[ninenot]

It would seem that we are the only two on this thread who view an increase as an increase, and understand that new religious orders (male AND female) are growing like topsy.

Sad, isn't it?

[sitetest]

Dear ninenot,

"It would seem that we are the only two on this thread who view an increase as an increase, and understand that new religious orders (male AND female) are growing like topsy."

Maybe some of us lurkers do. ;-)

The bad news here is old news. The new news is the good news.

Seriously, though, I remember that once, there were over 500,000 priests in the world. The number did fall dramatically, but the drop seems to have levelled off during Pope John Paul's pontificate. I wonder what additional data points between 1978 and now would look like. I wonder whether, in the years following his becoming pontiff, the numbers declined even more, and perhaps they might already be on an upswing.

In any event, the dramatic rise in seminarians is very good news, and in absolute terms, even better news. With about 60,000 seminarians, one can only expect about 12,000 or so ordinations per year, assuming little fall-off of young men during their seminary years. If the average age at ordination is about 35, and most men serve actively until about 70, over time, that will barely replace some 400,000+ priests. As well, in the short term, because there is a big generational bulge approaching retirement, for a few years, the number of priests could decline even more dramatically.

But 112,000 seminaries could easily produce 20,000+ ordinations per year, over time, and could easily see a rise to around 700,000 priests over the course of a couple of generations.

I know that in our archdiocese, we are seeing that sort of uptrend, in miniature. Going back only four or five years, we scarcely had enough men in the seminary to provide, statistically speaking, replacement levels for the priests we have now (and the problem is exacerbated in that so many of our priests are not far off from retirement age).

But the last few years have seen an upsurge in vocations in our archdiocese. It may be a little early to hope that the upsurge is permanent, but if it continues, it would mean that over time the number of priests in our archdiocese would increase significantly.

So, I go to my KofC meetings, and we pray for more vocations.


sitetest