[Hermann the Cherusker]

My comments on this data are below.

I assumed an average 15 year fertile period for each Marriage beginning one year after the Marriage assuming an age at Marriage of approximately 25.

The moving totals are shown adjacent to the first year within them.

The ratio of the moving totals of Infant Baptisms and Marriages is an indicator of total Catholic fertility for a given year. The peak years of faithfulness to Catholic teaching on Birth Control are clearly the people married in the years 1943 to 1960 and then beginning in 1980 through 1987, which is the latest year possible for the 15 year moving total.

By the one year ratio, it appears that the peak years of births relative to marriages occuring is 1953 to 1964, and then a sudden renewal in the period 1998 to present, which can only be attributed to a sudden at least partial return to the mores of the generation prior to the Baby Boom, because as the number of marriages has plummeted since 1990 by around 30%, the number of Baptisms has held steady. The only conclusion possible is that young Catholic families today are having more children.

These trends would be even more striking if the enormous number of annulments in America since 1970 were accounted for in the moving total of Marriage statistics. With Ordinary Process Annulments running at around 40,000 per year for many years now, assuming just half of those occur among people of childbearing age would result in a running 15 year reduction in the roles of the Married by 300,000, boosting the Baptisms per Marriage number by 7%. Increasing the current ratios by that amount would put the numbers back to the hieghts reached during the Baby Boom.

It is also clear from these numbers that the memories of those pining away for the good old days of the 1950's are faulty. It is impossible that the majority of Catholic families then had 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and more chidren, because there simply are not enough number of Baptisms recorded to support that. In fact, careful personal reflection by these people, and by younger people with regard to older families they know, should show this clearly to be false. The typical Catholic family at that time would probably have been 4 to 5 children. The trend today appears to be heading back in that direction.

This unremarked positive phenomenon is nearly universal in European lands also. For example, France, Lithuania, Germany, Switzerland, and the Czech Republic are now averaging around 3.3 Baptisms per Catholic Marriage in 2003. Ireland and Leichentenstein are averaging around 3.5 Baptisms per Marriage. The Netherlands, Austria, and Belgium are averaging around 3.75 Baptisms per Marriage. Luxmbourg is averaging close to an amazing 4.5 Baptisms per Marriage. The only major sad cases are Italy, averaging just 2, and Spain and Portugal, averaging somewhat more than 2. Mitigating this is the extreme faithfulness of those in Italy who are having Children - nearly every child Baptised is making it through confirmation, unlike in the US, where trends are that 40% never make it to Confirmation.

By way of comparison, the Phillipines, which is widely held out as a model of faithfulness to Church teaching, is averaging about 5 Baptisms per Marriage. The West is closing this gap!

The sudden break with Catholic practice is clear enough in the data in 1968. Intriguing thoough is the equally sudden apparent return starting in 1988 going quickly from 2.7 to 3.5 Baptisms per Marriage in three years, and then again starting in 1998 climbing towards 4.0 with no end in sight.

Also interesting is a check of how many are marrying in the Catholic Church, shown in Column 8. Taking the Marriage figure for any given year, doubling it, and comparing it to the Baptism figure 25 years previous gives a good rough idea of how many people are getting Married in the Church. For those born through 1949 (marred in 1974 on average), the ideal of all being Married in the Church is clearly present. After that, catastrophe strikes, with around 40% of all Catholics marrying outside the Church. Worse, the number of mixed Marriages is about 30% of the total, so the number is really closer to 50% or slightly under of Catholics marrying within the Church. Recent trends in this show no improvement - the seperation of the tares from the wheat in the Fields of the Lord is continuing. And the data also strongly imply a complete breakdown in Catholic education's effectiveness beginning with those starting school around 1959.

[Hermann the Cherusker]

Any pings would be appreciated for discussion of this data I'm bringing forth.

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[Loyalist]

I think you can explain this seeming growth in marital fecundity amongst American Catholics solely by the growing numbers of Hispanics in the United States.

I would bet that outmarriage among the rest of American Catholics is continuing to rise, and births and marriages continuing to fall.

[Coleus]

`

[jwalsh07]

I married outside the Catholic Church. Heck, I was outside the Catholic Church when I got married. But my wife recently converted at 52 and somehow the road led me back to where I came from some time ago.

My granddaughter starts Catholic School this fall.

[Slyfox]

Great find, man. I can tell you have been wearing your Freeper beanie.

[ACAC]

"Worse, the number of mixed Marriages is about 30% of the total"

My marriage was a mixed marriage when we got married. Why is that bad?

[Maximilian]

because as the number of marriages has plummeted since 1990 by around 30%, the number of Baptisms has held steady. The only conclusion possible is that young Catholic families today are having more children.

I see a very obvious alternate conclusion: a higher percentage of children being baptized are illegitimate. This conclusion has the advantage of being supported by your data, and by generally available data about trends in society.

[Onelifetogive]

The only conclusion possible...

Only a very dense researcher (or someone extremely biased) could look at a few columns of data and make that statement. No other conclusions are possible???