Posted on 11/06/2001 9:55:05 AM PST by FreepForever
I am a Chinese living outside of China. The following is based on my personal experience and observation.
The China Government (with all her propaganda machines) has been nurturing the anti-American sentiment among her citizen after the Embassy bombing in Yogoslavia and the spy plane incident over South China Sea.
For decades, the Chinese Government has used nationalism to rally support from the mass public. As the Chinese saying goes: Kill two birds with one stone. The equation is simple -- The more they hate the America devil, the more they will support (and/or more tolerant to) their own government and the oppression. In this respect, they have achieved remarkable success in recent years.
If you can read Chinese and have monitored the Chinese open-discussion forums on the internet and the phone-in programs on the radio over the last 3 years, you wont be surprised to find that public opinion is lopsided anti-American (up to an extreme ratio of 99 to 1). Any neutral opinion is automatically labeled as treasonous, not to mention pro-American. After the publication of the now notorious Asymmetrical Warfare by the PLA officials, the net was suddenly flooded with 1001 bizarre and grotesque ways to attack U.S.A..
I remember one Chinese geologist suggested smuggling and burying a nuclear device deep underground (right over the fault) in San Francisco to trigger an earth quake that kills millions of Americans. Among other equally grotesque schemes are spreading foot and mouth disease among U.S. livestock (poisoning milk, water, food, etc.); hacking the NYSE and Pentagon computers to deliver a heavy blow on U.S. both financially and militarily. The list goes on and on.
Their saber rattling was so intense and heated that for the first week after the Sept 11 attack, I have trouble clearing the suspicion in my mind that the attack was actually masterminded by the Chinese military (or at least a radical faction of the PLA). On Sept 12th and 13th, I was literally waiting for the Chinese to push the button and launch a nuclear attack on U.S. soil any moment. (Thanks to U.S. technology sold to China in the Clinton era, Beijing now have at least 24 long-range missiles capable of hitting most of U.S. cities, with warheads equivalent to 5 million tons TNT.) Of course, you can laugh at my paranoia now but during that horrible week, I was really frightened. Why?
If Jiang did push the button when the U.S. was at its weakest and most chaotic moment, I believe they might have a more than 50% chance to succeed. Until today, there are still many posters on Chinese internet forums that calls Jiang a wimp and criticize their government for missing an historical opportunity to finish the arrogant U.S. devil once and for all. Fortunately, President Bushs resolve, poise and determination that prevented the country from plunging into further chaos had saved the day. Anyway, it was a close call.
Thanks to the Clinton administration, Americas military force is reduced to a state that it cannot handle two full scale conflicts on different fronts. Clintons best friend Jiang knows this too. His only concern is that a war with the U.S. at this stage is not to the best advantage of the Communist Partys stability and Chinas economy. In other words, Jiang also knows that their 24 nuclear missiles can only deliver a lethal blow to the U.S. but China lacks the financial power to fight it through victory. With the American commercial sectors and multi-national companies prostituting their national interests for business profits in China, this day will come very soon.
The Sept 11th attack on America is a God-send to Jiang and his government. I must credit the old wolf for his sly and cunning two face, double talk maneuver -- paying lip service to fight terrorism on one hand (thus avoiding direct conflict with U.S.) and trying his best to pin down the American military force in a prolonged Middle East conflict on the other. I am a great supporter of President Bush but his only wrong move is to ally China to fight terrorism. It is a big political joke. Cant you see Jiang is patronizing Bush in APEC?
The last thing that Jiang wants to see is a quick and effective American victory in Afghanistan. China was and still is a staunch supporter of the Taliban (and other terrorist groups in South East Asia). They dont want to have one more pro-American neighbor after the war, especially when the nuclear armed Pakistani Government has apparently shifted one foot to the U.S. camp.
China doesnt want the Taliban to win either. Their existence and survival under Americas overwhelming force is already considered a great victory. The Chinas best scenario is that the Afghan war becomes a hemorrhage on U.S. now weakened economy and military power for the next 10 years (or as long as it can be). If the U.S. is tied down in Afghanistan fighting a politically correct and limited war; and with the help of the peaceniks and pacifists within America, this would be Jiangs dream come true. China will have a much bigger room and free hand to continue with her aggression in Asia, with or without help from North Korea. With entering the WTO imminent, Chinas only obstacle in making a military move on Taiwan is the coming 2008 Olympic which will be hosted by Beijing.
With the imminent downturn of the US and the world economy, China is the only country in the world which can sustain a 7% to 8% GDP growth. I am not an economist, but how long does it take for China to rival the U.S. as a world leader and superpower?
Wake up and watch your back, America! Dont be childish. Communist China is NOT your Strategic Partner and never will be!
To answer this question, the following (highlighted) are excerpts from fellow poster juval under other threads in reply to mine. (They do not necessarily represent my view and are posted here for your reference only. )
CIA predicts China's GDP will overtake America's by 2015, and Warren Buffett predicts US stock market will literally flatline through 2015. Plus, US still has $6 trillion in national debt.
America is the most influential country in the world today because, simply, its economy is biggest. It's that simple. America's economy is about 5 times larger than Germany's because 280 mil. people (US population) can obviously have greater economic output than just 80 mil. people (German population). From the time Columbus discovered America, America's population has mostly increased due to immigration (European, Asian, etc.). That's how America got such a large population and, thus, economy, tax base, and military. Without immigration today, America's population growth wouldn't even increase. Wealthy, middle-class Americans average only 2 or fewer children per family. Chinas population today is 4.6 times that of Americas.
China's GDP now is about $5 trillion, while America's is $10 trillion. Given the faster growth rate of China's economy, China's GDP is expected to overtake America's around 2015, when China's GDP is about $15 trillion versus America's $14 trillion. This is just a matter of time (if no one do anything to reverse the existing trend).
As for America's economy, there's an important article in Fortune magazine by Buffett in which he predicted that the Dow would stay flat through 2015 as a result of the likelihood of long-term interest rates being likely to rise from now through 2015. This is because rates are currently historically low, which means they're bound to return upward to historical norms in the future. Interest rates directly affect stock valuation: the higher the rate, the lower the fair value of any stock. In fact, Buffett has been right. Stocks have basically flatlined since the end of 1998: the Dow closed at 9,181 at the end of 1998 and today the Dow is practically unchanged from that. Buffett says the 1998-2015 period with respect to the stock market will be a virtual repeat of the 1964-1981 (Vietnam War era). During 1964-81, guess how much the Dow rose over that entire period? Just 1 point. Dow started 1964 at 874 and ended 1981 at 875. Yes, it can happen again, because the interest rate situation today is the same as then (historically low, so bound to rise higher, causing stock valuations to stay flat for the entire 17-year period).
Exports make a much smaller percentage of China's total GDP compared to most other Asian nations. Exports make up 22% of China's GDP vs. 40-70% for Taiwan, S. Korea, Singapore, Thailand, etc. The world economic downturn is hurting these countries much more than China. Their GDP's are negative while China's is still growing at 7%, thanks to the power of China's domestic economy (78% of China's GDP) which is the world's biggest market now for everything from air conditioners and elevators to cell phone and beer. See table at http://www.asiaweek.com/asiaweek/magazine/dateline/0,8782,172286,00.html
When asked what is the impact of the Sept 11 attack on Chinas economy, a grim faced Chinese Financial Ministry official answered: Yes, export is bad. We have to tune down our projected GDP growth by 0.2 to 0.3%. I have an inborn distrust of Chinese officials. I double the figure and it is still as insignificant as half a percentage point.
I predict this post would trigger a Dont Buy Anything Made In China campaign. But, no use. Firstly, Chinas nationalism fanatics have been screaming for years: Dont buy Toyota and Sony!. Yet, they are still the hottest items in the China market (Taking into consideration that Japan is their second public enemy in China. America is the first.). Secondly, American consumer would end up paying more for the same product if they purchase elsewhere. This would only hurt the U.S. economy and retail business more than the Chinese.
As you all know, there is a great deficit in the current U.S.-China trade. The key is to narrow the deficit, if not to reverse the ever widening trend. You have to fight the trade war on a more leveled battle ground. Fight them in their softest spot and weakest sector. With entering the WTO imminent, China cannot subsidize their agricultural sector anymore. Americas agri business is much more cost effective than Chinas.
A study shows that the cost of Chinas crop being 20 to 70% higher than that of Americas (depending on variety). Regarding efficiency, China takes 75% of its population to feed 1.3 billion, where there is only 1% agricultural population in America and they can generate enough surplus for exports. Combined with cutting-edge genetic and bio-chem engineering, Americas agri products can overwhelm the Chinese domestic market. The profit is three fold.
1) Agro exports to China is a profit making business and can generate a lot of jobs. Thus, benefiting Americas economy. The improved economy of scale also means that American consumer can enjoy cheaper food due to increased production.
2) Chinas rural population constitutes 75% of her total population. For half a century, these farmers (at the lowest echelon of Chinas social structure) are already screwed and cheated by their Government and gained nothing from the recent economic growth. Just imagine when they are driven out of business by much cheaper and better quality U.S. exports, what will happen then?
I expect to see social unrest and uprising mushrooming everywhere inside China. The Central Government will have no option but to divert their financial resources from the big cities just to keep them fed and pacified. Remember, these rural people are mostly illiterate and they care sh_t about communist or socialist ideology. A social uprising in this scale (1 billion) will both slow down Chinas economy development AND probably keep the PLA (Chinas Peoples Liberation Army) extremely busy to control the mobs.
3) Regardless of the massive size of Chinas agribusiness, until today China is still a net importer of rice -- their staple food. Furthermore, desertfication and city development is already eroding their arable land -- meaning that China will be increasingly dependent on food imports. Just imagine the leverage gained when the U.S. becomes the biggest food supplier of China.
To implement this strategy and to achieve the primary objective of hi-jacking Chinas rice bowl, you need to have a dedicated department running this operation. According to my acquaintances within the U.S. embassy in this part of the world, the U.S. Dept of Commerce is just a safe haven rewarding retired government officials. They are not aggressive enough. And, the U.S. Dept of Agriculture is just too preoccupied with domestic affairs. Traditionally, they are not export and marketing oriented enough.
You need to have strategists with long-term vision and determination like Donald Rumsfeld running this department and take this commercial operation to a military-like level. America has to attack the market on all fronts, be it rice, soy, maize, wheat, vegetables, fruits, livestock, poultry, cotton, and etc. Strike them with overwhelming force. Everything from logistics, marketing, distribution to warehousing have to be streamlined to achieve maximum cost efficiency. Satellite and infrared imaging technology can be employed to monitor overall crop plantations and conditions in China, thus giving an accurate picture on production, supply and pricing strategy. In peace time, food supply is a major asset. In war time, food is as important as ammunition.
Stay well - stay safe - stay armed - Yorktown
I'd be interested in your comments.
www.dragonsfury-breathoffire.com
Regards ... I have the same wish ... an end to Communist Red China and a re-establishment of constitutional republican prinicples and liberty.
Let's review some of the serious issues facing China today:
(1) The Communist Chinese Legal system is one of the most primitive and juvenile systems known in the world; it is a complex amalgamation of Confucian and Taoist custom, interspersed with statute, largely criminal law and rudimentary civil code that has only been in effect since January 1, 1987. New legal codes have been in effect since January 1, 1980. Constant and major efforts are constantly being made to improve the civil, administrative, criminal, and commercial law. The concept of "stare decisis," i.e., that the law should remain the same, except for an occasional re-evaluation of precedent, is totally foreign there. In other words, the judicial system in China does not make any cogent sense. If any business needed some type of legal resolution, that convoluted judicial system would choke them. Not to mention that in any arbitration situation betwen China and another country doing business with them, the PRC could intervene, at any time, and influence the business decision to the adverse consequences of the unlucky company which did business with them in the first place;
(2) The Falungong sect and the China Democratic Party are considered serious threats and potential rivals to the People's Republic of China, and could seriously harm the stability of the government there, or any of the foreign businesses which find themselves unlucky enough to invest money there;
(3) Although in late 1978 the Chinese leadership began moving the economy from a sluggish Soviet-style centrally planned economy to a more "market-oriented system." The authorities switched to a system of household responsibility in agriculture in place of the old collectivization, but instead of democratizing the government, Communist China instead increased the authority of local officials and plant managers in industry, permitted a wide variety of small-scale enterprise in services and light manufacturing, even while declaring that they had "opened the economy" to increased foreign trade and investment. On the darker side, the leadership has often experienced, in its hybrid system, the worst results of socialism (bureaucracy and lassitude) and of capitalism (windfall gains and stepped-up inflation). Thus only a handful of the political and moneyed "elite" control the entire infrastructure of the PRC, over one billion people. And they literally have the power of life and death over everybody there. Beijing thus has periodically backtracked, having to retighten central controls at numerous and unstable intervals. The government has had a hellish time (a) collecting revenues due from provinces, businesses, and individuals; (b) reducing corruption and other economic crimes; and (c) even keeping afloat the large state-owned enterprises, many of which have been shielded from competition by subsidies, and have been losing the ability to pay full wages and pensions. From 80 to 120 million surplus rural workers are adrift between the villages and the cities, many subsisting through part-time and low-paying jobs. Popular resistance, changes in central policy, and loss of authority by rural cadres have weakened China's population control program, which is essential to maintaining growth in living standards. Another long-term threat to continued rapid economic growth is the rapid and massive levels of deterioration in the environment, notably air pollution, soil erosion, and the steady fall of the water table, especially in the north. China continues to lose arable land because of erosion and economic development. Weakness in the global economy in 2001 could cripple growth in exports;
(4) Communist China has as many as 16% of its population below the poverty line (2000 esimate) - I thought Communism was supposed to take care of that completely? I mean, you ARE giving up all of your basic and fundamental human rights in exchange for economic security, aren't you?
(5) The Communist Chinese labor force is by far one of the least skilled forces in the entire world, and will be unable to compete with the modern technologically savvy Western world. - by occupation, the PRC divides its people into agriculture 50%, industry 24%, and services 26%. Where are your techies? Your geeks? Your innovators? Your artists? Answer: they are suppressed, jailed, murdered, or "re-educated;"
(6) The unemployment rate in the PRC is staggering for a Communist nation that supposedly can cure all of society's ills: urban unemployment is roughly 18%, and there is substantial unemployment and underemployment in rural areas;
(7) Although China's exports are $232 billion a year, it's imports clock in at about $197 billion. You may think that's just fabulous, but wait until you get a load of the fact that Communist China's external debt is a whopping $162 billion. Guess that eats into their profits a little bit, huh;
(8) The PRC's roadways are still primitive - highway total is 1.4 million km, but the paved ones are only 271,300 km, while unpaved dirt roads dominate the landscape at 1,128,700 km;
(9) The PRC seems to have a military beef with nearly everyone. They have more enemies than any country I have ever heard of, and each one of them wants a piece of China's hide. Some examples of these China-hating countries include (a) India - most of the boundary with India is in dispute, (b) Russia - there is a dispute over at least two small sections of the boundary with Russia that remains to be settled, despite a 1997 boundary agreement, (c) Tajikstan, where large portions of the boundary with Tajikistan are indefinite, (d) North Korea, where a 33-km section of boundary with North Korea in the Paektu-san (mountain) area is indefinite, (e) Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, and possibly Brunei involved in a complex dispute over the Spratly Islands, (f) Vietnam (man you are going to love those guys) with disputes in maritime boundary agreements in the Gulf of Tonkin, awaiting ratification, (g) the Paracel Islands occupied by China, but claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan, (h) claims by Japanese-administered Senkaku-shoto (Senkaku Islands/Diaoyu Tai), and finally, (i) Taiwan, which detests China;
(10) Another wonderful problem the PRC faces is the illicit drug market. The PRC is a major trans-shipment point for heroin produced in the Golden Triangle, producing massive criminal activity and murder, and Communist China has an unprecedented and growing domestic drug abuse problem. The PRC is also the world's leader in the supply of such illegal substances as chemical precursors and methamphetamine.
Conclusion: I do not think China will emerge as the major power of Asia by 2015, as is being predicted by many liberals, communists, socialists, opportunists, and other academic "schlup-schwanzes.". But it is important that we, as Americans, remain vigilant, and understand that it depends upon us, the consumer, to boycott Chinese products and services, and to force our democratically elected politicians, as well as our overfed and overpaid corporate CEOs, to do the same. If we need a consumer market, and if the powers that be respond with, "labor is cheaper in China," then counter with, "Why not India?" India is democratic, free, religiously, racially, and culturally diverse and tolerant, also has roughly 1 bilion people as in China, is closely allied to the United States, is a military powerhouse, shares borders with our greatest threats, Islamic Fundamentalism and Chinese Communism, has a clear common law based legal system, is predominantly English speaking, is technologically advanced, secular, and was once a British colony like Australia and the United States. It has a deep and strong friendship with the State of Israel, and is struggling right now to make democracy work. It is the duty of every red-blooded and patriotic American to support them in their struggle, because their struggle is almost exactly the same as ours.
Freedom is not free, it requires constant upkeep and maintenance. If we no longer fight to maintain those freedoms, both physically and economically, we run the risk of no longer remaining free.
God bless the U.S.A.
We have seen a cataclysmic event in front of our eyes that covered 16 acres. The affect has been world wide but concentrated in the USA.
The Chinese don't need to be militarily stronger than us to stop us. Imagine the impact on the USA and the world if just one major city is attacked.
Therefore, we need RENEWED effort to confront and joust with ALL the different countries and entities that are aimed at us now. We will need to be willing to use preemptive force on many fronts. This has already changed our legal philosophy and legal actions against many people.
To Survive we have changed as a nation.
As individuals we will do the same.
Tyranny??? How far?????
But, is it possible you are stating why they cannot accomplish what they say they are going to do.
What if you stated the reasons they will be able to.
Then state what are the reasons we will be able to block them.
query? My analysis shows that china must make an expansioninst move well within this decade. Numerous factors involved, you have primarily touched on some in your essay, in particular their leadership's use of both foreign and external "threats" (USA, japan, india, falun gong, and etc) to keep the populace looking for enemies, instead of looking within at their own leaders, the lack of employment for almost one hundred million adults. And the realities you pointed out too, severe lack of domestic energy and fresh water, the two most viatl things necesary for both agricultural uses and manufacturing.
If they run out and "need", and cannot "pay", that leaves 'take", in other words. And nations "take" by warfare, that is the only option that's ever available usually.
So, do you think that there is a possiblity of a major military move by them, and if so, would you have a timeframe? I am thinking in around two years or so the first signs of overt moves, building very slowly to a final overwhelming first strike with WMD, unless the global economy collapses faster than that, or if normal world supplies of oil are disrupted. Then, it might come sooner. What are your views on that? I see what we SHOULD be doiung with china, but I have less than zero confidence that any consortium or US politicians or business leaders will take any necessary steps like that, the rice bowl hijacking for example, it would be too devastating to the short term profits of their clients mostly. Clients being defined in order as the international arms and construction firms, their branches and suppliers, then down the list. Large global agricultural is important, but I doubt china would allow that to take over their market, treaties, after all, are words meant to be taken as lies written on pieces of paper. most nations think of treaties that way. WTO or not, china won't bankrupt themselves for food, they'll go the north korean route first, I am thinking. or seek subsidised food, like russia did-successfully- for years, to free up capital for military expansion.
Yes. But at the same time, read this article, about non-Uighur Muslims in China.
It is conceivable these are whom the CCP use.
It is very hard to know.
FreepForever - if you've not seen the post on a new novel concerning PRC geopolitical strategy go to Breath of Fire
I actually expect them to do this at some point in time, anyway, and am planning for it. Running simple math numbers show's pretty conclusively that they have zero choice-expand aggressively or implode soon. I think the US WILL face a first stike using both externally launched WMD, and also quite extensive internally set off devices, and other sorts of attacks. I would give the inevitability of that and the probabilty into the high 90 percentile range right now, and especially once the middle eastern and central asia oil fields start being divided up militarily, and when a more generalised and extensive israeli versus everyone else regionally war occurs. There's enough oil for EITHER the west, or asia, but not enough for both. And water is right behind that, even though it's almost not talked about in wargaming circles.
BTW: I have an adopted niece from your native land who will be an American for a whole year next month. Regards & blessings to you.
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