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To: Salvation
From the article: "... but there is about a 50 percent chance we are alone in the entire observable universe."

One of the most impressive lectures I remember from elementary physics was the description of how Maxwell's equations applied to electromagnetic waves derived a propagation velocity for the waves which somewhat unexpectedly turned out to be virtually indistinguishable from the speed of light. These calculations provided very convincing evidence that "light" was an electromagnetic wave.

In this article we are expected to believe that a rigorous calculation of the probability of finding other life in the universe is approximately 50%.

Think about that for a moment.

Imagine the coincidence of multiplying a dozen or so extremely large or extremely small probabilities together and just coincidentally getting a product which is anywhere near the value "1" (as is the case with a probability of 53%, for example).

If any of the factors making up the product were uncertain by a factor of 100, then that factor alone could cause the resulting product to vary from a low of 0.01 to a high of 100. I doubt very seriously that the combination of factors which make up the Drake Equation are sufficiently well known to ascertain that the probability of finding other life in the universe can be thought of as equivalent to a coin flip. It's much more likely that the incertainties in such a calculation would span many, many orders of magnitude.

There would be three possible outcomes I might expect.

One would be that there is a wide range of probabilities but that the entire range is one of very tiny numbers.

The second possible outcome is quite the opposite; that is, the entire range consists of very large numbers; indicating that the probability is almost certain.

The final possible outcome would be that the range of results goes from the very tiny to the very large; indicating that we are quite uncertain whether there is little chance of other life or whether there is almost certainly other life.

52 posted on 07/13/2018 11:40:40 AM PDT by William Tell
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To: William Tell

“These calculations provided very convincing evidence that ‘light’ was an electromagnetic wave.”

Just my two cents, but the very first thing God said to create everything was “Let there be light.” But the sun and moon and stars weren’t created until later. I think that first “light” was energy. And using E=MCC, matter was created. Sort of like the Big Bang. (Well - maybe exactly like the Big Bang.)

Speaking of physics. I’ve also wondered if God, when making up the rules said “Okay - so gases are light, liquids are more dense, and solids are the most dense.” But, after the first winter and all the lakes died off and killed all the stuff He had growing in them because the ice sank to the bottom, He had to go back to the drawing board? Probably not, seeing as He doesn’t make mistakes, but.....?


68 posted on 07/13/2018 4:43:09 PM PDT by 21twelve
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