It's pretty clear that the first couple ballots will all deal with Ratzinger. His two homilies (at funeral and at Pro Eligendo mass today) have revealed his heart and mind; he's chaired the meetings of the Cardinals all last week. And so the first order of business will be: should he be Bishop of Rome, or not? The first ballot today is usually ceremonial, in which cardinals vote for people out of sympathy or national pride. But tomorrow's second ballot will reveal quite a lot: if Card. Ratzinger's numbers go up, then we may have a very short conclave; but if his number goes down, then we will have a long-ish one (3-4 days) as the cardinals search around for a compromise candidacy. All in all, for the first time, I have the feeling that I wouldn't be surprised if Card. Ratzinger were chosen on the 3rd ballot (i.e., the second one tomorrow).