To Fight A Trade War With Terrorist Supporter

I am a Chinese living outside of China. The following is based on my personal experience and observation.

The China Government (with all her propaganda machines) has been nurturing the anti-American sentiment among her citizen after the Embassy bombing in Yogoslavia and the spy plane incident over South China Sea.

For decades, the Chinese Government has used nationalism to rally support from the mass public. As the Chinese saying goes: “Kill two birds with one stone”. The equation is simple -- The more they hate the America devil, the more they will support (and/or more tolerant to) their own government and the oppression. In this respect, they have achieved remarkable success in recent years.

If you can read Chinese and have monitored the Chinese open-discussion forums on the internet and the phone-in programs on the radio over the last 3 years, you won’t be surprised to find that public opinion is lopsided anti-American (up to an extreme ratio of 99 to 1). Any neutral opinion is automatically labeled as treasonous, not to mention pro-American. After the publication of the now notorious “Asymmetrical Warfare” by the PLA officials, the net was suddenly flooded with “1001 bizarre and grotesque ways to attack U.S.A.”.

I remember one Chinese geologist suggested smuggling and burying a nuclear device deep underground (right over the fault) in San Francisco to trigger an earth quake that kills millions of Americans. Among other equally grotesque schemes are spreading foot and mouth disease among U.S. livestock (poisoning milk, water, food, etc.); hacking the NYSE and Pentagon computers to deliver a heavy blow on U.S. both financially and militarily. The list goes on and on.

Their saber rattling was so intense and heated that for the first week after the Sept 11 attack, I have trouble clearing the suspicion in my mind that the attack was actually masterminded by the Chinese military (or at least a radical faction of the PLA). On Sept 12th and 13th, I was literally waiting for the Chinese to push the button and launch a nuclear attack on U.S. soil any moment. (Thanks to U.S. technology sold to China in the Clinton era, Beijing now have at least 24 long-range missiles capable of hitting most of U.S. cities, with warheads equivalent to 5 million tons TNT.) Of course, you can laugh at my paranoia now but during that horrible week, I was really frightened. Why?

If Jiang did push the button when the U.S. was at its weakest and most chaotic moment, I believe they might have a more than 50% chance to succeed. Until today, there are still many posters on Chinese internet forums that calls Jiang a wimp and criticize their government for missing an historical opportunity to finish the arrogant U.S. devil once and for all. Fortunately, President Bush’s resolve, poise and determination that prevented the country from plunging into further chaos had saved the day. Anyway, it was a close call.

Thanks to the Clinton administration, America’s military force is reduced to a state that it cannot handle two full scale conflicts on different fronts. Clinton’s best friend Jiang knows this too. His only concern is that a war with the U.S. at this stage is not to the best advantage of the Communist Party’s stability and China’s economy. In other words, Jiang also knows that their 24 nuclear missiles can only deliver a lethal blow to the U.S. but China lacks the financial power to fight it through victory. With the American commercial sectors and multi-national companies prostituting their national interests for business profits in China, this day will come very soon.

The Sept 11th attack on America is a God-send to Jiang and his government. I must credit the old wolf for his sly and cunning “two face, double talk” maneuver -- paying lip service to fight terrorism on one hand (thus avoiding direct conflict with U.S.) and trying his best to pin down the American military force in a prolonged Middle East conflict on the other. I am a great supporter of President Bush but his only wrong move is to ally China to fight terrorism. It is a big political joke. Can’t you see Jiang is patronizing Bush in APEC?

The last thing that Jiang wants to see is a quick and effective American victory in Afghanistan. China was and still is a staunch supporter of the Taliban (and other terrorist groups in South East Asia). They don’t want to have one more pro-American neighbor after the war, especially when the nuclear armed Pakistani Government has apparently shifted one foot to the U.S. camp.

China doesn’t want the Taliban to win either. Their existence and survival under America’s overwhelming force is already considered a great victory. The China’s best scenario is that the Afghan war becomes a hemorrhage on U.S. now weakened economy and military power for the next 10 years (or as long as it can be). If the U.S. is tied down in Afghanistan fighting a politically correct and limited war; and with the help of the peaceniks and pacifists within America, this would be Jiang’s dream come true. China will have a much bigger room and free hand to continue with her aggression in Asia, with or without help from North Korea. With entering the WTO imminent, China’s only obstacle in making a military move on Taiwan is the coming 2008 Olympic which will be hosted by Beijing.

With the imminent downturn of the US and the world economy, China is the only country in the world which can sustain a 7% to 8% GDP growth. I am not an economist, but how long does it take for China to rival the U.S. as a world leader and superpower?

Wake up and watch your back, America! Don’t be childish. Communist China is NOT your “Strategic Partner” and never will be!

To answer this question, the following (highlighted) are excerpts from fellow poster “juval” under other threads in reply to mine. (They do not necessarily represent my view and are posted here for your reference only. )

CIA predicts China's GDP will overtake America's by 2015, and Warren Buffett predicts US stock market will literally flatline through 2015. Plus, US still has $6 trillion in national debt.

America is the most influential country in the world today because, simply, its economy is biggest. It's that simple. America's economy is about 5 times larger than Germany's because 280 mil. people (US population) can obviously have greater economic output than just 80 mil. people (German population). From the time Columbus discovered America, America's population has mostly increased due to immigration (European, Asian, etc.). That's how America got such a large population and, thus, economy, tax base, and military. Without immigration today, America's population growth wouldn't even increase. Wealthy, middle-class Americans average only 2 or fewer children per family. China’s population today is 4.6 times that of America’s.

China's GDP now is about $5 trillion, while America's is $10 trillion. Given the faster growth rate of China's economy, China's GDP is expected to overtake America's around 2015, when China's GDP is about $15 trillion versus America's $14 trillion. This is just a matter of time (if no one do anything to reverse the existing trend).

As for America's economy, there's an important article in Fortune magazine by Buffett in which he predicted that the Dow would stay flat through 2015 as a result of the likelihood of long-term interest rates being likely to rise from now through 2015. This is because rates are currently historically low, which means they're bound to return upward to historical norms in the future. Interest rates directly affect stock valuation: the higher the rate, the lower the fair value of any stock. In fact, Buffett has been right. Stocks have basically flatlined since the end of 1998: the Dow closed at 9,181 at the end of 1998 and today the Dow is practically unchanged from that. Buffett says the 1998-2015 period with respect to the stock market will be a virtual repeat of the 1964-1981 (Vietnam War era). During 1964-81, guess how much the Dow rose over that entire period? Just 1 point. Dow started 1964 at 874 and ended 1981 at 875. Yes, it can happen again, because the interest rate situation today is the same as then (historically low, so bound to rise higher, causing stock valuations to stay flat for the entire 17-year period).

Exports make a much smaller percentage of China's total GDP compared to most other Asian nations. Exports make up 22% of China's GDP vs. 40-70% for Taiwan, S. Korea, Singapore, Thailand, etc. The world economic downturn is hurting these countries much more than China. Their GDP's are negative while China's is still growing at 7%, thanks to the power of China's domestic economy (78% of China's GDP) which is the world's biggest market now for everything from air conditioners and elevators to cell phone and beer. See table at http://www.asiaweek.com/asiaweek/magazine/dateline/0,8782,172286,00.html

When asked what is the impact of the Sept 11 attack on China’s economy, a grim faced Chinese Financial Ministry official answered: “Yes, export is bad. We have to tune down our projected GDP growth by 0.2 to 0.3%.” I have an inborn distrust of Chinese officials. I double the figure and it is still as insignificant as half a percentage point.

I predict this post would trigger a “Don’t Buy Anything Made In China” campaign. But, no use. Firstly, China’s nationalism fanatics have been screaming for years: “Don’t buy Toyota and Sony!”. Yet, they are still the hottest items in the China market (Taking into consideration that Japan is their second public enemy in China. America is the first.). Secondly, American consumer would end up paying more for the same product if they purchase elsewhere. This would only hurt the U.S. economy and retail business more than the Chinese.

As you all know, there is a great deficit in the current U.S.-China trade. The key is to narrow the deficit, if not to reverse the ever widening trend. You have to fight the trade war on a more leveled battle ground. Fight them in their softest spot and weakest sector. With entering the WTO imminent, China cannot subsidize their agricultural sector anymore. America’s agri business is much more cost effective than China’s.

A study shows that the cost of China’s crop being 20 to 70% higher than that of America’s (depending on variety). Regarding efficiency, China takes 75% of its population to feed 1.3 billion, where there is only 1% agricultural population in America and they can generate enough surplus for exports. Combined with cutting-edge genetic and bio-chem engineering, America’s agri products can overwhelm the Chinese domestic market. The profit is three fold.

1) Agro exports to China is a profit making business and can generate a lot of jobs. Thus, benefiting America’s economy. The improved economy of scale also means that American consumer can enjoy cheaper food due to increased production.

2) China’s rural population constitutes 75% of her total population. For half a century, these farmers (at the lowest echelon of China’s social structure) are already screwed and cheated by their Government and gained nothing from the recent economic growth. Just imagine when they are driven out of business by much cheaper and better quality U.S. exports, what will happen then?

I expect to see social unrest and uprising mushrooming everywhere inside China. The Central Government will have no option but to divert their financial resources from the big cities just to keep them fed and pacified. Remember, these rural people are mostly illiterate and they care sh_t about communist or socialist ideology. A social uprising in this scale (1 billion) will both slow down China’s economy development AND probably keep the PLA (China’s People’s Liberation Army) extremely busy to control the mobs.

3) Regardless of the massive size of China’s agribusiness, until today China is still a net importer of rice -- their staple food. Furthermore, desertfication and city development is already eroding their arable land -- meaning that China will be increasingly dependent on food imports. Just imagine the leverage gained when the U.S. becomes the biggest food supplier of China.

To implement this strategy and to achieve the primary objective of hi-jacking China’s rice bowl, you need to have a dedicated department running this operation. According to my acquaintances within the U.S. embassy in this part of the world, the U.S. Dept of Commerce is just a safe haven rewarding retired government officials. They are not aggressive enough. And, the U.S. Dept of Agriculture is just too preoccupied with domestic affairs. Traditionally, they are not export and marketing oriented enough.

You need to have strategists with long-term vision and determination like Donald Rumsfeld running this department and take this commercial operation to a military-like level. America has to attack the market on all fronts, be it rice, soy, maize, wheat, vegetables, fruits, livestock, poultry, cotton, and etc. Strike them with overwhelming force. Everything from logistics, marketing, distribution to warehousing have to be streamlined to achieve maximum cost efficiency. Satellite and infrared imaging technology can be employed to monitor overall crop plantations and conditions in China, thus giving an accurate picture on production, supply and pricing strategy. In peace time, food supply is a major asset. In war time, food is as important as ammunition.

The Chinese Communist regime is deeply psychotic.

Before this is all over the regime in Beijing needs to be ended one way or another.

The ironic thing is, all the things the ChiComs want for China -- to be a "great nation" with power prestige and influence throughout the world can actually happen quite naturally if the ChiComs were not the government and China had the free system the ChiComs put as top priority to avoid.

It is always easier for countries to copy and try to catch up than it is to lead. The closer China's economy comes to matching America's the more likely that the structural impediments within their system will cause major disruptions.

I'm so glad we consider China as a most favored trade nation.

Our nation, politicians, and business leaders are so damn greedy, they do not care if this kind of crap goes on or not! That, in my humble opinion, says the same for our nation! We care more about the almighty dollar than we care about our country, otherwise we would make sure that our leaders were held accountable for these actions, or lack thereof.

Thanks for the links. My guess is that these are not regular People's Liberation Armies. There are a large population of XinJiang and Tibetian Muslims near the border. If the China government wants to help the Taliban, they can simply open the border and let them enter Afghanistan (perhaps with weapons supplied). China's Central Government has always wanted to get rid of them anyway.

There's a Chinese saying: "Such people will make such Government." I believe the reverse is true also. China's system is so corrupt that the people's mentality and values are deeply corroded. Even with the fall of the ChiCom (hope to see this in my remaining life), I have no confidence that China can become a great nation.

FreepForever

Thank you for an exellent well reasoned essay. The people's Republic of China is a patient and implacable enemy. That Jiang is reveling in the destruction of September 11, 2001 should tell us all we really need to know about how friendly this nation is to the USA. China has major port facilities through Hutchinson Whapoa in the Carribean, at the Panama Canal and on the West Coast of the USA. China has all the nuclear technology they need to supply Al qaeda with a couple of nukes that would devastate the USA without any trail back to China.

China is an expansionist power and when they see the USA preoccupied in the middle East there will be little to hold them back.

Those who think the current phase of this war will be it are whistling past the graveyard.

Things can get real nasty really quick.

Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown

You might be interested in this work of fiction:

Dragon's Fury - Breath of Fire: www.dragonsfury-breathoffire.com

I believe the PRC is more than happy to foster discontent and to push the trade issues ... I also believe it will ultimately lead to a shooting war.

Regards.

Thanks for your reply.

The most horrible after-effect of the Sept 11 attack is that Bin Laden has proved that a direct attack on U.S. soil is NOT THAT UNTHINKABLE. A year ago, the PLA may think that their so called "Asymmetrical War" is just a day dream. But now, would they give their craziest plan another serious look?

But, on the lighter side, China's top priority is to build its economic power to rival the U.S. in the shortest timespan. Their next move will be aggression and bully around Asia. If the U.S. dares to intervene, China will stand firm and threaten a direct military confrontation with America. However, I don't see this will happen before 2008, when the Olympic is held in Beijing (unless something very unusual crops up). Let me know what you think.

Guessing timing was never my strongest suit but I am wondering about Jiang being scheduled to retire sometime about 2004. If China wins its confrontation with the USA who will stop them from having the Olympics?

Stay well - stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown

Freep:

I hope you're not a citizen of the PRC anymore. Their agents monitor FR and even post occasionally (as we know from the spy-plane incident last year).

If you ever have to go back to China, DON'T.

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