Posted on 10/23/2001 11:56:18 AM PDT by Pokey78
RICHMOND, Va. (AP) - The Virginia governor's race that belonged to Democrat Mark Warner all summer is suddenly up for grabs, and the reason may have more to do with taxes than with patriotic voters rallying around the president's party.
The latest independent poll, conducted last week, shows Republican Mark Earley trailing Warner by 3 percentage points. The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points, meaning the nation's only governor's race this year besides the one in New Jersey is statistically tied just two weeks before the Nov. 6 election.
Warner's lead, which was as big as 11 points in one poll in late August, has all but evaporated since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
"There was not, in the wake of the Sept. 11 tragedy, a move toward Republican candidates showing up any better or worse in polls," said Mark Rozell, a political scientist at Catholic University in Washington. If anything, he said, people turned away from partisan politics.
For a while, so did the candidates.
After a weeklong hiatus following the attacks, the campaigns resumed with an emphasis on public safety and calls for more money for state intelligence-gathering and police, fire and rescue workers.
Then on Sept. 19, Earley seized on a single paragraph in his opponent's transportation plan and accused the Democrat of plotting to raise taxes.
The paragraph calls for a referendum in suburban Washington on whether to raise local sales taxes to improve transportation in the region, where commuters now sit for hours every week on gridlocked highways.
"He's distorting my position and he knows it," Warner said. "All I've said is that I trust us, the voters of northern Virginia, to make the right decision."
Contrived or not, the tax issue has grabbed the attention of Republicans still reeling from an embarrassing rift between party leaders in the state Senate and GOP Gov. Jim Gilmore, the national party chairman who is barred from seeking re-election by Virginia's unique one-term limit. The feud was over the pace of scheduled tax reductions.
Earley has campaigned as part of President Bush's Republican team since the attacks and played up his government and law-enforcement experience - 3 1/2 years as state attorney general and 10 years in the state Senate. Warner, a wealthy investor from Alexandria, has never held elected office.
Retired math teacher and independent voter Francisco Newman of Richmond said he had decided to support Warner before September and nothing that has happened since has changed his view.
"I figure that neither one of them have anything to do with what happened that day," Newman said. "In all crises, regardless of who's in leadership positions, they answer the call."
University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato said a visit to Virginia by the president, now enjoying high approval ratings, would help Earley. "With that, Earley's got a shot," Sabato said.
But the move could risk Bush's bipartisan backing in Congress while he wages war against terrorism, Sabato said.
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On the Web:
Warner's campaign: http://www.markwarner2001.org
Earley's campaign: http://www.markearley.com
If I FReepmail the text to you, do you have time to post it and bump, etc.?
I still want to see one poll where Earley beats Warner.
I know it is a dead heat, but Earley needs a poll showing him beating Warner .
University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato said a visit to Virginia by the president, now enjoying high approval ratings, would help Earley. "With that, Earley's got a shot," Sabato said.
But the move could risk Bush's bipartisan backing in Congress while he wages war against terrorism, Sabato said.
I bet W doesn't show up for Earley for bi-crap, we will soon find out if W is a Leader of his party too or just a worried about being POTUS.
Why do you want a poll showing Earley leading? Dead heat is fine by me. If it makes you feel better, Earley is stomping Warner among my co-workers. (Of course, we're a rather conservative lot.)
W can help Earley and push him over Warner, but I personally doubt W will do any ad or appearance for Earley.
Remember,Terry McCliff and the DNC will have no problem claiming GOP are losers and no one wants the GOP ideas anymore if GOP loses both races in VA and NJ.
P.S Bret is toast in liberal N.J
So was Whitman four years ago, when she was 9 points down a day or two out. But somebody forgot to tell her that.
Wow, you amaze me with your bravery in picking the frontrunner.
RICHMOND, Va. (AP) _ A national tax-relief organization endorsed Republican Mark Earley on Tuesday, claiming his Democratic opponent's support for a transportation tax referendum amounts to a plan to raise taxes.
The National Taxpayers Union Campaign Fund said it backs Earley because he opposes Internet taxes and has promised to veto legislation allowing a northern Virginia referendum on a local tax increase to finance improved roads.
The NTUCF is the political arm of the National Taxpayers Union.
NTUCF president John Berthoud also praised Earley's commitment to fully phase out the local taxes imposed statewide on personal automobiles, despite a severe downturn in state revenue collections last month and projections for a continued economic slide.
``Mark Earley supports wholeheartedly the phaseout of the hated car tax here in Virginia and now his opponent is equivocating and that is certainly a troubling sign,'' Berthoud said.
Warner has said he would attempt to complete the phaseout in four years if elected, but at a pace the state's economy can sustain.
House and Senate budget leaders said a freeze in the car tax cuts is likely after reports last week that state tax collections had dropped by 8.4 percent last month and were down 2.4 percent for July through September, the first quarter of the 2002 fiscal year.
The 1998 car tax cut law requires that state revenue growth exceed estimates for each of four incremental cuts in the tax to proceed. The cuts advanced from 55 percent of the full tax bill this year to 70 percent, and the phaseout is scheduled to reach 100 percent next July.
Earley made Warner's $2.25 billion transportation proposal a target the day Warner publicly outlined it. Forty percent of the revenue for Warner's plan would come from a one-half cent sales tax increase in several northern Virginia localities provided voters approved it.
Two weeks before election day, Earley was emphasizing the tax issue again, days after a survey by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research found that 55 percent of voters polled in northern Virginia support a referendum but 51 percent said they would vote against increased taxes if the referendum is held.
Initially, Earley had left open the possibility of agreeing to the referendum. In August, he sought and received clarification from ATR's national leader, Grover Norquist, that support for the transportation referendum would not breach that pledge.
Earley argued that seeking Norquist's blessing for agreeing to a tax referendum is different from Warner's position.
``The initiative and the referendum in itself are not equated with a tax increase,'' Earley said. ``The difference is that Mark Warner counts the money from a tax increase in his plan, therefore he clearly wants that money from a tax increase,'' Earley said.
In an Oct. 3 debate, Earley appeared to slam the door on a referendum, saying in that in the current troubled economy, ``I'd veto that bill in a heartbeat.''
^___=
^On the Web
Earley campaign: http://www.markearley.com/
Warner campaign: http://www.markwarner2001.org/
Your guess Coop?
We are always suspicious of people on a "conservative" forum who seem to be a bit too eager to declare "the Democrats will win" in virtually every race they come across. Not to mention "conservatives" who like to attack all the incumbant Republicans, but never say anything bad about the DemocRAT candidate.
And if the above posted happens to be a newbie, well...I suppose they could NOT be a disruptor, but they sure have an odd method of showing up here to "help" the conservative movement. ;-)
Well, you should've caught on days, maybe weeks ago, that we don't appreciate you coming here with your negative swill trying to tear down everything we're busting our butts to accomplish.
We've known all along this race would be a challenge, and for more reasons than you've had time to point out. It's not just the NRA or an endorsement from the President. A lot of stuff has been going on for months.
And now, in the last two weeks, we've got ourselves a horse race and you seem to be back at the gate debating what color the jockey should wear.
Maybe you are a conservative. Maybe you do want Earley to win.
But you've said little to prove it.
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