"Alarming" decline in French priestly vocations

CWNews ^ | Jan 26, 2004

[Maximilian]

Pope's blunt talk confronts "alarming" decline in French priestly vocations
Vatican, Jan. 26 (CWNews.com)

In the latest in a series of blunt messages to visiting bishops from France, Pope John Paul II spoke of the "alarming" decline in the number of priests serving the Church in that country.

With the French bishops making their ad limina visits to Rome, in groups arranged by ecclesiastical province, the Holy Father has delivered unusually strong and candid addresses about the health of the Church there. As he met with bishops from the provinces of Toulouse and Montpellier on January 25, he continued his unsparing analysis.

Examining the decline in priestly vocations, the Pope acknowledged that many young men look upon the discipline of celibacy as a major impediment. But he insisted the celibacy is an "essential dimension of the priestly life." He urged the bishops to help their priests-- and young men who might be interested in the priesthood-- understand celibacy as an affirmation of their vocation in service to the Church.

The Pontiff went on to say that priests should be on guard against "the seductions of the world," and strive constantly to increase their fidelity to their vocation, "which conforms them to Christ, chaste and totally dedicated to the Father." Any attitude that runs against that dedication, he said, is "a counter-witness for the Christian community and for the entire world."

John Paul II told the visiting French bishops that he could "readily understand how you might feel demoralized" because of the problems facing the French Church. He reminded them that the current difficulties are attributable to "social changes, new forms of behavior, the decline of moral and religious principles, and widespread consumerism."

Because of that situation, the Pope continued, the most important challenge for the Church in France is the re-evangelization of the people. He added that the bishops would face a formidable challenge in preaching the Gospel to people who do not understand Church teachings, and have "lost even the memory of the cultural influence of Christianity."

© Copyright 2004 Domus Enterprises. All rights reserved.

[Maximilian]

More good news about the pope -- now he's confronting the feckless French bishops.

On the other hand, this article points out the futility of those who want to blame the American bishops. The particular bishops in America are not the source of the problem. We are actually doing much better than other countries with large Catholic populations. The problem is world-wide. Those who laughed at the "springtime decay" mathematical function in the last article about vocations, the one that predicted virtually no seminarians in a couple of decades, can merely look to France and other European countries that are a little bit ahead of us on the curve to see where we are headed.

[malakhi]

In the latest in a series of blunt messages to visiting bishops from France, Pope John Paul II spoke of the "alarming" decline in the number of priests serving the Church in that country.

The supply of imams, on the other hand, is growing rapidly...

[CatherineSiena]

In the latest in a series of blunt messages to visiting bishops from France, Pope John Paul II spoke of the "alarming" decline in the number of priests serving the Church in that country.

Intriguing. Given the commentary we have seen regarding the reporting of other declining numbers...

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-religion/1061488/posts?page=7#7

does this mean that the Pope is guilty of using the "wrong" statistics perpetuated by "Chicken-Little 'Sky Is Falling'" types? Perhaps the Pope's "failure to take into account obvious factors and using the wrong data set shows an intention to promote an agenda rather than diagnose a problem"? Are the Pope "and his source dishonest at best"? ;-)

Most of the information I have seen relates to the Church in the U.S., so I'm not intimately familiar with the situation in France. I'd be interested to see the entirety of the quote containing the word "alarming" and the corresponding numbers.

[Loyalist]

Islam will kill the Church in Western Europe as surely as it did in North Africa and Asia Minor.

If Western Europe doesn't want to make even an effort at saving itself, it isn't worth saving.

[reed_inthe_wind]

are a little bit ahead of us on the curve

I think the statistical analysis would benefit by adding another variable - something that measures Catholic family size and unity. In general, America has a higher rate of birth than Europe. It may be that larger families generate more vocations. If I am right, it may be false to assume that Europe is ahead of us on the curve.

[Hermann the Cherusker]

I think the statistical analysis would benefit by adding another variable - something that measures Catholic family size and unity. In general, America has a higher rate of birth than Europe. It may be that larger families generate more vocations. If I am right, it may be false to assume that Europe is ahead of us on the curve.

Not true among practicing Catholics. Most European countries, other than Italy and Spain, produce a similar number of Infant Baptisms per Catholic Marriage as the US. As of late, this ratio has hovered between 3-4 Baptisms celebrated per Marriage performed every year for about 15 years (the 1960's peak was 4.25). The birth-dearth in Europe is among the secularists. Good riddance to them too.

[Barnacle]

The supply of imams, on the other hand, is growing rapidly...

I was in Paris in '94. When we exited the freeway in a high density area of town to turn around. As we waited at the red light, a half dozen Arabs ran up and started washing our windows. It was a Twilight Zone moment.

[Barnacle]

It's all just a part of the alarming decline of France.

[Hermann the Cherusker]

Those who laughed at the "springtime decay" mathematical function in the last article about vocations, the one that predicted virtually no seminarians in a couple of decades, can merely look to France and other European countries that are a little bit ahead of us on the curve to see where we are headed.

Yes, please, let me laugh at you again, because you never look at the numbers Max, and you have no answer to what I posted on the previous thread dissecting the Chicken Little Hysteria about Priest shortages.

I posted links from the Vatican Congregation for the Clergy website to the statistics for France and elsewhere to last time. France has had about 100-130 diocesean ordinations per year since 1977.

http://www.clerus.org/statistica/5.htm

At the same time, as the same page shows, the defection problem has been reduced from 130-165 per year down to 15-20. So France has gone from annual losses of Priests in the early-70's to gains per year of ~110 to offset mortality.

France has had about 1100 Diocesean Major Seminarians since 1976 (despite the decline in Religious practice in France during that time).

http://www.clerus.org/statistica/3.htm

France had 482 Religious Major Seminarians in 1969 and 560 in 1997 (despite the decline in Religious practice in France during that time). This up from a low of 137 in 1975.

http://www.clerus.org/statistica/4.htm

Total Major Seminarians (Religious and Diocesean) in France has been holding steady at 1600 since 1974.

http://www.clerus.org/statistica/2.htm

The raw statistics don't lie.

Interestingly, if you poke around enough on:

http://www.clerus.org/menu06_eng.html

You will find the peak of French ordinations occurring in 1947, with 1649 men ordained. France then underwent a rapid collapse, with ordinations dropping to 1028 in 1951, 563 in 1961, and 349 by 1969.

Did Vatican II happen in France in 1947?

Even more interesting are some statistics on the site showing the number of Priests in France and elsewhere since 1913/1914. In 1913, France had 65,750 Priests. It was just 47,015 in 1934, 52,951 in 1946, 50,845 in 1957, 44,408 in 1964, 45,507 in 1969, and 24,251 today.

Maybe Vatican II occured in France in 1915?

France will of course continue to shed Priests rapidly for about 15 years, since the current diocesean+religious ordaintion-defection rate will only sustain a population of about 6000 Priests.

But lets not mistake the genesis of this problem in 1967 when France has been dropping in ordinations per year since 1947. This is the steady state of the last 30 years catching up to the rapid decline of 1945-1975.

As to this being where we are headed, the US has been running about 450 secular ordinations per year, giving a predicition of about 20,000 dicoesean clergy once equilibrium is achieved (and probably 12,000 religious priests). This compares to around 30,000 (and 18,000 religious)today. This will be a crisis in those dicoeses that have caused this drop (LA, Cleveland, Rochester, etc.), and it will not be a crisis in those that have continued to produce vocations or take action to change course now (Omaha, Philadelphia, Baltimore, etc.). The decline will end at this equilibrium in about 20 years if current rates of ordaintions hold up.

The problem is world-wide.

We'll need some definitions here of "problem" and "world-wide". Brazil, Mexico, Philippines, Nigeria, Poland, and India, for example, have a growing number of Priests. Others like Slovakia, Ukraine, and Argentina have a stable number. Even most European countries with shrinking numbers probably have more priests per practicing Catholic now than at any time since the early 1900's.

[Hermann the Cherusker]

does this mean that the Pope is guilty of using the "wrong" statistics perpetuated by "Chicken-Little 'Sky Is Falling'" types?

Actually, seeing the decline in France starting in 1947, it would seem the Pope is about 30-40 years too late in bringing it to the attention of the Bishops. At this point, even if the seminaries were to suddenly be flooded in France and ordinations returned to 1000 per year starting in 2010 (7 years of seminary!), France is destined to drop to around 15,000 Priests before any recovery could occur. Since things don't just turn around like that, odds are very good France will inevitably be at under 10,000 Priests in 15 years no matter what is done today.

[Maximilian]

Thanks for the statistics which are very interesting. I see no data, however, that contradicts the pope's message about an alarming crisis. And the crisis has worsened alarmingly since Vatican II. Look at a few of your statistics:

It was just 47,015 in 1934, 52,951 in 1946, 50,845 in 1957, 44,408 in 1964, 45,507 in 1969, and 24,251 today.

Rather than a pre-Vatican II decline in France, one sees a steady state with a normal amount of variation around a mean during the time period 1934 to 1969. Since then the population of priests has fallen in half. And according to your own analysis, it is inevitable that it will fall by more than half again in the near future. This sounds very much like a "decay function" to me.

France will of course continue to shed Priests rapidly for about 15 years, since the current diocesean+religious ordaintion-defection rate will only sustain a population of about 6000 Priests.

This looks very much like a continued "alarming decline." The population of priests will be down to less than a seventh of what it was in 1969.

To answer a few of your questions:

You will find the peak of French ordinations occurring in 1947, with 1649 men ordained. France then underwent a rapid collapse, with ordinations dropping to 1028 in 1951, 563 in 1961, and 349 by 1969. Did Vatican II happen in France in 1947?

Very likely. After all, America was considered rather a parochial backwater in the period between WWII and Vatican II. We were thought to be stuck in the 19th century. Meanwhile, France was producing Teilhard de Chardin and the rest of the "nouvelle theology" bunch. They were cutting edge in line with Vatican II before the rest of the world caught up. The French theologians who were condemned by Pope Pius XII were all rehabilitated at Vatican II.

So it is not so surprising to see the decline begin in France right after the war. I'm sure there are many other causes as well. But one has to ask what was the state of the traditional Catholic faith and practice in France even before Vatican II. In America it was experiencing a golden age. In France it was likely already suffering badly from the aftermath of WWII including Jean Paul Sartre and the rise of socialism.

One can also see that the immediate post-war ordinations are extraordinary. Continued years like those of 1947 - 1951 would have produced a population of priest much larger than what they had currently, in fact back to the WWI peak. So by 1961 they had returned to a more normal number of 560 which is still 5 times larger than what they are ordaining today.

In 1913, France had 65,750 Priests. Maybe Vatican II occured in France in 1915?

Once again, the answer is yes. In 1915 France had recently undergone a severe anti-Catholic revolution. The French constitution was changed to enshrine separation of Church and State. So the 65,000 priests in France in 1915 would have been ordained before this radical upheaval, and the subsequent drop in ordinations would reflect the new reality of secular France.

This same scenario which produced the disastrous results in France that you have documented, was then extended to the whole world by the Vatican II documents on religious liberty and freedom of worship.

[StAthanasiustheGreat]

I am going to disagree with you slightly. The decline in vocations in France I think is very different than here. France is a thoroughly Secular Country and has been increasingly so since 1798. I imagine in fact that if you looked at French Vocations they have been in decline since that point. In the US you still find packed Churches, that is not the case in France, and hasn't been for at least a century or more. In that respect the US is very different than Europe, we are a decidedly more religious society (as scary as that is) than Europe, who abandoned God in the late 19th century.

[SergiusAthanasius]

It is a fact that during the years from 1976 until his death Abp.(St.) Marcel Lefebvre was ordaining more priests each year from the country of France than the entirety of the French episcopate. Today the Society of St. Pius X, as well as the Society of St. Peter, as well as the traditional Benedictines, still ordains more Priests per year than the entirety of the French episcopate. The new mass is an utter failure as far as vocations go. Long live the Traditional Latin Mass.

[RFT1]

I would be intrested to see a chart that tracks number of ordination with tghe percentage of Catholcis attending mass weekly. Cardinal George mentioned a few years ago about the decline of weekly mass attendence and vocations.

[FITZ]

I read Mexico also has a priest shortage -- I don't know about the other countries you listed but I doubt there is a surplus anywhere.

[FITZ]

More good news about the pope

Maybe some of it's a question of quality versus quantity. If there is a shortage of priests, it is still because the ratios are low --- the shortage is relative to the number of Catholics and nonpracticing Catholics don't need priests. In this area the real shortage is the so-called Catholics showing up for Mass every Sunday --- out of 600,000 counted Catholics only 70,000 are found in Church on a good Sunday.

[Hermann the Cherusker]

I think you missed the point.

The decline was 1905 to 1975. Since 1975, the Church in France has stabilized its situation and actually made forward progress in reducing defections to ensure a continued supply of faithful priests in the future.

The Pope is accusing the Bishops of a problem which existed under their predecessors. The current Bishops can do nothing to stop a continued slide in the total Priests number in the next 10-20 years, because it is built inevitably into the size of the new church built since 1905 - a decline of ordinations 30-50 years ago leading up to a steady state ensures an eventual plateauing regardless of actions now.

The steady state that appears to exist from 1934 to 1969 is a matter of coinciding peaks and valleys in ordinations of the priestly generation (a period of 40-50 years, i.e. age 25-30 to 70-75). Thus, the decline in ordinations of 1945-1970 mirrors a decline from 1905-1930 after the revolution in Church-State relations and the catastrophe of WWI, so the number of Priests is not affected immediately in the pre-Vatican II period by the drastic collapse.

The size of the Church in France today is fairly nominal - perhaps 10-20% of the population at the outermost, as compared to near universality in 1900. Therefore, a corresponding collapse in the abolsute number of priests is only to be expected, especially with the reductions in number of children being born.

Again, the real tale of the numbers is that John Paul II and Co. have stabilized the Church in Europe and Oceania, and North America at the low level reached after Vatican II, Humane Vitae, and the 1960's circa 1975.

The question is, what next? The decline is over. What is the future?

As to France, the collapse of Catholicism there was noted by American Catholics in the Army in WWII - the Churches were already emptied of most but the old women.

[sobieski]

Didn't the "Liturgical Movement" that was a big part of the disaster (I mean VII) start in France? That was the country that provided the impetus to a lot of those mistakes.

[Cicero]

Well, yes. It's not just an American problem. It's a problem of our whole western civilization, which appears to be in decay. The obvious damage has emerged since Vatican II, but there must have been rot there before or it would not have spread so quickly.