Posted on 10/25/2001 8:30:14 AM PDT by Travis McGee
I have come up with what I think is going to happen next in the ongoing drama. Forgive this vanity post, but I think the idea demands discussion in advance of the possible event.
I think OBL is heading for Karachi or Islamabad.
He will stay in Pakistan because it has nukes and medium range rockets, is unstable and ready to blow up like Iran in 79, and of course is closest to Afghanistan for covert travel ease. He wants to be seen as the Mahdi, (Moslem messiah, the next Prophet of Allah) and to do that he needs the adoring masses, and proof that he has humiliated and beaten the Great Satan (and the lackey sell-out government of Musharraf). His "miraculous" escape from under the Amriki bombers and his secret journey to Pakistan will "prove" that the Hand of Allah is protecting and guiding him.
To ensure his safety he will at all times be surrounded by millions of fanatics in densely packed slums where we can not bomb him or send in troops. The micro-model for this will be "Blackhawk Down", the Battle of Mogadishu where (in the Moslem view) they won a great victory and drove the USA out of Somalia. Al Q'aida was instrumental in that battle, particularly by introducing modified anti-helicopter time-fused air-bursting RPGs, and the tactics which led to the shootdowns of several US helicopters, which caused the simple half hour Delta/Ranger "snatch" raid to spin out of control into a furious day and night long battle.
Every day that OBL is loose, appearing like a Super Pope on balconies in front of 100s of thousands of adoring jihadists, his power and influence worldwide will soar like a moon rocket. He will have the 24/7 attention of the entire world media for his every pronouncement, and then he can "ascend" into heaven proving he is truly the Mahdi. Even if we drop a smart bomb on his balcony, he "ascends to heaven" and wins.
If we dare to risk a helicopter/ground attack into the teeming slums to capture or kill him, he will get his "super battle of Mogadishu", which will suit his purpose by killing countless thousands of Moslem noncombatants, driving the entire Moslem world instantly into a world war on America.
And of course any smart bomb we dared to use to kill OBL will kill hundreds of adoring moslem children, proving what bloodthirsty butchers the infidels are.
Even if snipers or or precision fired Hellfire rockets "take him out" on his balcony, we may only kill an OBL double, allowing "the Mahdi" to be "resurrected from the dead" for new appearances, driving his power and influence still higher into the stratosphere.
This scenario has been his ultimate goal all along I believe. I wonder if anyone at the NSC, CIA , NSA or DOS has prepared a counter move to this very possible, even likely, scenario?
I tell all of you.....this is Machiavelli time if ever there has been for our culture and country.
Regards
Yes, then we won't have to worry about fly over permission and can just level that place on our way to finish the Taliban.
Once OBL is known to be in Pakistan, then we merely reiterate our views that any country that hosts terrorists will be held accountable. Pakistan would be no different from any other country he, OBL, may try to get into. Iran would not permit him into their country, percisely for that reason.
Once a population take up arms, like in Mogadishu, then they are fair game.
OBL is currently, if not dead, is in the safest place he could possibly be, in caves in the mountains. Any place esle we would get him sooner, than where he is now.
This Pakistan scenario is flawed.
Musharraf will not last long (days? hours?) in power if "The Mahdi" orders his millions to march on the presidential palace and kill the traitors to Allah.
Something like this... "when you see such and such a man in the hills of Afghanistan, you will know that he is the Imam Mahdi."
Does anyone have the full text of this Islamic prophecy?
"The US defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, believes that the American-led anti-terrorist coalition may not succeed in killing or capturing Osama bin Laden, it was reported today."It's a big world, there are lots of countries. He's got a lot of money, he's got a lot of people who support him and I just don't know whether we'll be successful," he told the USA Today newspaper.
Mr Rumsfeld added that even if Bin Laden "were gone tomorrow" the reach of the al-Qaida terrorist network meant that the same problem would still exist.
"It is not a national problem. It is not Afghanistan. It is not the Afghan people. It is a network scattered across the globe. And to really deal with it you have to clearly deal with the problem in Afghanistan, but you also have to deal with 50 cells around the world."
But he said that neutralising al-Qaida was not "the goal and the endpoint of this thing", echoing earlier suggestions that Washington's war on terror will not end in Afghanistan. Mr Rumsfeld has repeatedly said that rooting out terrorism is a long term project comparable to the cold war.
OBL may well make an appearance in front of the masses be "killed" in front of the masses and reappear alive and well. This would of course give him his unified Islam dedicated to Jihad against America. The ideal timing for this is when there are some substantial US ground troops on the ground in Southern Afganistan. Thus a large number of troops would be curoff from the sea. This would in many ways be similar to the Chosin Resivoir battles in the attempt to extract these forces.
The ensuing disaster would still see far too many in the US willing to sacrifice troops in order to avoid going nuclear. If the following strategy were combined with say a smallpox stike at the USA and/or a nuclear stike at the USA the enemy will have pulled off a major victory.
The mpact of such a victory would embolden many in the Islamic world to take more actions against the USA. Instead of a few thousand Islamic Jihadists we would be faced with possibly up to several hundred thousand such Jihadists here in the USA. along side this we are talking about several additional Muslim nations rapidly converting to OBL's cause. abdullah may wind up succeeding fahd in Saudi Arabia and the Iranian clerics may well adhere to OBL. Presume a deal already in place between saddm and Ossama.
the US will then be faced with either using out strategic weapons or facing defeat. I believe that Al Qaeda has estimated that we will not use the nuclear weapons ever. They think we lack the B*lls to do so. They crossed the bio threshold and we have done nothing. The gravest mistake we can make is to think Al Qaeda does not have a master strategy that they think will work.
Stay well - stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown
PS: Couldn't stay away could you? But this particular idea is something everyone should think about thanks for taking the time.
We will not even drop a "smart bomb", OBL will be surrounded by children.
If we drop a smart bomb and get lucky and kill "the real Osama", (not one of his doubles), he will still win by provoking his desired World War Jihad.
There is very little chance that India knows with enough certainty where all the Pakistani nukes are to risk a preemptive strike which might be answered by a well hidden Paki nuclear tipped rocket.
Remember, on the last day of the Gulf War Iraq was still firing SCUDs. With every US satellite, recon plane, SAS troop etc looking for them, they continued to evade detection and fire.
This is probably correct. alternatively he could at present be in The sudan, Somalia, Yemen, Iran , Iraq, or many other nations.
Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown
Yes, if they don't tow the line, Bush will make them pay. They DON'T want to be caught harboring OBL! Premptive strikes can take out their nukes, then there'll be hell to pay. Without their nukes, India would be on them like stink on $hit.
I hope the Paks realize this and act accordingly should OBL appear there.
This guy leveraged boxcutter knives into 5,000 dead under the rubble of the World Trade Center, he is a high concept thinker, and not likely to live out his life in caves.
Remember, a glorious death serving Allah is more rewarding to him than a longer life.
He's after maximum publicity for his cause of provoking World War Jihad, not a secure retirement package.
He won't get maximum publicity hidden in a cave.
They will fail, and be sent to hell, and islam will disappear, or very nearly disappear.
But they may take millions of civilized human beings down with them.
Perhaps one of his quotes is now being interpreted in this way.
If millions of fanatical Jihadists believe it, that's all that matters.
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