Posted on 10/25/2001 8:30:14 AM PDT by Travis McGee
I have come up with what I think is going to happen next in the ongoing drama. Forgive this vanity post, but I think the idea demands discussion in advance of the possible event.
I think OBL is heading for Karachi or Islamabad.
He will stay in Pakistan because it has nukes and medium range rockets, is unstable and ready to blow up like Iran in 79, and of course is closest to Afghanistan for covert travel ease. He wants to be seen as the Mahdi, (Moslem messiah, the next Prophet of Allah) and to do that he needs the adoring masses, and proof that he has humiliated and beaten the Great Satan (and the lackey sell-out government of Musharraf). His "miraculous" escape from under the Amriki bombers and his secret journey to Pakistan will "prove" that the Hand of Allah is protecting and guiding him.
To ensure his safety he will at all times be surrounded by millions of fanatics in densely packed slums where we can not bomb him or send in troops. The micro-model for this will be "Blackhawk Down", the Battle of Mogadishu where (in the Moslem view) they won a great victory and drove the USA out of Somalia. Al Q'aida was instrumental in that battle, particularly by introducing modified anti-helicopter time-fused air-bursting RPGs, and the tactics which led to the shootdowns of several US helicopters, which caused the simple half hour Delta/Ranger "snatch" raid to spin out of control into a furious day and night long battle.
Every day that OBL is loose, appearing like a Super Pope on balconies in front of 100s of thousands of adoring jihadists, his power and influence worldwide will soar like a moon rocket. He will have the 24/7 attention of the entire world media for his every pronouncement, and then he can "ascend" into heaven proving he is truly the Mahdi. Even if we drop a smart bomb on his balcony, he "ascends to heaven" and wins.
If we dare to risk a helicopter/ground attack into the teeming slums to capture or kill him, he will get his "super battle of Mogadishu", which will suit his purpose by killing countless thousands of Moslem noncombatants, driving the entire Moslem world instantly into a world war on America.
And of course any smart bomb we dared to use to kill OBL will kill hundreds of adoring moslem children, proving what bloodthirsty butchers the infidels are.
Even if snipers or or precision fired Hellfire rockets "take him out" on his balcony, we may only kill an OBL double, allowing "the Mahdi" to be "resurrected from the dead" for new appearances, driving his power and influence still higher into the stratosphere.
This scenario has been his ultimate goal all along I believe. I wonder if anyone at the NSC, CIA , NSA or DOS has prepared a counter move to this very possible, even likely, scenario?
There are a few pro-Western commanders there, but the bombing has undercut their attempts to get rid of the Talis. Prior to September 11, we never thought it was important to do. Now we want it done yesterday.
Which means it can be stopped afterward?
You are reading too much into "until." "Until" does not speak of what occurs afterwards here. Its like Jesus' quote "And lo I am with you, even UNTIL the end of time." at the end of the Gospel of Matthew. Obviously, Jesus wasn't saying he wouldn't be with us after the end of time.
The use of until in the Mahdi quote simply implies that no one will be able to stop the army, and it will be victorious, victory being defined as a complete subduing of the world and the Holy Places of Islam to the rule of Mahdi. It doesn't mean that once they've achieved all their aims, they'll suddenly lose.
Or would the Jihadists just go doubly berserk?
The only example we have to go on is the destruction of the Jewish Temple. This got the Jews pretty riled up, but it didn't destroy their religion, despite its centrality to it.
One can only hope that the nuclear annihlation of the black rock and the great Mosque in Mecca would at least wake some Muslims up to the falsehoods they are laboring under. Others, undoubtedly, would go suicidally nuts, like the Jewish Zealots (Bar Kochba and all that).
That's an understatement, I'm afraid.
I don't think the US or Britain expected the air campaign alone would do the job. Given last weekend's raid and the recent news about the British troops being ready for deployment, I suspect the next phase of the campaign is about to unfold.
Of course it doesn't. Thats because there is no Pakistani middle class. Pakistan consists of 22 rich familes who own almost all of the country and hundreds of millions of starving peasants and slum dwellers, many of whom are essentially slaves on huge fuedal plantations. Their only education, if any at all, comes from the Imam's.
Those men you see rioting in the streets for OBL and Taliban? That's the people of Pakistan.
And as for that Punjabi ruling elite? They are riddled with traitors and Islamic Jihad zealots. Witness the recent year long sabbatical of the head of Pakistan's nuke program in Afghanistan (gee, I wonder what he was up to?). Or the sacking of the Pakistani intelligence chief for acting as a money conduit to Mohammad Atta. You really think those are the only two?
The US can never proclaim ObL officially dead. (Can you imagine what the Arab "coalition" and the liberal world press and the sissies and the women would say? "Okay. It's over. We won. Now for the love of God, can we please stop bombing children's hospitals and old-folks homes and Red Cross shelters? Stop the bombing NOW!")
No. Osama bin Laden must remain "alive" for as long as possible. He is the perfect boogeyman and, by God, we will continue our campaign against terrorism until we get him, lol.
The only way the jihadists could get the momentum to pull off rising this bozo to mahdi is to cripple the US Navy...a nuke or something. If the big dogs over their keep their bite all mahdi wannabes are going to generate nothing more than a little excitement for the crowd control people. A mahdi with no bite is nothing more than any of a number of other murderous wackjobs they have over there. I would say it all depends on the Navy and the folks digesting and responding to the intel on threats.
Nice theory. That's how we captured Aidid so easily back in Mog, right?
No, I wasn't aware of that and thank you for bringing it to my attention. Us Baptists are generally not familiar with Catholic prophecy. I was struck by imagery of Travis McGee and then again by Harpseal hypothesizing the "resurection", if you will, of Sammi Ben Laden. Plus some of the information about the Mahdi prophecy posted here reinforces that. Not at all inconsistant with prophecy.
Yes. Same time frame as I figured.
Regards, LH
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