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You ask how realistic is it that the SSPX will achieve its goals? That's a difficult question to answer. Its ultimate goal is the restoration of traditional Catholicism. Its proximate goal is to provide a safe haven of Mass and sacraments for those coming in from the storm.

I would say it has a very realistic chance of succeeding. This is because the Novus Ordo is already showing signs of self-destruction. There has been a noticeable failure in faith at the top and a loss of confidence in Catholic leadership among the faithful. Corruption abounds.

The SSPX itself has been fairly judicious regarding the recent scandals. It keeps a low profile and doesn't pick fights. In its relations with Rome it has been respectful but firm in its own convictions. It's significant, I think, that it was Rome who made the first move in opening discussions. The SSPX is confident morally since it knows it is defending tradition--the ole faith. It has two thousand years behind it. Rome is on far shakier ground. It has the Pope and the buildings. The Pope is beloved by the faithful. But he won't be around forever--and then the roof could cave in.