Gallup: Either McClintock or Schwarzenegger Likely Winner in California if Other Dropped Out

Gallup ^ | 9-30-03 | Gallup

[ambrose]

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SOURCE:	http://www.gallup.com
CONTACT INFORMATION:		Media Relations 1-202-715-3030 Subscriber Relations 1-888-274-5447 World Headquarters 901 F Street Washington, DC 20004

 

 

POLL ANALYSES

September 30, 2003

Either McClintock or Schwarzenegger Likely Winner in California if Other Dropped Out

Most of vote for one candidate would go to other

by David W. Moore

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With Arnold Schwarzenegger the Republican front-runner in the California gubernatorial contest, many GOP officials have pressured California State Sen. Tom McClintock to drop out of the race, fearing he will divide the Republican vote and allow Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante to win. A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted over the past weekend, shows that McClintock does indeed draw support away from Schwarzenegger, though not enough to deprive the actor of the lead. But the poll also shows that if Schwarzenegger were not in the race, McClintock would likely be in first place by a substantial margin rather than behind Bustamante.

The poll of California voters, conducted Sept. 25-27, finds McClintock with just 16% of the vote among registered voters, and 18% among probable voters. That puts him in third place behind Bustamante and Schwarzenegger.

Next, I'm going to read a list of some of the 135 candidates running to replace Gray Davis as governor if he is removed from office. After I read these names, please tell me which of these candidates you would be most likely to vote for if the election were held today, if you would vote for someone else, or if you would not vote for anyone for governor. [ROTATED: Actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican; Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante, a Democrat; Columnist AriannaHuffington, an independent; State Senator Tom McClintock, a Republican; and Financial Advisor, Peter Miguel Camejo of the Green Party] (If someone else, who do you plan to vote for?)

	Schwarz- enegger	Busta- mante	McClin- tock	Camejo	Huff- ington	OTHER (vol.)	None/ No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Registered Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	34	28	16	4	2	2	14
Probable Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	40	25	18	5	2	1	9

The third-place showing by McClintock underestimates his overall strength. Both Republican candidates enjoy a favorable rating among more than 6 in 10 probable voters, while fewer than 4 in 10 probable voters give Bustamante a favorable rating. Of the three leading contenders, McClintock has the lowest negatives. Only 20% of probable voters have an unfavorable view of McClintock, compared with a 30% unfavorable rating for Schwarzenegger and 54% unfavorable for Bustamante.

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [NAME], or have you never heard of this person?

Arnold Schwarzenegger

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Never heard of	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
Registered Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	59	31	1	9
Probable Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	63	30	*	7
* Less than 0.5%

Tom McClintock

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Never heard of	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
Registered Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	58	18	7	17
Probable Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	62	20	4	14

Cruz Bustamante

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Never heard of	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
Registered Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	44	46	3	7
Probable Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	37	54	3	6

Furthermore, when McClintock is pitted against just Bustamante, among probable voters the Republican state senator beats the Democratic candidate handily -- by 19 percentage points.

If the choice were between Cruz Bustamante, the Democrat and Tom McClintock, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for [ROTATED -- Cruz Bustamante, (or) Tom McClintock]?

	Bustamante	McClintock	NEITHER (vol.)	OTHER (vol.)	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
Registered Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	42	49	6	*	3
Probable Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	37	56	5	*	2
(vol.) Volunteered response
* Less than 0.5%

On the other hand, the poll shows Schwarzenegger would also beat Bustamante in a two-man race among probable voters -- but by a slightly larger 22-point margin (58% to 36%).

If the choice were between Cruz Bustamante, the Democrat and Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for [ROTATED: Cruz Bustamante, (or) Arnold Schwarzenegger]?

	Bustamante	Schwarzen- egger	NEITHER (vol.)	OTHER (vol.)	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
Registered Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	39	52	6	*	3
Probable Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	36	58	4	*	2
(vol.) Volunteered response
* Less than 0.5%

If Schwarzenegger were to drop out of the race (and all other candidates remained), McClintock would pick up 64% of the actor's vote, while Bustamante would get just 6% of that vote. The net result would be a 48% to 31% lead by McClintock over Bustamante.

On the other hand, if McClintock were to drop out of the race, Schwarzenegger would get a majority of the probable vote. Just over 62% of the state senator's support would go to Schwarzenegger, while only 8% would go to Bustamante -- leaving the actor with a 56% to 29% lead over Bustamante.

Thus, while either Republican could probably win if the other dropped out, GOP leaders are pressuring McClintock -- the slightly weaker candidate according to this poll -- to quit the race in order to ensure a Republican victory. The fact that he would be such a strong candidate without Schwarzenegger may help to explain why McClintock has been so reluctant to accede to the GOP leaders' wishes.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected sample of 1,007 Californians, aged 18 years and older, conducted Sept. 25-27, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

For results based on the sample of 787 Californians who are registered to vote, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Probable voters include a subsample of 581 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the October 7, 2003 California recall election, based on their level of interest and intention to vote. This definition assumes a turnout of 51% in the recall election. For results based on the sample of probable voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

This poll was conducted in both English and Spanish -- 73 out of 1,007 interviews were conducted in Spanish.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[Ol' Sparky]

Simon isn't half the politician or debater McClintock is and McClintock was the leading vote getter in the state for the Republicans in the last election.

This is a wasted opportunity to solve the problems in California. And, mindless conservatives wonder why it's so tough to advance an agenda legislatively. Maybe because we keep compromising and voting for people that aren't conservative.

[Texasforever]

Well I have read the poll and it appears to make sense untill I ask myself one question. If the poll is accurate, why does it not show both republicans beating the democrat right now?

[Tempest]

"As you mentioned before, this was a race Tom could have won since the public was squarely focused on his issues. Social issues are taking a backburner this time out."

I don't think that's what this poll shows. It appears to me that the public is firmly against what Gray Davis and Cruz Bustamante stands for.

In order for your theory to hold water Tom would have to be the sole victor in the poll, which he isn't.

[ambrose]

You and I both knew that in a two person race, McClintock in the present climate would probably defeat Bustamante. But that is not to be. One of the really fun things about California is just how volatile it is, particularly in state elections. They are few anchors that weigh down voting blocks as per most other states. That is because in California, neither of the national parties resonate very well.

True.. many of the East Coast pundits have no conception of the whacky nature of California politics. This is a state that elects John Tunney in one election, and then dumps him and replaces him with a conservative narcoleptic in the next... that elects a right-wing pornographer (Mike Curb) in the same year that it re-elects Jerry Brown... That nearly elects a Bruce Herschensohn in a heavily Democratic year...

So, is there are scenario left under which Tom could win? Perhaps a last minute mother of all smear attack on Arnold which sinks him... but then the public sees the smear coming from Davis and it therefore backfires. In disgust, the public turns to McClintock. I think this is unlikely. Arnold, Davis, and the news media are framing this as a two man race now. If Arnold goes down, so does the recall.

What a pickle.

[BlueNgold]

BTT

[Hoverbug]

Maybe it's because "I won't raise taxes" Arnie wants to raise taxes on the Indians. An increase with no tax cuts elsewhere that would make it "revenue neutral" to the State.

That's a tax increase.

I'm still looking for the "terrorist attack, natural disaster or other emergency" that's causing him to call for a tax increase before the election has even taken place.

Hb

[Tempest]

Oh gee. You got all that from my post??!?!?

You're right 2.8 million dollars from a single special interest money is no big deal. . . Nothing to see here folks! It's bissiness as usual. . .

[ambrose]

If Schwarzenegger were to drop out of the race (and all other candidates remained), McClintock would pick up 64% of the actor's vote, while Bustamante would get just 6% of that vote.

Why didn't you tell us that you were polled by Gallup?

[Tempest]

I think your grasping at straws. I hardly consider negotiating compensation from tribal casinos for their continued operation in the state to be a tax increase.

[Torie]

Perspicacious am I not? I just cut to the bone. And unlike Bustamante, I never aspired to be a butcher. It just comes naturally.

[Texasforever]

This is a wasted opportunity to solve the problems in California. And, mindless conservatives wonder why it's so tough to advance an agenda legislatively. Maybe because we keep compromising and voting for people that aren't conservative.

I see so the great conservative hope..Simon..was not what the "conservatives" sold him as but McClintock is. Is that about it?

[Hoverbug]

Revenue coming from private pockets to the government is a tax no matter what name it goes by.

Arnold doesn't support amnesty for illegals either. He just says arrest and deportation is not an option, they should be given visas and allowed to stay legally, and be put on the road to citizenship.

If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck ...

If Clinton pulled this, you'd be apoplectic.

Hb

[Torie]

Is there any way I can get you to stop equating Simon to McClintock?

[Tempest]

"Perspicacious am I not?"

Nahhhh, I'd say more self-aggrandizing. Sort of like Tom.

[Texasforever]

Is there any way I can get you to stop equating Simon to McClintock?

Yep. When he is sworn in.

[CheneyChick]

Come on, ambrose. I'm waiting for the poll that is tweaked to the point that shows Arianna can win. You're lagging. Where is it?

[Torie]

Ya, that is another take. But I think it applies more to me than Tom, don't you?

[Warhead W-88]

Okay. McClintock may be electable after all. That is surprising to me. I'm man enough to admit when I've been wrong, and I guess I have been. However, all of you McClintock supporters should bear something in mind: The Democrats have been doing nothing but praising McClintock, in order to push more voters to him, and thus away from Schwarzenegger. Thus, there has been almost ZERO attacks on McClintock on the public airwaves. Sh-t, Art Torres sounds like he wants to volunteer for McClintock's campaign. McClintock is more impressive than I'd ever imagined. He came across great in the debate. Very reasonable, very informed, and very conservative, too. But try to keep in mind that no one in this race is attacking McClintock, or highlighting the views that would tend to lose him votes in California. Arnold's not doing it because he doesn't want to piss off McClintock or his voters, and doesn't want to look too un-conservative. The Democrats aren't doing it because every vote for McClintock is NOT a vote for Arnold, and so the Democrats are campaigning harder for McClintock than his most passionate supporters on FR. So bear that in mind, before everyone gets carried away.

[ambrose]

I'm waiting for the poll that is tweaked

So now this Gallup poll has been "tweaked" and is bogus? Didn't seem to hear that sentiment the other day when the only numbers being discussed were Arnold's 15% lead over BustaBoogeyman and the recall's "yes" vote leading by 28%...

[Tempest]

I'm sorry but the last time I checked the casinos are not private pockets but a corporate entity just like other businesses. Except they don't produce anything and are just a form of legalized embezzlement.

Try no to grasp at too many straws at once it looks like you reaching too much.