U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rise to 399,000 as Companies Hold Off Hiring

Bloomberg ^ | 10-02-03

[Brian S]

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rose by 13,000 to 399,000 Last Week Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans filing initial applications for unemployment benefits rose last week, the government reported, a sign that economic growth has yet to boost demand for workers.

First-time claims during the week that ended Saturday totaled 399,000, an increase of 13,000 from a revised 386,000 a week earlier, the Labor Department said in Washington. The department said about half of the rise came from workers who had been unable to submit claims during Hurricane Isabel.

Companies trying to hold down costs have been reluctant to add to payrolls, instead using gains in efficiency to meet demand while the expansion gains momentum. The economy may have grown in the July-September quarter at the fastest pace since the first three months of 2002, according to a Bloomberg survey.

``The overall message we're getting is that the labor market is still struggling,'' said Doug Porter, a Toronto-based senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., the investment bank, before the report. ``The figures are consistent with no improvement in the trend.''

The number of people continuing to collect state unemployment insurance rose by 62,000 to 3.67 million in the week that ended Sept. 20. The level was the highest since June 28 for continuing claims, which are reported with a one-week lag to initial claims.

The insured unemployment rate, which tends to move with the monthly jobless rate, stayed at 2.9 percent in the week before last. During that week, 10 states and territories reported an increase in new claims, and 43 reported a decrease. The decline included a total reduction of almost 10,000 for North Carolina and Virginia, where Isabel had struck.

Higher Than Forecast

Economists estimated that claims would rise to 395,000 from the initially reported 381,000 the week before, based on the median of 37 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

The four-week moving average of initial claims, a less volatile measure than the weekly number, fell to 403,500 from 408,500.

Tomorrow, the Labor Department is expected to report that the unemployment rate increased in September to 6.2 percent from 6.1 percent, based on the median of 64 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The rate has exceeded 6 percent since May. Payrolls are likely to have fallen for the eighth month in a row.

Productivity expanded during April-June at more than triple the pace of the first quarter, government figures show. The economy may have expanded at a 4.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the most since the early last year, based on the median of forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

Impact on Spending

For the expansion to be sustained, companies will need to start adding workers, economists said. Otherwise, consumer spending will retreat when the extra cash from recent tax cuts and mortgage refinancing dwindles.

``If we don't see an end to job losses by the end of this year, then everyone will be marking down their growth forecasts for next year.'' Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com, an economic forecasting and consulting firm in West Chester, Pennsylvania, before the report.

A ``notable'' risk to the outlook for improvement is ``that household spending could lose its forward momentum, particularly if there is no job growth,'' said Michael Moskow, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, in a letter published yesterday in the bank's ``Executive Update.''

Ford Motor Co., the world's second-biggest automaker by sales, said yesterday it will cut as many as 3,050 jobs in North America by the end of the year, part of an effort by the Dearborn, Michigan, company to reduce global personnel costs 10 percent.

Safeco Corp., a Seattle-based home and car insurer, said it plans to sell its life insurance and asset-management unit and shed 500 jobs.

Yesterday, the New York-based Conference Board's said its consumer confidence index fell in September to the lowest level since the U.S. went to war against Iraq six months ago, as more people voiced concern over jobs.

Some economists expect companies to start hiring before year- end.

``As the economy continues to pick up speed, firms should begin to increase their hiring,'' Moskow said.

Growth is forecast at a 3.8 percent annual rate in both the first and second quarters of next year.

Last Updated: October 2, 2003 08:30 EDT

[Lazamataz]

We're all doomed.

MCDP #3.

Meaningless China Dawg Points

1. You don't have an economics degree, so please don't talk about economies at all. It just makes you look stupid.
2. You are a typical: A) Marxist Leninist Communist; B) Totalitarian; C) Nazi.
3. We're all doomed!
4. More people in America out of work means more stock profits, and my company will pay me more if the stock market goes up. Since it's all about me, I don't care if the rest of you all go to hell.
5. How about that Bama/Arkansas game?
6. You must be a Bush Hater. I don't care if we lose your vote. Good riddence.
7. How much do you want to bet that Bush will win? I will wager up to 1000 yuan.

Kindly print this out and when you need to make another China_Dawg cliched post, you can simply refer to the appropriate number. We'll all know what you mean, and reading your tripe will go much more quickly.

[Texas_Dawg]

With that being said, your ugliness to those who are paying the price for Clinton's perfidy insinuates that you do not belong here. Rather than creating a "wallowing forum", perhaps you should go create some jobs if it's so damn easy.

Is having or not having a job EVER your responsibility or fault... or is it always someone else's? Man... what a way to live.

[Lazamataz]

Is having or not having a job EVER your responsibility or fault... or is it always someone else's? Man... what a way to live.

You'd snicker at people who didn't have jobs during the Great Depression, you would.

Of course, being as it is trading hours, and you seem to be ignoring your (alleged) clients so you can spew trash on FR, it seems you'll be joining the ranks of the unemployed soon.

But, frankly, I don't believe you are a broker anyways.

[Walkin Man]

Heck, they have been saying this for two years!

Anyday now, Americans will be getting hired for new jobs, yeah sure.

In India and Red China there has been an explosion of new jobs aided by the US government of course.

[RiflemanSharpe]

As per China_pup, why are you trying to have a battle of wits with some so wooful unarmed?

[Lazamataz]

As per China_pup, why are you trying to have a battle of wits with some so wooful unarmed?

Well, I hate disrupters and trolls. He's a troll.

[dandelion]

Let's see Dawg, you got here March 23, 2003, and you come here to slap around those who have been on this forum a bunch longer than you. You don't listen, you attack, and then you call it "patriotism". Your main thrust seems to be to attack anyone as "whiny" who talks about their job loss, or denigrate anyone who tries to trend the economy.

As a person who runs her OWN BUSINESS, I try to do my best to make sure I have a clear view of the economy. You are blocking my view, and I'm not sure that you really belong here. Go to DU if you'd like to attack people - that's what they do on their board. On the other hand, newbie, if you'd like to hang around and say something positive, then feel free to stay.

Otherwise, scram. I have a business to run and a country to help keep free, thanks to the military members of my family. Those of us here who want to talk to each other about what we can do to keep this country going will speak to each other, reguardless of the incessant harrassment from people like you.

[Beck_isright]

Good posts Laz. There is a reality check here that everyone ignores, especially the bushbots; that if unemployment continues at this pace, W will not win a second term. Period. But of course they live in this fantasyland where you can run debt forever to purchase goods and services and never have to pay the bill. The bill is coming due soon and as has been seen, most American households are totally unprepared. I'll stand by a prediction I made last winter: If the average price of unleaded gas is anywhere above $1.80 per gallon, W will not win a second term. And if/when the OPEC nations switch from a dollar standard to a Euro standard the price will top $2.00 per gallon almost immediately.

[Texas_Dawg]

Go to DU if you'd like to attack people - that's what they do on their board. On the other hand, newbie, if you'd like to hang around and say something positive, then feel free to stay.

You do realize that most of these doom and gloomers DESPISE our President right? Ask Lazamataz, Willie Green, ARCADIA, riri and all your other forum friends that have been here so long who they are voting for next year. I'm voting for GWB without reserve. Are you? Are your fellow doom and gloomers? Who are the real conservatives here?

[Consort]

I had people like you, the defenders of doom and gloom, in mind when I thought of the Wallowing forum.

[dandelion]

Evidently you don't know who the hell you're talking to because you are so new, so let us set you straight. We got the man elected here on THIS BOARD. I pounded the pavement, protested, and waved my flag inthe faces of those paid to scream for Gore. HERE IN DALLAS. I worked hard to get Bush elected, and I don't need someone telling me to say anything but the truth.

The truth is Clinton sold us all down the river, and it's going to take more than four years - maybe more than that - to recreate the economy that we have lost. Until then, your obstructionism is taking up our valuable time.

Your timing, your attitude, and your lack of knowledge makes me think you came here to disrupt, not to help. If I'm wrong, back off of the hard-working people who are just trying to talk to each other here.

[dandelion]

That's how I know you are a disruptor - and you should be treated as such. I'm not a gloom and doomer, but the only way to keep business alive is to know where my clients are economically. If I'm an idiot, I'll ignore the fact that they are going out of business or losing their homes. If I'm a genius, I will maybe make a living or even a fortune by seeing where the need is. "Find the need and fill it".

You are trying to stop us from doing what needs to be done. Lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way.

[ARCADIA]

You do realize that most of these doom and gloomers DESPISE our President right? Ask Lazamataz, Willie Green, ARCADIA, riri and all your other forum friends that have been here so long who they are voting for next year.

Please feel free to start a new thread on that subject. We are discussing something else here. If you want to participate, at least try to stay on subject.

[Lazamataz]

Your timing, your attitude, and your lack of knowledge makes me think you came here to disrupt, not to help.

Disruptors have gotten much more sophisticated lately. They will come in pretending to be on our side, or some variation thereof. One such example was a very vicious female named Those_Crazy_Liberals. Her whole goal was to spread dissension on the forum.

I have a nose for these disruptors. I can catch their scent better than most.

Texas_Fraud is one such troll.

[RockyMtnMan]

They don't dispise the president. I know I don't. He's a good man with bad fiscal policy and since he's led a charmed life is out of touch with his voting base. Politicians should realize that what the people think is more important than what they think.

The lesson will be learned if they continue their current strategy of ignoring conservatives and telling the unemployed "they need more training".

Bush and most of congress (Rep or Dim) have never had to worry about that next utility bill as most Americans have at one point in their life. I consider that to be out of touch.

[Lazamataz]

That's how I know you are a disruptor - and you should be treated as such.

Disagree. Consort is not a disruptor. He's just a curmugonly older gentleman/woman. His intent does not appear to be to disrupt. He *is* abrupt and short, but he's no disruptor.

[RiflemanSharpe]

They don't dispise the president. I know I don't. He's a good man with bad fiscal policy and since he's led a charmed life is out of touch with his voting base. Politicians should realize that what the people think is more important than what they think.

The lesson will be learned if they continue their current strategy of ignoring conservatives and telling the unemployed "they need more training".

Bush and most of congress (Rep or Dim) have never had to worry about that next utility bill as most Americans have at one point in their life. I consider that to be out of touch.

Thank you for summing it up. My wife and I bust our tails every week and we are still squeezed between higher taxes (local, state, wiped out the tax cut for us), the higher cost of living, and a losing job market. I to think that the leaders are out of touch with the majority of Americans.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Yeah, ignoring bad news makes it go away, right?

[Consort]

You make my case very well. Your mindset is defeatist, pessimistic, you steep in negativity and it bothers you when some of us "disrupt" that shallow thinking. Keep digging.

[Lazamataz]

I think you meant to address this to dandelion. I don't think for a second that you are a disruptor.

I may heartily disagree with you, but that's what FR is all about.