John 3:5 specifically states that it requires water AND the Holy Ghost to enter the Kingdom of God.
It does not say just the Holy Ghost, it says BOTH. The literal meaning of the scripture requires actual water.
Both - not one or the other (just the spirit or just the water)
It is really very straightforward and once again it is the Catholics who go by the literal meaning of both requirements of the passage.
And yet, if one doesn’t believe then one isn’t saved, so baptism doesn’t and can’t save anyone.
Nor do we see anywhere that states that if you believe but are not baptized, you are not saved.
It was Abraham’s belief that was credited to him as righteousness. Circumcision was only the outward sign of that and followed his belief.