Will Osama Appear In Pakistan?

Travis McGee | October 25, 2001 | Travis McGee

[colorado tanker]

Pakistan is not as unstable as the media hysteria suggests. All the footage of riots is coming from remote border towns that have always been pretty wild. The rioters, however, are Pustuns and Baluchis, who are tiny minority groups in Pakistan. I've seen no evidence of unrest in Punjab, which is the heartland and provides the ruling class. Mussharaf is the hand picked representative of the army and seems well in control.

If Osama bin leavin' my guess is he'll run to Somalia where there is no effective central government to challenge him.

[101viking]

"If you are suggesting that the Indians might immediately preemptively nuke targets in Pakistan, that would also serve OBLs purpose by provoking World War Jihad."

My suggestion is a far larger scenario, which may include a preemptive strike by the Indians against the Pakistani nukes. I would speculate an all out war between Pakistan and India, including nukes, and conventional weapons as well. I may have been a little quick to suggest full support from the U.S., Russia, and China, however under your scenario the cat would be out of the bag so to speak, and I could conceive that it would lead to the "world war jihad" as you described.

[Jim Noble]

I think he'll go to Qetta or Lahore, but I think you are absolutely right.

Our policy must be that the zone between Iran, India, and Russia is up for grabs, and that although we don't want to administer it, we require that anti-American words and acts be ruthlessly suppressed. The demarcation line between India and Persia may well be east of the Khyber Pass, the demarcation between the Russian sphere of influence and the other two should be south of Kabul.

Bye, bye, Pakis.

[harpseal]

Mohammed did know about afganistan although it was not called it at the time and the quote reffered to is something like when you see the black flags coming from the hills of ______ [what is now at least southern Afganistan] join them. It is the true Imman Mahdi al ______. Now that is one part of the whole myth structure that Ossama is using.

If he is as good at theater as I think he is I really dotthink he will fake his own public death and resurrection. What more could a waivering Muslim ask for to convince him to join the Jihad?

I note that rumsfeld's statement that we may never actually find OBL may be a recognition of this whole premise.

Stay well - stay safe - stay armed _ Yorktown

[Travis McGee]

Thanks for post #27, it echos my thoughts exactly.

We must not underestimate the man who destroyed the WTC with boxcutter knives.

Certainly he has a long term strategy, and does not plan to lose.

His "appearance, death and resurrection" would in the minds of hundreds of millions of Moslems "prove" that he is the Mahdi, and make following his orders mandatory even for the so-called "moderate" Moslems living down your street.

I even think that his "feeble" anthrax attack may have been carefully crafted and thought out. It "blurs" the line of the threshhold of first use of Bio weapons. Bio weapons have now been used, with no nuclear retaliation, which has been our announced policy for 50 years. The next Bio attack will just be a matter of higher numbers, the threshhold has been crossed.

I think that they may have smallpox, antibiotic resistant plague or another Bio weapon ready to go, but first we must cause some outrage which can then be "responded to" with that new germ or virus.

It's going to be a hell of a year and decade.

[Travis McGee]

Exactly!

Whoever thinks that he has not planned all of this out in advance is a fool. Who has seen him in Afghanistan since 9-11?

He is playing chess, we are still playing checkers.

[Andrew Byler]

and the Chinese.

Oh I really don't think so. The Chinese appear to be behind OBL. They certainly aren't onboard with us.

[Travis McGee]

How do you know where (exactly, one error is not acceptable) ALL of the Paki nukes are?

Do you think India knows for sure? American intelligence?

Don't forget Saddam's SCUDs, being fired on the last day of the Gulf War, hidden even with all of our satellites, recon planes and SAS recon troops searching for them for months.

[Andrew Byler]

OBL is currently, if not dead, is in the safest place he could possibly be, in caves in the mountains. Any place esle we would get him sooner, than where he is now.

Shoddy strategic thinking.

OBL is clearly itching for a huge fight. He is not hiding biding his time till we kill him. Eventually, he is going to make a strategic move to widen the war among Islamists, if the US doesn't make some blunder that does this for him first.

[harpseal]

Clearly are thoughts are along similar lines regarding what the Anthrax attack is all about. We have not responded to it with nuclear retaliation and as such our entire MAD philosophy is now in question. Will a small tactical nuclear weapon in an American city generate such a rsponse? No one really knows anymore? Would a smallpox epidemic that killed say 20 million Americans generate a nuclear response? No one knows anymore. One thing we do know is that there would likely be some who would demand clear footprints leading to some nation before we launched.

The "outrage' you describe need not necessarily be an "American" outrage. it could as easily be an Israeli response to the terrorism they face.

Stay well - Stay safe - stay armed - Yorktown

[mercy]

More like tiddely winks.

[TADSLOS]

never say never...

[Andrew Byler]

There is very little chance that India knows with enough certainty where all the Pakistani nukes are to risk a preemptive strike which might be answered by a well hidden Paki nuclear tipped rocket.

You seem to forget that India could lose 200 million in a subcontinent Nuclear exchange and still have over 800 million people. If Pakistan loses 200 million, she is annihilated from this earth.

India wins every time.

[HAL9000]

I don't think bin Laden has proclaimed himself to be the Mahdi, but rather a new caliph. He sees himself more as a temporal leader than a spiritual one.

[Sabertooth]

I think OBL is heading for Karachi or Islamabad.

He will stay in Pakistan because it has nukes and medium range rockets, is unstable and ready to blow up like Iran in 79, and of course is closest to Afghanistan for covert travel ease. He wants to be seen as the Mahdi, (Moslem messiah, the next Prophet of Allah) and to do that he needs the adoring masses, and proof that he has humiliated and beaten the Great Satan (and the lackey sell-out government of Musharraf). His "miraculous" escape from under the Amriki bombers and his secret journey to Pakistan will "prove" that the Hand of Allah is protecting and guiding him...

Every day that OBL is loose, appearing like a Super Pope on balconies in front of 100s of thousands of adoring jihadists, his power and influence worldwide will soar like a moon rocket. He will have the 24/7 attention of the entire world media for his every pronouncement, and then he can "ascend" into heaven proving he is truly the Mahdi. Even if we drop a smart bomb on his balcony, he "ascends to heaven" and wins.

Travis, I think you're onto something…

Consider the effect on the pan-Islamic jihad if bin Laden is able to unleash a nuclear or bio attack on America while he is standing before a triumphant multitude in your balcony scenario.

I've been noticing strange peripheral developments regardind Pakistan for the past few weeks. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are bin Laden's big prizes. Nukes and Oil.

Consider:

Suspected terrorist arrested with bio-suit in Frankfurt
This man is identified in the article as being a Turk.
However, I just heard it reported by Michael Medved
that he is actually of Pakistani origin.

Kenyan Embassy bombers
had false Pakistani Papers

Pakistani linked to anthrax mailbox

Pakistani teen predicts
World Trade Center collapse in Brooklyn.

Pakistani nuclear scientist arrested

Pakistani Arrested in Sept. 11 Probe Found Dead in Cell

Pakistani guerrillas return with eight killed by U.S.

Taliban build base inside Pakistan

US Company in Pakistan hit by Anthrax

US copters in Pakistan fired on

Pakistanis Arrested In Mali

Full "Pakistan" search list…

I don't believe that the current Pakistani government is behind this. But clearly there is a well developed organization within Pakistan (where we know there is a strong al-Qaeda presence) that is very involved with the ongoing terrorist attacks on America.

All of this takes place after Pakistan's detonation of atomic bombs in 1997. You can bet that both bin Laden and Hussein want to get their hands on Pakistan's nuclear arsenal (as many as 40 weapons), the "Islamic Bombs." Methinks that these Pakistan links were will known to President Bush and Co. when we made it our first priority to bring Pakistan into the coalition after the attack of 9/11. The military government there is very shaky.

Again:

Consider the effect on the pan-Islamic jihad if bin Laden is able to unleash a nuclear or bio attack on America while he is standing before a triumphant multitude in your balcony scenario.

[Travis McGee]

I share your wish that OBL is already dead.

But keep in mind he has been planning this entire scenario (not just up until 9-11) for many years, so it is likely that he also planned his escape route before 9-11. He may already be in Pakistan, awaiting the best moment for his "miraculous appearance".

The more that we hope he is dead, and the more the moslem world believes he may be dead, the greater will be the effect of his "miraclous deliverence from the Amrikis", if it happens.

[101viking]

"Oh I really don't think so. The Chinese appear to be behind OBL. They certainly aren't onboard with us."

The Chinese are on board with no one except themselves. They must be quietly snickering behind the scenes at what we have gotten ourselves into as a result of what may go down in history as 8 years of some of the most inept foreign policy in our Nation's history. I would have to believe that the forcasted "years of war against terrorism" has the Chinese licking their chops both economicaly and politicaly. The more unstable the middle east becomes, the more customers there will be for Chinese made weapons and systems. I would bet that the Iranians, and others are busy arming themselves for the future because of the situation at hand and where it may lead.

[colorado tanker]

I disagree. The Paks, and in particular the Punjabis, view themselves as the heirs of the ancient Indian civilization, descendants of the Moguls who ruled India for centuries before the British took over. They regard the Afghan tribes as barbarians. They play the great game because they need a friendly government to their rear. That's why they're working right now to broker the government that will replace the Taliban. If Binny were foolish enough to cross to Pakistan to try to stir up a rebellion, the ISI would quietly dispose of him and the world would never hear about him again.

I agree Binny has more moves planned, but c'mon, this guy isn't Superman. He cleverly took advantage of what was an increadibly complacent and unprepared America.

[denydenydeny]

India does not appear to be frightened in the least by Pakistan's nukes. Their entire policy toward Pakistan could be summed up in four words: "Give us a reason."

[xzins]

Do you mean "miraculously" or just drive a car?