Will Osama Appear In Pakistan?

I have come up with what I think is going to happen next in the ongoing drama. Forgive this vanity post, but I think the idea demands discussion in advance of the possible event.

He will stay in Pakistan because it has nukes and medium range rockets, is unstable and ready to blow up like Iran in 79, and of course is closest to Afghanistan for covert travel ease. He wants to be seen as the Mahdi, (Moslem messiah, the next Prophet of Allah) and to do that he needs the adoring masses, and proof that he has humiliated and beaten the Great Satan (and the lackey sell-out government of Musharraf). His "miraculous" escape from under the Amriki bombers and his secret journey to Pakistan will "prove" that the Hand of Allah is protecting and guiding him.

To ensure his safety he will at all times be surrounded by millions of fanatics in densely packed slums where we can not bomb him or send in troops. The micro-model for this will be "Blackhawk Down", the Battle of Mogadishu where (in the Moslem view) they won a great victory and drove the USA out of Somalia. Al Q'aida was instrumental in that battle, particularly by introducing modified anti-helicopter time-fused air-bursting RPGs, and the tactics which led to the shootdowns of several US helicopters, which caused the simple half hour Delta/Ranger "snatch" raid to spin out of control into a furious day and night long battle.

Every day that OBL is loose, appearing like a Super Pope on balconies in front of 100s of thousands of adoring jihadists, his power and influence worldwide will soar like a moon rocket. He will have the 24/7 attention of the entire world media for his every pronouncement, and then he can "ascend" into heaven proving he is truly the Mahdi. Even if we drop a smart bomb on his balcony, he "ascends to heaven" and wins.

If we dare to risk a helicopter/ground attack into the teeming slums to capture or kill him, he will get his "super battle of Mogadishu", which will suit his purpose by killing countless thousands of Moslem noncombatants, driving the entire Moslem world instantly into a world war on America.

And of course any smart bomb we dared to use to kill OBL will kill hundreds of adoring moslem children, proving what bloodthirsty butchers the infidels are.

Even if snipers or or precision fired Hellfire rockets "take him out" on his balcony, we may only kill an OBL double, allowing "the Mahdi" to be "resurrected from the dead" for new appearances, driving his power and influence still higher into the stratosphere.

This scenario has been his ultimate goal all along I believe. I wonder if anyone at the NSC, CIA , NSA or DOS has prepared a counter move to this very possible, even likely, scenario?

The Jihadists have learned very well the utility of their "no footprints" back to a certain sponsor nation strategy. After Beirut, Khobar, the embassies, the Cole, it's always been the same: we promise retaliation, but only after we find out exactly whodunnit.

But we never find out exactly whodunnit.

This negates the entire MAD principle. Firing from the shadows works against the USA.

You pose a great question: who exactly should we nuke if a small nuke goes off in Long Beach in a Liberian freighter with a Philippino crew and Norwegian captain and containers from 20 nations?

Who exactly will we nuke if smallpox breaks out in 20 US cities at once?

I think that the strategic thinkers are moving (in the background) towards a Blame Bagdad strategy. (You can see how we are narrowing the anthrax source down to them.)

We need to nuke somebody if one of the two above attacks occurs, and Bagdad's annhialation would serve as our last warning to the rest of Islam.

The "outrage' you describe need not necessarily be an "American" outrage. it could as easily be an Israeli response to the terrorism they face.

I think this is one of the most key points made on this thread. In analyzing this war and the 'endgame' it is vital that we don't only view it from our perspective. Travis has done a stellar job of broaching the topic. Now, what happens next?

I believe that Israel is integral to OBL's plan. Saddam fits in there as well. IMHO the ultimate op-plan for OBL is an overthrow of the House of Saud and the creation of a Pan-Islamic World Power. With him and a select group of Mullah's running a true Jihad. The total control of the world's oil would be essential to that end. Why else would Allah have blessed the Arabs with all of this oil? SO, Saudi princes can get laid in every city in the world?

This will be as much a class as a religious struggle. The believers at the bottom making up the Jihad with Islamic Academics = Mullah's - making up the new ruling class!

Regards,

The Chicoms aren't behind Osama pig Laden, but they're cheering for him to succeed in crumbling American international influence. The Chicoms are much more ruthless than we and the Isalmicist realize this. You will notice from history what happens when the totalitarian-styled Islamicists come up against the ruthless totalitarian regimes of a major power ... the Islamicists turn their attention to those of us that will give even minimal regard to civilian casualties.

Checkers, Chess?... Oh, definitely Chess! That we in America have failed to deport and will not profile groups for scrutiny will be the main aspect of our culture used against US in the coming terrorist offensives. The game plan of Osama is designed for staging, not necessarily in the following order but to include the following aspects: first, terrorism to confound the United States, exposing our many weaknesses and exploiting our openness, slowly reducing our economy until we are on a survival mode internally, drastically reducing our worldwide economic influence as we wither within; a growing terrorist connection with Hamas and Hezbollah, to create a link for worldwide exploitation of terrorist soldiers of every race possible, for infiltration purposes, obviously; a coup will occur in Saudi Arabia, and the militant Wahhabis will take over, cr4eating another talibanesque regime in the once peaceful Arabian peninsula od al Saud; major terrorist actions will occur in places like the Phillipines, Indonesia, and European cities; Osama or his drone/clone will take the 'reigns' of Saudi Arabia and manipulate the world economy via oil prices.

Yeah, it's a frightening scenario, but it's been prophecied for a very long time, if one has eyes to see. the essential weakness of our Western culture is our concern for life, though we are schizophrenic with that, trying to export a culture of death in abortion policy back by American dollars ... blood money, I'd say. I believe we are beyond being able to be ruthless with nations that harbor and support terrorism and that's why the campaign began in earnest after Bush took office ... Osama&co. were waiting to see if goreghoul won, to adjust their terrorist activities accordingly ... what would Gore have done, witht he full support of the left and liberal sycophancy if a nuke or smallpox attacked had been first, instead of the escalation now enjoined?... Nuclear response or nothing substantial, not the gradual ratcheting up of this current approach ... and that was the first miscalculation of Osama pig Laden, for he expected near indescriminate response and didn't get it, complicating the equations of his planning.

Is there a way to win, now? Sadly, I think the only way to win is to ginore Muslim voices and become much more rtuhless with any nation where the terrorists go or are hidden by the regime, and economically ruthless with countries like Saudi Arabia paralleled by immediate drilling and explorations that make US oil self-sufficient; can you imagine the pressure we will get from our 'NATO' allies if and when Osama or his drone/clone takes control of Saudi oil and begins to cut the tap to European nations? Yes, they will squeal, and it is then that we should step back and make the lazy Euros send their armies to the battles and conquests we have been manning for their uncooperative asses! We should align our nation more with Russia ... the Muslim threat is more real there, at the belly of Russia than it is even here with the terrosits cells operating amongst US. we should profile ALL non-citizens and deport ALL visa-holding visitors, then scrutinize them very carefully as we allow most back into this nation, while hunting down with extreme prejudice the visa holders that don't show up for deportation. We are at war, not at peace. If we don't soon conduct our homefront activities to give US a smarter margin of control over who comes and goes, or goes then comes back, we will be defeated. Oh, we won't cease to exist, but our economic woes here in this nation, coupled with our social violence that will arise as food and energy become more scarce will take US out of the equations Osama is calculating, then he will have a lot less to calculate and manipulate. If the Euro-lazies do not soon get very actively involved, it will be too late for them to ratchet up their military responses when we are taken out of the equations.

By the way, I am a chessplayer and played competitively for my university for three years in college. This is definetly a Chess game of global proportions and we are conducting it as if it is theater limitable. we are about to get a rude awakening from the Phillipines or Europe, coupled with a major event in this nation I fear.

Travis, Osama is likely already in Pakistan, trying to arrange a trip to Mugabeland or other likely out-of-the-way location from which to continue his campaign. He anticipated our moving against Afghanistan and likely left before the last video from him was released, expecting that we would think he taped it in Afghanistan recently when it was prepared weeeks ago. Osama pig Laden doesn't need Pakistani nukes with India chomping at the bit to invade; he has the network arranged to do his demonic bidding already in place else he wouldn't have released the 9/11 events even though they were not but half as successful as he anticipated (eight planes, not four, over a longer period of time; he didn't anticipate Maneta grounding all flights).

Great post, it is certainly high level chess OBL is playing to our tiddly winks.

We had better prepare for my old scenario involving a total cutoff of trade and travel between the West and Islamic nations. Westerners trapped in islamic nations are going to be butchered at some point, and the oil is also going to be cut off.

If OBL makes his triumphal balcony appearance and is believed to be the Mahdi, then his every order will be mandatorily carried out, including by many of our "moderates" in the West, so we had better be prepared to clean up that danger. PC values will only lead to more deaths on the homefront at that time.

While they may be able to bring disease and havoc and economic ruin to the West, what will happen in the Islamic nations after the Great Split will be far worse. In ten years, the islamic capitols and major cities may resemble Kabul or Mogadishu, with warlords and mullahs battling over the rubble. There is one thing moslem arabs do better than killing Westerners, and that is kill each other.

Let them eat their oil.

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