POSSIBLE CA EXIT POLLS--LEAKED DATA

Calblog ^ | October 7, 2003 | Armed Prophet

[publius1]

Apparently Leaked Exit Polling Says... Armed Prophet here, with what I believe is a major scoop, though it may not be entirely surprising.

That is, I'm hearing that early exit polling -- which includes absentees -- already shows the recall and Arnold both with "double digit" leads. (I'm a bit surprised to hear that those numbers are already being tabulated, but this is what I'm told.) Speculation is the race may be called within a few hours of the polls closing.

I obviously can't vouch for it myself -- I'm in DC -- but the source I'm hearing this from is very well-connected in state and national politics; if anybody would know this kind of thing out here, it's this person. So take this information with a bit of caution. But if I'm right, you heard it here first.

(Cross-posted -- sort of -- on Armed Prophet.)

[Thud]

34% sounds high for Bustamante. Non-whites candidates for California state office tend to get about 5% less at the ballot box than in the final pre-election polls.

The 65% predicted turnout (borne out by turnout so far) is bad news for Davis. That might be the same percentage as vote to recall him.

My personal prediction on the replacement vote is 40-45% for Schwarzenegger, 25% for Bustamante, 20% for McClintock and 10-15% for the other 140+ candidates combined. Unless the hackers really do crack the system and crank up the vote for Gary Coleman.

[cabbieguy]

I sure hope the voters in Calif. don't get over confident with reports like this. Sounds like a RAT covert plan to get the networks to call the election for Arnold and the recall a win to discourage voters who haven't yet voted for either. Remember the people in northwest Florida who were going to vote for Bush, but didn't go to the polls because the network called the state for Gore. BEWARE,THE RATS ARE EVIL.

[Not A Snowbird]

So how long will it take the Rats to start picking Bay Area voters up in busses and dragging them to the polls?

[Nataku X]

I think it is best for us to not post exit polling data that we cannot confirm as breaking news. Anyone could make anything up at this point. Just ask Coop.

OK, I'm asking you, Coop... what is our dear AM referring to?

[wjcsux]

If its a GOP blowout, the Dems won't bother.
I wouldn't count on that. Never put ANYTHING past RATS.

[tubebender]

How many absentee ballots out for SF? Over 3 million statewide...

[My2Cents]

Bingo!

[chriscraft]

When I left for work, the polling place at my townhouse complex (Los Gatos, Silicon Valley suburb) had a line out the door (30 persons +). When I voted at 1 PM. the line was still the same.

I've lived here for 15 years and there has NEVER been a line at the polls.

Turnout will be unbelieveable.

[mollynme]

So how long will it take the Rats to start picking Bay Area voters up in busses and dragging them to the polls?

Or digging them up out of the cemeteries...

[Mr. Jeeves]

Sounds like suburban turnout will be really high and inner city turnout will be depressed. This has all the makings of a massacre for the Democrats.

[goldstategop]

I have a feeling their usual "go to the courts to save our bacon" Hail Mary play won't help them this time.

[Walkingfeather]

I live here in Thousand Oaks... Next door to WLV... The turn out has been amazing. WLV will have more dems than thousand oaks... hang in there it will be a blow out

[goldstategop]

A major GOP rout. NONE of the pre-election polls predicted this would happen. If the Democrats can be wiped out in liberal, Democratic California and get buried in a landslide that has major national implications for 2004. Betcha it does.

[aristeides]

With these exit polls coming out, turnout may very well end up being light. A lot of people may figure, why bother? Hopefully more Dems will do that (like Republicans did after the networks prematurely gave Florida to Gore in 2000.)

[Admin Moderator]

LOL

[Thud]

There are only half as many polling places for this special recall election as there are for a general election. That makes the lines bigger. Throw in the complicated ballot which needs explaining and the lines of waiting voters will be still longer.

[aristeides]

A rumor that will send rats into a panic to vote and make GOP lazy.

Doesn't work that way. People prefer to be on the side of a winner. This news is going to make more Dems stay home.

[mo4bush]

A massacre for the Democrats! Sounds good to me.

[goldstategop]

Exactly. I now think this means Arnold will get at least 52 to 53% on Q2. Its going to be a Tuesday Night Massacre of the Democrats.

[LS]

I mentioned on another thread that I just got a phone call from one of Arnie's top campaign people in Orange County. While she believed the polls earlier this week, she said they were VERY concerned about the unions "bussing people in."