Anatomy of defeat [CA's Proposition 4 defeated by unmarried, unchurched, childless]

California Catholic Daily ^ | November 6, 2008

[Alex Murphy]

Self-described Catholics, Christians, married couples and parents approved of Proposition 4 – the family notification before a minor’s abortion initiative – by wide margins on Nov. 4, but their support was not enough to pass the measure. The Secretary of State reports that Proposition 4 failed by a margin of 52.1% no to 47.9% yes.

Details on the breakdown of how Californians voted were published yesterday in an Election Day exit poll commissioned by the Sacramento Bee and conducted by the polling firm Edison/Mitofsky, which interviewed 2098 voters.

According to the Sacramento Bee exit poll, 60% of voters who identified themselves as Catholic voted in favor of the family notification initiative, while 59% of those who described themselves as “Protestant/Christian” voted yes. Respondents who said they belonged to no religion voted 84%-16% against Proposition 4.

Among voters who said they attend church weekly, the margin was 76% yes to 24% no, while those who said they attend church “occasionally” voted 56% to 44% against the initiative. Those who said they never attend church voted 78% to 22% against Proposition 4.

Married voters, according to the exit poll, favored the measure 59% to 41%, with unmarried voters opposing it 66% to 34%. Parents approved of Proposition 4 by a 10% margin – 55% yes to 45% no.

The poll also identified respondents by race, finding that whites voted 54% to 46% against the initiative; African-Americans favored the measure 54% to 46%; Hispanics voted 55% to 45% in favor; and Asians voted 58% yes to 42% no.

Proposition 4 lost among Democrats and independents, the Bee reported, with Democrats voting 63% no to 37% yes, and independents rejecting the measure 54% to 46%. Republicans overwhelmingly favored the initiative, 70% yes to 30% no, the poll found.

[Alex Murphy]

Proposition 4 (California Constitutional Amendment For Parental Abortion Notification Alert), by the numbers:

47.9% yes, 52.1% no - State overall

76% yes, 24% no - Weekly church goers
70% yes, 30% no - Republicans
60% yes, 40% no - Catholics
59% yes, 41% no - Protestants
59% yes, 41% no - Married
58% yes, 42% no - Asians
55% yes, 45% no - Parents
55% yes, 45% no - Hispanics
54% yes, 46% no - African-Americans
46% yes, 54% no - Whites
46% yes, 54% no - Independents
44% yes, 56% no - Occasional church goers
37% yes, 63% no - Democrats
34% yes, 66% no - Unmarried
22% yes, 78% no - Non church goers
16% yes, 84% no - No religion

[pepsionice]

The impression I get is that the gay-marriage advocates are completely shocked. They felt the Obama trend and their efforts were enough, and this would vote in their favor. I’m guessing that they will try to take this to the Supreme Court, but this pretty means that they can’t accept what the public says as legit.

As for those who are married already...I’m thinking they will insist they are ok....and pretend to just stay that way. But here is the interesting twist...when one of these guys shows up to get a divorce...the judge is likely to deny them a divorce because they are legit married. So I see lots of issues coming up.

[newguy357]

Wrong proposition

[ZGuy]

This also needs to include the pro-life people who voted against it because of what they saw as some very bad provisions which made it unsupportable.