there have problably been more murders in chicago in one week than there have been in lebanon all year. There is no violence in lebanon except from a few thefts from syrian “refugees”. The last visit of JPII was very smooth and alot of muslim civilians lined the streets to cheer for him. We might not like to admit it but there is alot from christianity that muslims do believe in.
John Paul II visited Lebanon in 1997. The situation has changed somewhat since then.
I have even read recent speculation that Syria’s Assad has calculated that while he cannot maintain rule over the majority of Sunni dominated Syria, his army is powerful enough to completely dominate western Alawite (Shiite) Syria, from the southern border through the Mediterranean coast.
However, this is dependent on Hezbollah splitting off eastern Lebanon to join with western Syria and form a new, Shiite dominated nation. This would effectively double the size of his army at the same time, and would be fully supported by Iran.
The Lebanese are ill equipped to prevent this, and might even accept it in that their government is stymied by Hezbollah, yet they have no effective controls over Hezbollah dominated territory. They would finally be able to rule a smaller Lebanon.
And this is just one scenario of a very complex situation.
By far, though, the biggest threat to the Pope would be assassination by bombing, for which there are endless experts in the region, Lebanese and foreign, government sponsored and independent.
And Iran has been sending dozens of assassination teams to every corner of the world, fortunately most of whom are compromised or at least incompetent. Large contingents of their parent organization, al-Quds, are currently in Syria aiding Assad with their willingness to slaughter Syrian women and children.
Balance all of this with what might be gained from a Papal visit to Lebanon.