[sinkspur]

Dumb Ox has pointed out that wagers on papal elections, the duration of a pontificate, or the creation of new cardinals were all forbidden on pain of excommunication by Pope Gregory in his bull "Cogit nos", issued March 21, 1591.

Excommunication for a wager? Perhaps in 1591 security was such that these wagers could influence the conclave.

Not likely today.

[Romulus]

I don't think influence was the problem, or wagers on duration and new cardinals would not also have been outlawed. I know how radically pragmatic you are, but do please consider that the pope may have had a theological motive. To make sport of the Holy Spirit's providential action in the election or lifespan of the vicar of Christ amounts to blasphemy.