We have never said that the Spirit does not lead.
We have had 2000 years of people claiming that the Spirit has led them to do this, do that or do the other. While in conflict with and opposed to others that claim the same.
The Spirit may lead in stages, but not in conflict.
Well, I think we have completely different ideas about what constitutes "leadership" by the Spirit. I simply look to verses such as the following:
Rom 8:13-14 : 13 For if you live according to the sinful nature, you will die; but if by the Spirit you put to death the misdeeds of the body, you will live, 14 because those who are led by the Spirit of God are sons of God.
[Who are "those", and what sort of leading is being referenced here? I think you are forced to say believers are led to only a superficial and "minimal" degree, since so much power must be reserved for the Magisterium.]
Gal 5:18 : But if you are led by the Spirit, you are not under law. [A clear reference to salvation in terms of what a true believer looks like. This is much greater than nudges and suggestions.]
John 16:13-15 : 13 But when he, the Spirit of truth, comes, he will guide you into all truth. He will not speak on his own; he will speak only what he hears, and he will tell you what is yet to come. 14 He will bring glory to me by taking from what is mine and making it known to you. 15 All that belongs to the Father is mine. That is why I said the Spirit will take from what is mine and make it known to you.
I know the standard Apostolic position is that verses like this were only directed to the Apostles, and by extension many hundreds of thousands of priests throughout the ages, regardless of their personal worthiness(es). As with other verses also so interpreted, it really leaves the Spirit's leading of the laity to be much of a joke, IMO. For anything that actually matters, my understanding is that the hierarchy of the Church claims SOLE authority to receive and interpret any messages from God. By all appearances, that would leave the job of the laity to pretty much follow the men of the Church before following any other entity. If God ONLY leads the hierarchy of the Church on important matters, then what can a layman do? He either conforms, or he is excommunicated and, in his mind, is condemned to hell forever.
The Spirit may lead in stages, but not in conflict.
Sure, but to then claim that your particular Church THEREFORE holds ALL TRUTH doesn't make sense. There are tons of examples of hierarchs of your Church disagreeing with the majority. Are the positions of your official Church based on a majority vote of hierarchs?
As to conflict, we learn early in the NT that a personal conflict led greatly to the further spreading of the Good News. That isn't automatically a bad thing.