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Gallup: Either McClintock or Schwarzenegger Likely Winner in California if Other Dropped Out
Gallup ^ | 9-30-03 | Gallup

Posted on 09/29/2003 9:41:43 PM PDT by ambrose

T H E   G A L L U P   O R G A N I Z A T I O N

SOURCE: http://www.gallup.com
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POLL ANALYSES

Either McClintock or Schwarzenegger Likely Winner in California if Other Dropped Out
Most of vote for one candidate would go to other

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With Arnold Schwarzenegger the Republican front-runner in the California gubernatorial contest, many GOP officials have pressured California State Sen. Tom McClintock to drop out of the race, fearing he will divide the Republican vote and allow Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante to win. A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted over the past weekend, shows that McClintock does indeed draw support away from Schwarzenegger, though not enough to deprive the actor of the lead. But the poll also shows that if Schwarzenegger were not in the race, McClintock would likely be in first place by a substantial margin rather than behind Bustamante.

The poll of California voters, conducted Sept. 25-27, finds McClintock with just 16% of the vote among registered voters, and 18% among probable voters. That puts him in third place behind Bustamante and Schwarzenegger.

Next, I'm going to read a list of some of the 135 candidates running to replace Gray Davis as governor if he is removed from office. After I read these names, please tell me which of these candidates you would be most likely to vote for if the election were held today, if you would vote for someone else, or if you would not vote for anyone for governor. [ROTATED: Actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican; Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante, a Democrat; Columnist AriannaHuffington, an independent; State Senator Tom McClintock, a Republican; and Financial Advisor, Peter Miguel Camejo of the Green Party] (If someone else, who do you plan to vote for?)

Schwarz-
enegger


Busta-
mante


McClin-
tock


Camejo


Huff-
ington

OTHER
(vol.)

None/
No opinion

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Registered Voters

2003 Sep 25-27

34

28

16

4

2

2

14

Probable Voters

2003 Sep 25-27

40

25

18

5

2

1

9

The third-place showing by McClintock underestimates his overall strength. Both Republican candidates enjoy a favorable rating among more than 6 in 10 probable voters, while fewer than 4 in 10 probable voters give Bustamante a favorable rating. Of the three leading contenders, McClintock has the lowest negatives. Only 20% of probable voters have an unfavorable view of McClintock, compared with a 30% unfavorable rating for Schwarzenegger and 54% unfavorable for Bustamante.

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [NAME], or have you never heard of this person?

Arnold Schwarzenegger

Favorable

Unfavorable

Never heard of

No opinion

%

%

%

%

Registered Voters

2003 Sep 25-27

59

31

1

9

Probable Voters

2003 Sep 25-27

63

30

*

7

* Less than 0.5%

Tom McClintock

Favorable

Unfavorable

Never heard of

No opinion

%

%

%

%

Registered Voters

2003 Sep 25-27

58

18

7

17

Probable Voters

2003 Sep 25-27

62

20

4

14

Cruz Bustamante

Favorable

Unfavorable

Never heard of

No opinion

%

%

%

%

Registered Voters

2003 Sep 25-27

44

46

3

7

Probable Voters

2003 Sep 25-27

37

54

3

6

Furthermore, when McClintock is pitted against just Bustamante, among probable voters the Republican state senator beats the Democratic candidate handily -- by 19 percentage points.

If the choice were between Cruz Bustamante, the Democrat and Tom McClintock, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for [ROTATED -- Cruz Bustamante, (or) Tom McClintock]?


Bustamante


McClintock

NEITHER (vol.)

OTHER
(vol.)

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

Registered Voters

2003 Sep 25-27

42

49

6

*

3

Probable Voters

2003 Sep 25-27

37

56

5

*

2

(vol.) Volunteered response

* Less than 0.5%

On the other hand, the poll shows Schwarzenegger would also beat Bustamante in a two-man race among probable voters -- but by a slightly larger 22-point margin (58% to 36%).

If the choice were between Cruz Bustamante, the Democrat and Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for [ROTATED: Cruz Bustamante, (or) Arnold Schwarzenegger]?


Bustamante


Schwarzen-
egger

NEITHER (vol.)

OTHER
(vol.)

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

Registered Voters

2003 Sep 25-27

39

52

6

*

3

Probable Voters

2003 Sep 25-27

36

58

4

*

2

(vol.) Volunteered response

* Less than 0.5%

If Schwarzenegger were to drop out of the race (and all other candidates remained), McClintock would pick up 64% of the actor's vote, while Bustamante would get just 6% of that vote. The net result would be a 48% to 31% lead by McClintock over Bustamante.

On the other hand, if McClintock were to drop out of the race, Schwarzenegger would get a majority of the probable vote. Just over 62% of the state senator's support would go to Schwarzenegger, while only 8% would go to Bustamante -- leaving the actor with a 56% to 29% lead over Bustamante.

Thus, while either Republican could probably win if the other dropped out, GOP leaders are pressuring McClintock -- the slightly weaker candidate according to this poll -- to quit the race in order to ensure a Republican victory. The fact that he would be such a strong candidate without Schwarzenegger may help to explain why McClintock has been so reluctant to accede to the GOP leaders' wishes.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected sample of 1,007 Californians, aged 18 years and older, conducted Sept. 25-27, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

For results based on the sample of 787 Californians who are registered to vote, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Probable voters include a subsample of 581 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the October 7, 2003 California recall election, based on their level of interest and intention to vote. This definition assumes a turnout of 51% in the recall election. For results based on the sample of probable voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

This poll was conducted in both English and Spanish -- 73 out of 1,007 interviews were conducted in Spanish.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.



TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: California
KEYWORDS: bustamante; gallup; graydavis; mcclintock; polls; recall; schwarzenegger; tomcanwin
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To: Tempest
My understanding is that the indian gaming money was an "independent expenditure", and that McClintock has no say in accepting or refusing it.
41 posted on 09/29/2003 10:07:58 PM PDT by WSGilcrest (No one gets to see the Wizard! Not nobody! Not no how!")
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To: Kevin Curry
Kevin, didn't you copy this response from another thread you were on a few minutes ago? Come on, now, we know you're more original than that.
42 posted on 09/29/2003 10:09:15 PM PDT by Slip18
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To: WSGilcrest
...McClintock has no say in accepting or refusing it.

Typical.

43 posted on 09/29/2003 10:09:16 PM PDT by PRND21
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To: WSGilcrest
LOL!! Right. The Indian gaming moeny is a completely altuistic gift given to Tom out of the goodness of there hearts. . . 2.8 million dollar hearts!
44 posted on 09/29/2003 10:10:11 PM PDT by Tempest
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To: Tempest
You seem a bit skeptical about motives here. Are you a cynic?
45 posted on 09/29/2003 10:10:55 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Torie
It'd be interesting to see how McSlots would do after a week of the Demorats turning on him instead of Arnold. That's it! Arnold is planning to drop out just before the election to let Tom win! < /Tomikazee >
46 posted on 09/29/2003 10:10:57 PM PDT by TheDon (Tick, tock, tick, tock....the sound of the clock ticking off the time until Tom drops out.)
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To: WSGilcrest
OMG .. do you really think Heschenson (sp?) would get on the air and tout Tom WITHOUT Tom's knowing about it and OKing it beforehand? Please tell me you are not that naive.
47 posted on 09/29/2003 10:11:43 PM PDT by BlueNgold (Feed the Tree .....)
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To: TheDon
I sure you have the game plan all down. And I'm going to be the next president of the United States in 2008.
48 posted on 09/29/2003 10:12:56 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Outraged
So that was a real cry me a river story.

I tried to get you the smallest violin I could for you to play his swan song.

49 posted on 09/29/2003 10:13:19 PM PDT by Tempest
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To: Torie
I don't know if you can call it cynical. Especially when 2.8 million dollars of special interest moeny is involved.

I'm leaning more towards glaringly obvious.
50 posted on 09/29/2003 10:15:01 PM PDT by Tempest
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To: Torie
And I'm going to be the next president of the United States in 2008.

Here comes those other Mapplethorpe pics. ;)

51 posted on 09/29/2003 10:15:34 PM PDT by PRND21
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To: ambrose
OK, hate to kill the fun ... but the flaw in the poll, and a fatal flaw at that, is that they do not approach the poll with a 2 part question assuming only 2 candidates. We do not know what would happen with Q1 (The recall) in a 2 man race. Analyzing the relative position of candidates in that scenario is deceiving. Other polls have shown that without A.S. the recall FAILS and the resultant McC plurality is MOOT.
52 posted on 09/29/2003 10:15:41 PM PDT by BlueNgold (Feed the Tree .....)
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To: Torie; daviddennis
The Arnold camp is in a bit of a pickle with this poll...

Their entire argument has been based on the thesis "McClintock can't win" ... A thesis based on polling data... well, here's a well respected poll which refutes this notion.

As you mentioned before, this was a race Tom could have won since the public was squarely focused on his issues. Social issues are taking a backburner this time out.

However, it is likely too late to change things at this point. There are already a million absentees in the can, cast when Tom was polling at between 10 and 15 percent. The amount of votes he'd need to capture on election day to offset the absentees and pull this out would astronomical.
53 posted on 09/29/2003 10:16:48 PM PDT by ambrose
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To: ambrose
What a blown opportunity. California COULD have a conservative governor implementing the right ideas and rebuilding the Republican party if not for Schwartenkennedy and his mindless followers like Sean Hannity.
54 posted on 09/29/2003 10:16:56 PM PDT by Ol' Sparky
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To: Tempest
OK so you're a Baysian that probably hates the environment and drives an SUV, and eats meat, and thinks pugilism is reasonable modality for conflict resolution.
55 posted on 09/29/2003 10:17:36 PM PDT by Torie
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To: ambrose; Sabertooth
McClintock will not be the next govenor unless Davis really does have a mega late hit on Arnold. If he does, and uses it, it is because he wants McClintock to be the next governor, which I doubt.
56 posted on 09/29/2003 10:20:36 PM PDT by Torie
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To: PRND21
I think I will leave that one alone. :)
57 posted on 09/29/2003 10:21:32 PM PDT by Torie
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To: ambrose
>>>"But McClintock can't win!"

Pure sophistry.

But the poll also shows that if Schwarzenegger were not in the race, McClintock would likely be in first place by a substantial margin rather than behind Bustamante.

I thought Arnie had hoodwinked the people. Maybe, the people have hoodwinked themselves, or maybe they just don't like conservatives in California. If thats the case, then how did McClintock get more votes last Nov2002, then anyother GOP candidate in the nation? The big lie said, McClintock can't win. The fact is, McClintock can win. The people have to wake up and get with the program.

T-minus, 7 days and counting.

58 posted on 09/29/2003 10:22:47 PM PDT by Reagan Man (The few, the proud, the conservatives.)
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To: BlueNgold
Other polls have shown that without A.S. the recall FAILS and the resultant McC plurality is MOOT.

Assuming that is all true, those polls are l'histoire. Davis is OUT, period, absent a HUGE surprise.

59 posted on 09/29/2003 10:23:04 PM PDT by Torie
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To: ambrose
Even going by the hypothetical that a CNN poll is accurate, Tom's numbers only reflect his support WITHOUT anyone campaigning against him. Not only haven't the Democrats attacked him, the liberal papers and liberal pundits have all been singing his glorious praises.

Where would his numbers be if Arnold dropped out and Davis turned his guns on Tom...and all the liberal newspapers and comentators aimed their guns at Tom.... and Bill and Hillary Clinton were able to focus their attack on him... etc...

These numbers are meaningless to judge whether Tom could have ever gained significant support without Arnold taking all the heat up until now.


60 posted on 09/29/2003 10:23:17 PM PDT by Tamzee ("Big government sounds too much like sluggish socialism."......Arnold Schwarzenegger)
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