[beckett]

Very interesting post. It's always a pleasure to find a little gem on FR that has the ring of authenticity about it.

As I read your remarks, you don't think China would contemplate taking Taiwan before the Olympics in 2008. Is that correct?

[FreepForever]

Yes, it is my view that PRC will not make a military move against Taiwan before the 2008 Olympic. Reasons: 1) Olympic is an international PR event. A war before that would destroy whatever little good PR that the PRC has in the international arena. 2) An Olympic boycotted by all the first world countries would look very bad on China’s “face”. They don’t want to host the worst Olympic in history. 3) An across-the-board worldwide economic sanction (very probably military blockade too) is devastating to their economy. 4) An invasion WILL almost definitely invoke a direct military conflict with Japan and South Korea, where the US have military bases. The whole Asia will become very unstable. Under these circumstances, the Olympic may be canceled.

Mind you, the above is based on the assumption that everything is stable and secured within China. However, things may drastically change when China becomes internally unstable (either economically, militarily or politically) and need to use an aggressive military action to divert public attention and rally the mass in support of the government. In this case, factors like the Olympic, economic growth, PR will all become secondary considerations.