Well, it's not 100% about opinion-polling.
#1...we know which states went Obama in '08...though we know some of them will flip back in '12.
#2 We also know which states have been "POTUS-blue" -- and conversely "POTUS-red" going back numerous elections.
IoW, you don't have to be a "poll truster" to know that Utah will be safely in Romney's camp -- and that if 100% of FREEPERs voted for a third-party candidate -- that Romney would still easily take Utah.
“Well, it’s not 100% about opinion-polling.”
Fair enough, but it seems to me it is only 100% not about opinion polling in a very few states, either totally blue or totally red. In some other states, even those that have gone blue for a while, one is taking a risk by trusting opinion polling before the fact over all other factors, such as last election’s exit polling.
For instance, you are asking Christians to vote third party in places like NJ, CT, and Minnesota. Those are three rare blue states where Catholics actually voted against Obama in 2008, and will probably vote againsts him by more this time. It might not mak a difference, but with the third party for sure it won’t, in my opinion.
This strategy, at least for me, relies too much on opinion polling before the fact. All it would take is skewed or biased opinion polling in moderately safe blue or red states and the third party voting would become important in the election, which defeats the purpose of the voting strategy, at least to my understanding.
Freegards