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To: dangus; Polycarp
Catholic Moralists state that families should have at least four children. This isn't a matter of sexual morality but of justice towards society.

I'd bet that figure hadn't been revised since the death rates dropped radically.

The citation is from "Moral Theology" by McHugh & Callan, published 1958.

WHO (I know, a lousy source) uses 2.1% as a replacement rate. Even if "3 or 4" is translated as precisely 3.5, that allows for infertility, a large clerical class, and healthy growth.

You are confusing two closely related concepts. 1) The total fertility rate for the whole female population of child-bearing age and 2) the number of children per family.

The famous 2.1 figure is the replacement level of child-bearing and includes an allowance for children to die in childhood, etc.

The distinction is that the first group includes women who will never marry (about 5%), women who get married to late to have children (about 5%), women who are sterile or have sterile partners (about 10-20% of the remainder), and women who never have children, despite being able (unknown to me, but probably less than about 5%).

When you tally all that up, about 25% of women never have biological children.

To make up for that, the remaining 3 of every 4 women who do have children must have 8 children between them.

To allow for a percentage of children who die while growing up or prior to having children of their own, those remaining women should probably have 9 children in total (no fractional children in a small example), so 3 each. That works out to a fertility rate of 2.25.

To allow for population growth, a minimum of 4 each by these 3 women would be needed, since you can't have fractional children, and the needs of society are the equal duty of all. That works out to a fertility rate of 3.0.

Considering the number of families who have just 1 or 2 children each, those of us having more have quite a hurdle to jump to try to push the whole population over the 2.1 marker for total fertility. In essence, with about 2/3 of familes with children having 2, perhaps 10% with 1, and 20% with 3, the remaining 5% is left with the bag. In order to hit the 1.9 mark, where the US is really at, that 5% has to average about 5 children per family, or 5% of families with children are having 15% of the children, and 25% of families with children (roughly the number with 3 and up), are having roughly 50% of the children.

56 posted on 09/04/2003 6:44:32 PM PDT by Hermann the Cherusker
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To: Hermann the Cherusker
>>To make up for that, the remaining 3 of every 4 women who do have children must have 8 children between them.

>>You are confusing two closely related concepts. 1) The total fertility rate for the whole female population of child-bearing age and 2) the number of children per family.

Well, yes, the 2.1 is the total fertility rate. If you need 2.1 children per female to maintain population levels (and this IS per every female, but in includes infant deaths), and 25% of women have no children, then those who do have children need to have 2.625 children per woman, not 9.

That's how many children you need per family: 2.625.

>>To make up for that, the remaining 3 of every 4 women who do have children must have 8 children between them. >>

Um, yes... but let's not forget you're talking about children per FOUR women, not children per women... If every 4 women must have 8 children, then every woman must have 2 children.
57 posted on 09/05/2003 8:04:44 AM PDT by dangus
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