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What you are really saying is “If you take Paul out of context, it invalidates the promises and prophecies of the old testament”

That's a slanderous characterization. I am making a good faith effort to use scripture to interpret scripture, rather than impose preconceived notions. If something is true, it can always withstand additional scrutiny. And one need not resort to aspersions.

Not all Israel is of Israel.

In light of Ephesians 2:11-22 this can mean one of two things: (1) that "all Israel" includes NT believers and all physical Israel; or (2) that "all Israel" includes NT believers and a remnant of physical Israel. Since Paul has already explained that there still exists a faithful remnant, I must conclude that (2) is the correct interpretation.

This is further bolstered by verse :8 where Paul states explicitly that not all of the seed of Abraham are the children of God, but it is only the children of promise which are counted for the seed. So, the promises were made only to the children of promise, the seed. Galatians 3:16 clarifies who the promised seed "is" (singular), namely, Jesus Christ. So, I must conclude that the children of promise (plural) can only be referring to the plurality which are "in Christ", that is, believers/joint heirs.

This interpretation is consistent with Ephesian 2:11-22 where the "commonwealth of Israel" consists of both old and new testament believers. No others.

Does this exclude the modern nation state of Israel? Do not see how not.

Let's examine "all Israel" in greater detail:

"all Israel" cannot mean all physical Israel, because we know that many who have been part of physical Israel have not been saved. To wit: the Mark 3:28 Jewish scribes who blasphemed the Holy Spirit can never be saved. Same goes for the John 8:52 Jews/Pharisees who attributed Jesus' power to a demon and not the work of the Holy Spirit, these fall within that same condemned group. So "all Israel" cannot be "all Jews ever".
But some want to restrict the meaning of the phrase to "all Israel" at the time of Jesus' return. Well, that's a self-serving definition. Surely there are some who are unredeemable due to timing or having committed unforgivable sins (like that mentioned above). But Paul has not qualified the term in any way (i.e. all when ...). Romans 11:25 says Israel has undergone blindness "in part", not "in whole", again suggesting that there will be a modern remnant at that time which shall be saved. Nor does the subordinate clause "until the gentiles be come in" necessarily imply that the blindness will be lifted at this point. It simply marks an end point and that is when Jesus returns to rapture his saints and pore judgement upon the earth. There won't be anytime for non-believers to wake up and see the error of their ways. Besides, most, if not all, will have taken the mark of the beast and that is another group that cannot be saved (Revelation 14:9-10).
Then there's the problem of what actually constitutes "Israel". A citizen of the modern state of Israel? Any Jew anywhere? Any person (descendant) with a smattering of Jacob's genetic material? What exactly?

The only reasonable understanding is that "all Israel" is referring to that group of humans which are elect, chosen by God before the foundation of the world, because he foreknew in his timeless state, what each man would do, whether they would trust in Jesus Christ to save them, or reject God's gift and trust instead in their own works.

Paul is making a point about gentiles being grafted in to the commonwealth of Israel, not about Israel no longer being Israel.

You are using faulty logic. Just because gentiles can be grafted into Israel does not mean Israel is no longer Israel. If I adopt children, it doesn’t mean all of the natural children are no longer children. That is the faulty logic you are using.

Romans 11 clearly states Israel has not been rejected.

Jeremiah 31 says Israel will never cease to exist.

Deuteronomy 30 is a promise given to actual children of Israel that they wherever they live, if they repent and follow God, they will be given the land back.

Deuteronomy 30:4-6 “Even if you have been banished to the most distant land under the heavens, from there the Lord your God will gather you and bring you back. 5 He will bring you to the land that belonged to your ancestors, and you will take possession of it. He will make you more prosperous and numerous than your ancestors.”

Words from Paul explaining grafting in of Gentiles were not meant to proclaim the end of ethnic Israel and they do not proclaim that.

Your faulty logic thinking grafting in of Gentiles means the end of ethnic Israel is simply incorrect. Jews were promised the land for all time. They have returned in our time, as the all prophets predicted.

Amos 9:15. “I will plant Israel in their own land,
never again to be uprooted from the land I have given them,”says the Lord your God.”

Zephaniah 3:20 “At that time I will gather you;
at that time I will bring you home.
I will give you honor and praise
among all the peoples of the earth
when I restore your fortunes
before your very eyes,”
says the Lord.”

So the prophets are very clear. Ethnic Israel was promised a return to the land in the latter days, and it has happened in our time. Pretty amazing in my book. I don’t know why someone would want to deny it.