't just control people -- it controls everything. **

Number One, since about 1997 there has been a drastic change in the speeches given by multinational business leaders. For several large reasons. The 'Rules of the Game' have changed. The obvious redesign of the UN. That brought in NGO's(non governmental organizations) as writers of the new regulations and also enforcers of those regulations down at the community level. That means they are at the height of the structure and the bottom. They are to be dealt with carefully. Most of the 1800 NGO's sanctioned by the UN are aimed in some way at the environment and it's "protection". A good number of these NGO's are Billion Dollar organizations. The Businesses Partner with the NGO's and then can move money and assets across any border at their will. No country has the authority to look at their books or tax the movement of their money as long as they have partnered with an NGO.

The World Economic Forum is well attended. Businesses-Governments-NGO's meet and discuss challenges. They will possibly meet in New York Next year. Listen to them and then read their magazine "World Link". It is also on the web. Only certain book stores have the magazines.

There are two comments these people will make:

"Businesses must step in now to solve problems that governments can't."

"Socialism nor Globalization can solve our problems. We must follow a 'Third Way'."

The businesses partner with NGO's and then they both Partner with City Councils and other governmental agencies to accomplish what the Governments 'can not do by themselves.

Bill Clinton, Tony Blair, Chiroc, Schroeder and many others have tied themselves and their economies to the 'Third Way'. Socialism and Globaliztion(read it Capitalism) will be combined as never before to accomplish what all Communist states have wanted and never achieved. There has to be a way to pay for State Control. The New Socialist Man will be rather dull and unimaginative but will show up for work each day to sweep the streets and keep the boilers stoked. There has to be an Elite that operates a 'free market'. Remember, Free Market means free of governmental control. I'll bet you can see all sort of reasons this won't work. Well, they will have 1001 tweeks that will keep it going.

Now the last and most unbelievable reason for multinationals and other businesses to go to China.

The largest economy in the world(USA) is saturated with all the products we can buy. For Companies to continue to grow they MUST find large markets to develop. Otherwise the stock market begins to gently come down over a period of years. OR all other investments are taken away by IRS so that the stock market is the only game for investment. I am using the phrase 'stock market' to cover a series of financial investments.

Now, what could our government do to help pay for all these companies to Move lock stock and barrel to any other country in the world??

Our beneficent overlords have set up OPIC. It is a governmental department that loans the funds to move overseas, insure the company against riots or terrorists and helps the company work with Ex-Im Bank. That is another agency that will help you sell your products and subsidize any costs above your sale price in the US.

NOW. Stop screaming. Take a deep breath. Calm down and realize I do not speak with a forked tongue. What I have said is all true. Read the info and go to the seminars, write to certain people for explanations and you will discover the validity of this reply.

If You were head of Loral or Phillips or an oil drilling company or a toy manufacturer what would you do if your consultant just told you how to increase sales, assets, market share, stock price and of course your bonus.

You be one sharp cookie to go to China. Wouldn't you???

Now let's talk about the Political part of the equation.

As a business leader you will look around and see that it seems the USA and Europe seem to be writing all the rules to this game and making it possible for you to succede. Only after getting to China and having read some translations of their news papers do you realize that the Chinese are 'using' these rules until they are able to take over the World Order THEMSELVES. But you must meet next quarters projections and you lower your head and get to work. The polititians will have to work everythingelse out.

Does this make the American Tax payer sound dumb to pay for all this??????????

Who are the smart cookies on our side??????

And none of this has stopped because of a war on terrorism.

NOW. Stop screaming. Take a deep breath. Calm down and realize I do not speak with a forked tongue. What I have said is all true.

I'm not screaming, and I don't need to calm down, my friend. And I'm sure from a narrow human perspective, surveilling the fallout of the recent hideous events, that what you have said is all true -- from the vantage point of a man who reads reality from the position of a victim seemingly captured by that hypothetical reality. (It's a circular kind of effect. So gain the larger horizon.) Surely I do not believe that you, Slingshot, speak with a "forked tongue."

I'm simply happy to rest on my main point. Which is: Reality is, well, Reality. There isn't much folks can do to change the rules of the game of Reality: We live contingently, finitely in IT for however long we draw breath in this existence. IT does not live by any act of human will that can change one iota of the divine will, regardless of whatever may be of our wishes, hopes, and dreams of the passing moment of a "more perfect world." There is no more perfect world than what the Lord has given into our stewardship, and God is the sole judge of how well we carry out the duties He has entrusted to his beloved son, Man.

Man cannot perfect the fundaments of the world that God has entrusted to his care. Man's job is to carry through the responsibilities charged to him by his Creator; not change the rules of the game -- which is entirely beyond human initiative and power in any case. Notwithstanding the seductive blandishments of the Great Liar, Satan, to the contrary.

To put my point bluntly: Man does not make up the rules of conduct for the universe. God makes the rules: They are embedded in the structure of human and natural existence of every kind. Man may violate these rules to his heart's content; but he can never successfully evade them -- at least, not in the long run.

History is littered with the shipwrecks of human hubris: Reality is stubborn and will not change to accommodate human vanity, greed, ambition, narrow self-interest, or power-lust. Period. And I'll take that precious insight to my grave.

And this is the reason why the mighty are laid low; why the meek shall inherit the earth; why the first shall be last, and the last, first.

We human beings maybe are poised to learn this lesson the hard way, "one more time." (The human race has been here before, after all.) And there is suffering -- great suffering potentially -- in that. But we must never forget that this is GOD'S CREATION. And that there are unalterable limits to the amount of human damage that can prevail against God's order. And that He looks after his beloved faithful at all times -- in this life and in all eternity.

If this isn't the very font of human courage in the face of looming disaster, then I do not know what is. Be of good faith, dear Slingshot. And be of good cheer: God will surely bless you, dear friend -- bb.

. . . no way is PRC a "strategic partner" of the United States -- or of anybody else, for that matter. The regime survives by craftiness and expediency, not by what we in the West might call civilized principles. To me, the biggest mystery of all is that there are American multinational corporations who are so deluded as to think it is possible to do business with PRC. . .

if these multinationals continue to work against the national interests of the countries in which they are domiciled, then it seems to me that they ought to be regarded as plainly treasonous -- and prosecutable at law. (Bernie Schwartz from Loral Corp. comes to mind as a recent example; Henry Kissinger possibly might fit the bill also.)

As you may know, I spent many years within the middle ranks at the headquarters of several multinational corporations and experienced first hand the sense that there were national security and other lines that simply were not crossed juxtaposed with the intense and intensifying drive to grow revenues and profit.

It was a deep and infuriating shock to me when it became known that Loral and others had sold our national security to the Chinese with the complicity of the Clinton Administration, for it was confirmation of the decline of our national moral sense. I had been proud to be a "member" of the U.S. multinational business community.

The glossing over of this most fundamental issue of our national security by our politicians, multinational business community, academia and "media elite" with a voice of unanimous silence is a dereliction of duty so deep as to be inconceivable to me a short few decades ago, and where we find ourselves in this relentless process of degradation is well-described by Paul Craig Roberts in his Washington Times Column. We have been in the process of selling our National Soul. The rot is now pervasive.

In times past, it was nigh on impossible to hold a prominent position without at least being a churchgoer, and that was a suitable salute to the Christian morality -- hard work and honest dealing -- that was, and is, at the root of our prosperity. This last point is so simple and fundamental, and yet we seem so culturally blind to it. Where there is corruption, you will not find prosperity. Pick any nation in Latin America. And resources are not the key. Japan is bereft of resources and Brazil has more natural resources than the United States. And our "leadership" is becoming more corrupt, or at least less courageous and honest, by the year.

**He looks after his beloved faithful at all times **

When God was speaking to Jeremiah and telling him what severe words to use on the leaders of his day Jeremiah told God that the King would have him killed for saying those things. The response by God has stuck with me since I first read it. I am paraphrasing. Do what I said and I will see you through.

In my reply there was no intent to leave out God. I was intending to expose just the hem of the situation business leaders live in.

**We human beings maybe are poised to learn this lesson the hard way, "one more time." (The human race has been here before, after all.) And there is suffering -- great suffering potentially -- in that. But we must never forget that this is GOD'S CREATION. And that there are unalterable limits to the amount of human damage that can prevail against God's order. And that He looks after his beloved faithful at all times -- in this life and in all eternity. **

In agreeing with you let me say that I am a long term optimist.(That means I know God will win.) My optimism for the present and short term is constrained but enhanced when acts of mercy and kindness and love and heroism and courage under fire are brought to my attention. One time a man that God was dealing with thought he was the only one. God said No, there are 7000 more.

Ignorance is Bliss...... for a while, and then sorrow.

Knowledge is sorrow..... for a while, and then Bliss.

To follow and observe the actions on the world's stage is to be aware of gloom and doom. As one who is a joint Heir my optimism is solid, my Faith is in God(there is no one else), so I observe in order to see the the Hand of God move in the affairs of men. For those aware of Him, we have been saved from greater catastrophies here recently in front of our very eyes.

Our Gratitude should know no bounds.

The best to you each morning.

Yes, it is my view that PRC will not make a military move against Taiwan before the 2008 Olympic. Reasons: 1) Olympic is an international PR event. A war before that would destroy whatever little good PR that the PRC has in the international arena. 2) An Olympic boycotted by all the first world countries would look very bad on China’s “face”. They don’t want to host the worst Olympic in history. 3) An across-the-board worldwide economic sanction (very probably military blockade too) is devastating to their economy. 4) An invasion WILL almost definitely invoke a direct military conflict with Japan and South Korea, where the US have military bases. The whole Asia will become very unstable. Under these circumstances, the Olympic may be canceled.

Mind you, the above is based on the assumption that everything is stable and secured within China. However, things may drastically change when China becomes internally unstable (either economically, militarily or politically) and need to use an aggressive military action to divert public attention and rally the mass in support of the government. In this case, factors like the Olympic, economic growth, PR will all become secondary considerations.

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