I'm usually the last person to be the cynic, the skeptic...but you know, look how many times this same story has been reported this year.
About the half of the SSPX...I would guess the split would be more along a 70-30, with the 70 coming back in the fold.
These splits always seeem to happen in the cases like this. The Russian Orthodox Church Outside of Russia (ROCOR) is going through the same thing as they prepare to re-enter full communion with Moscow. I think the appropriate decisionmakers, like the Holy Father here, will just make allowances for that kind of thing and keep on moving ahead.
Oremus--and hard.
70-30 on the episcopal, clerical, or lay level? Is your guess for North AMerica or world wide?