Posted on 10/23/2001 11:56:18 AM PDT by Pokey78
RICHMOND, Va. (AP) - The Virginia governor's race that belonged to Democrat Mark Warner all summer is suddenly up for grabs, and the reason may have more to do with taxes than with patriotic voters rallying around the president's party.
The latest independent poll, conducted last week, shows Republican Mark Earley trailing Warner by 3 percentage points. The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points, meaning the nation's only governor's race this year besides the one in New Jersey is statistically tied just two weeks before the Nov. 6 election.
Warner's lead, which was as big as 11 points in one poll in late August, has all but evaporated since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
"There was not, in the wake of the Sept. 11 tragedy, a move toward Republican candidates showing up any better or worse in polls," said Mark Rozell, a political scientist at Catholic University in Washington. If anything, he said, people turned away from partisan politics.
For a while, so did the candidates.
After a weeklong hiatus following the attacks, the campaigns resumed with an emphasis on public safety and calls for more money for state intelligence-gathering and police, fire and rescue workers.
Then on Sept. 19, Earley seized on a single paragraph in his opponent's transportation plan and accused the Democrat of plotting to raise taxes.
The paragraph calls for a referendum in suburban Washington on whether to raise local sales taxes to improve transportation in the region, where commuters now sit for hours every week on gridlocked highways.
"He's distorting my position and he knows it," Warner said. "All I've said is that I trust us, the voters of northern Virginia, to make the right decision."
Contrived or not, the tax issue has grabbed the attention of Republicans still reeling from an embarrassing rift between party leaders in the state Senate and GOP Gov. Jim Gilmore, the national party chairman who is barred from seeking re-election by Virginia's unique one-term limit. The feud was over the pace of scheduled tax reductions.
Earley has campaigned as part of President Bush's Republican team since the attacks and played up his government and law-enforcement experience - 3 1/2 years as state attorney general and 10 years in the state Senate. Warner, a wealthy investor from Alexandria, has never held elected office.
Retired math teacher and independent voter Francisco Newman of Richmond said he had decided to support Warner before September and nothing that has happened since has changed his view.
"I figure that neither one of them have anything to do with what happened that day," Newman said. "In all crises, regardless of who's in leadership positions, they answer the call."
University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato said a visit to Virginia by the president, now enjoying high approval ratings, would help Earley. "With that, Earley's got a shot," Sabato said.
But the move could risk Bush's bipartisan backing in Congress while he wages war against terrorism, Sabato said.
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On the Web:
Warner's campaign: http://www.markwarner2001.org
Earley's campaign: http://www.markearley.com
That's real nice that Larry Sabato thinks Earley (tied in the polls) "has a shot" if the President campaigns for him. Of course, Larry is also one of the folks insisting the last 7 polls showing the race within the margin of error are wrong.
I must say, for a completely clueless, uninspiring candidate with no chance of winning, a dead heat's not bad. < / sarcasm >
Russ
You can serve two terms, but not consecutively. Last Governor to do that was Mills Godwin who served first as a Democrat and then as a Republican.
Just about every General Assembly session someone puts in a bill to change that, but it will require a constitutional amendment and usually doesn't get very far. One day it will.
I'm still holding out for an 11th hour appearance of some kind. With Gilmore as Chair of the RNC, this race is important for both Bush and Gilmore. My guess is they're playing it close to the chest because Bush does have to be careful about showing partisanship.
IMHO - he doesn't HAVE to...
from the "for what it's worth department"
Russ
The solution is to get the government out of the bus business and let the free market take over. There's a reason people would rather sit for hours every week on gridlocked highways than ride on public transportation, and it's because public transportation is run by the government!
Is Bret Schundler an underdog? Sure. Can he still win? You betcha. It's an off-Presidential year - normally helpful to Pubbies - and Christie Whitman was down 9 points in the polls the day or two before she won.
So please consider donating time and/or money to Bret's campaign:
Time's running out!!
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