Replies

You sure about that?

I'm positive.

From this article in JAMA, which, BTW, took all of 30 seconds to find using Google:

Historically, the rapidity of smallpox transmission throughout the population was generally slower than for such diseases as measles or chickenpox. Patients spread smallpox primarily to household members and friends; large outbreaks in schools, for example, were uncommon. This finding was accounted for in part by the fact that transmission of smallpox virus did not occur until onset of rash. By then, many patients had been confined to bed because of the high fever and malaise of the prodromal illness. Secondary cases were thus usually restricted to those who came into contact with patients, usually in the household or hospital.

There is a lot of scare mongering going on around here lately. Anything you read (including this) should be taken with a grain of salt. Although information like this is very easy to confirm.

By the way, I wonder what you and the author of the SLATE article would consider an "acceptable" casualty rate? What if only 10% of Americans died? How about only 5%- would that be OK? At what projected case fatality rate should everyone just relax? (A 1% rate would mean the deaths of almost three MILLION Americans...)

No- if this is ever used, it's pretty much certain that some countries are going to disappear rather suddenly. I don't think that rationality and SLATE articles will have much of a chance.

Historically, the rapidity of smallpox transmission throughout the population was generally slower than for such diseases as measles or chickenpox. Patients spread smallpox primarily to household members and friends; large outbreaks in schools, for example, were uncommon. This finding was accounted for in part by the fact that transmission of smallpox virus did not occur until onset of rash. By then, many patients had been confined to bed because of the high fever and malaise of the prodromal illness. Secondary cases were thus usually restricted to those who came into contact with patients, usually in the household or hospital.

Confined to bed where? At home.
By who? By Physicians who routinely made house calls.
House call? What's that??????

If there is a smallpox attack, every single victime is going to be taken to a clinic or emergency room. And large numbers of people who are already sick or infirm -- and thus more vulnerable -- will inevitably be infected. Many more than would have been typical in those earlier days.

Aren't you glad our new way of doing medicine is so much more "efficient?"