Posted on 09/29/2003 3:11:10 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
School revenue off by millions
Student enrollment in the Los Angeles Unified is lower than anticipated for the first time in a decade -- a drop that could mean a loss up to $47 million in projected state funding, according to new estimates.
Officials had predicted the district's student population would swell by 9,800 students this fall to a record 756,600.
But unofficial counts show enrollment is lower than projected by 2,000 to 10,000 students and, as a result, the district's anticipated revenue may drop by $9.3 million to $46.9 million, based on $4,690 in per-pupil funding from the state.
Lower enrollment has major implications for the district as it embarks on the largest school construction program in the nation. Many newly hired teachers are also waiting to be placed.
"I am concerned about this whole concept of diminishing enrollment," school board member Marlene Canter said. "We have to look ahead. If there is going to be diminishing enrollment, what is going to be the impact? How can we make the best of facilities?"
A sluggish economy and soaring housing prices have been driving many families from the Los Angeles area and keeping others with young children from moving in, officials say. Enrollment began declining a few years ago in neighboring districts, including Glendale and Burbank.
Dale Braun, director of school management services for the LAUSD, noted there was a similar experience during the recession in the early '90s, but enrollment bounced back when the economy improved.
Officials are trying to determine the specific neighborhoods where enrollment is on the decline and whether it appears to be a long-term trend.
"I have a tremendous challenge on the budget," said Superintendent Roy Romer, who believes enrollment is 2,000 to 5,000 students below projections and the loss of anticipated revenue is between $10 million and $20 million. "It's going to make it harder. I already have a big problem. I just have a little bigger problem."
Romer vowed to honor contracts signed with new teachers. He downplayed the situation as "an adjustment" and not a crisis.
Lower-than-expected enrollment has consequences -- both short-term and long-term.
Teachers are assigned to schools for the fall on the basis of enrollment projections. If enrollment falls below anticipated levels, teachers are transferred, and students are reassigned -- often weeks after the beginning of the semester.
"It doesn't help the kids, especially kids who get a new teacher. They have gotten to know teacher A; now they are in teacher B's class," said John Perez, president of United Teachers Los Angeles.
In the long term, enrollment changes could wreak havoc in the district's school-construction program. LAUSD officials have a goal of adding 200,000 seats over the next decade in order to return schools to traditional calendars and students to their neighborhood schools.
Rena Perez, director of master planning and demographics, said projections of a leveling-off in enrollment were taken into account in the school-construction program.
And regardless of whether there is growth, she said, more schools are needed now to reduce severe crowding at year-round campuses.
"We are taking into account the natural evolution in population, which includes leveling in school-age children sometime in the near future, absent any changes in the trend," she said.
The district's long-term enrollment projections, in fact, show growth tapering off. Enrollment that grew by more than 2 percent a year in the late 1990s is projected to tick up by just 0.15 percent by the 2006-07 school year.
At Monroe High School in North Hills, Principal Gregory Vallone had originally projected his school would reach capacity with 5,040 students this fall; instead, his enrollment is around 4,850. In 12 years, this is the first time his enrollment forecast has been off.
"In all the years, I have never seen that happen. We are usually right on," said Vallone. "Everyone I've talked to is down. I am finding it in other school districts."
Glendale Unified's enrollment started declining three years ago, dropping from 30,200 to the current 29,500.
"Let's face it: There is hardly a place a young family can go now within a reasonable distance of Los Angeles that is affordable," said Glendale Unified spokesman Vic Pallos.
In the Burbank Unified district, where there also has been a decrease, officials are promoting interdistrict transfers for students whose parents work in the city as a way to boost enrollment.
Hank Jannace, Burbank Unified's director of pupil services, echoed Pallos' sentiments about the housing market as the driving force behind the enrollment drop.
Jannace said homes have become too expensive for purchase by couples with school-age children. "We are not attracting -- typically -- those couples. That's the biggest reason."
Jack Kyser, chief economist for the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp., said he is not surprised by the emerging trend of declining enrollment. Some counties in Northern California, hard hit by the dot.com bust, have already reported population loss, he said.
"It tends to go in waves. We have been through a couple of waves already," said Kyser, referring to the boom-bust cycles that recur throughout California history.
During the post-World War II population boom, there was a school construction craze like the one now under way, but then enrollment tailed off, leaving many surplus properties. But the drop was followed by another boom, requiring new schools to be built.
"Anybody who is doing anything in California has to be very alert to demographics," Kyser said. "You have to step back: This is what is happening now, and what might happen in five and 10 years? You don't want to put in a lot of bond money and have schools sitting empty."
LAUSD is a business, no less than Chrysler. It's going to be interesting following the school district's proposed solutions in the next few years.
Same here in Metro NYC. I have a colleague who could not find a decent house under $400K in any of the surrounding counties and who now commutes 60 miles from Dutchess County upstate.
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