[gore3000]

First off, you have no parameters upon which to base your calculation of probability.

Yes, we do have the parameters for the calculation of the random chances of producing a specific gene. It is quite simple really. You take the number of Dna codons, raise that number to the 20th power (the number of the amino acids for which DNA codes) and you have your answer. You do not even need to know math, you just need a good calculator.

[Junior]

Ah, but are you taking into account the affinity of some chemicals for other chemicals, which would up the odds there? Also, are you taking into account the number of reactions taking place at any given time? You see, not all the parameters are understood, so any result must be questionable.