Poll Vault: California Voters Flocking to the Governator (Arnold over Busta by 15%)

New York Post ^ | September 29, 2003 | David K. Li

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LOS ANGELES - Arnold Schwarzenegger has muscled his way to a commanding lead in California's recall campaign, according to the results of a stunning poll released yesterday. A Gallup survey commission by CNN and USA Today showed Golden State voters poised to pink-slip Gov. Gray Davis and install political newcomer Schwarzenegger as their leader.

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Not when it takes 50% to win statewide in most elections. 18% is a third of what the average Republican needs to win in California. That ain't no "functional equivalent of 0%."

Thanks for making my point for me. That 18% only has value if you’re willing to bring it to the bargaining table.

If you want to go it alone, 18% is exactly as useful as 0%.

Tell me, what is McClintock going to do with his 18%? He’s going to sit on the sideline and boo, irrelevant and ignored. That’s what he’s going to do with 18%.

[b9]

Fasten your seatbelts, hold onto your hats...
It's fear time and smear time from cold democRATs...
They'll shake us and quake us with rumors and lies,
Hoping to make us despise our own guys.

So man the torpedos, deflect all their fire...
They can only incite, they can never inspire.

[montag813]

This poll could still be a ploy to encourage McClintock supporters NOT to vote for Arnold, thereby increasing Bustamante's chances of winning.

AGREE 100% DO NOT TRUST THIS POLL!!!

Our Saturday tracking polls show a MUCH closer race, with Arnold up by a mere 3-5% and McClintock at 12%--still the spolier. Without McClintock Arnold wins by 15%.

[deport]

The conservative wing of the party backed McClintock. Unfortunately, the conservative wing of the Republican Party apparently consists of about 18% of the population in California.

I don't know what the conservative population of CA is but a couple of polls that have published their internals show McClintock getting less than 30% of the Conservative CA vote...... That doesn't bode well for someone that is supposed to be the conservative leader......

[Tamzee]

The Republican party is largely, but not totally, composed of three overlapping but distinct groups of conservatives:

Jeffersonian Conservatives - those who follow Jefferson's dictum that "that government is best which governs least"

Economic Conservatives - those who believe in fiscal accountability, free-market type economics, etc.

Moral/Social Conservatives - those who believe that morals are important to have a stable society: family is important, no homosexual marriage, etc. etc.

Obviously, these overlap, but it is clear that a person can emphasize one or two, and even largely disagree with one while strenuously supporting one or two.

That is why, for instance, there is such an argument over Arnold--he is an economic conservative, but not much of a moral/social conservative. He, is, however, within the Republican party because of that economic conservative stance.

#### Thank you so much for this excellent analysis... it clarifies the entire debate.

[Defiant]

"It's a joke," Davis strategist Peter Ragone said of the poll. "I'm surprised they're even publishing it. There hasn't been a public poll or private poll taken by a Republican or Democrat in the last three months with any slight resemblance to these wacky results."

Except perhaps their internal polls, which are not skewed intentionally like the Field Poll and the LA Times poll.

[DoctorZIn]

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[BibChr]

Ooh. That's TOO good.

)c8

[BibChr]

Bingo.

How about zero personal skills?

Don't know, just guessing.

[BibChr]

Direct hit.

[budwiesest]

Remember the Democrats will do anything to win an election. When the Clinton's have a stake in this watch out.

Very true and scary at the same time, as we can control some things, but vote fraud trumps them all.

Efforts to put a better face on Davis and to derail the recall itself indicates that the Clintons would prefer to take down the easier of the two: the recall vs. a popular candidate. That's where the Achilles is. Of couse, character assasination comes naturally to them, so expect to see plenty of this too.

[carton253]

But, what is a republican anyway? A republican is not exclusively conservative. To say that only conservatives are republicans is a misnomer.

Both Tom and Arnold are republicans. Tom is a conservative... Arnold is a conservative is fiscal matters and more progressive/moderate in social issues.

[Tempest]

Sounds like Arnold has MOMENTUM. And well we all know how important MOMENTUM is to some people around here. . .

By the way were there any candidates whose poll number sort of seemed to just flounder this time . . .

[Sabertooth]

It amazes me how some conservatives seem to think they can say all sorts of things about someone running for political office, and then they get all upset when they realize their attacks on him make him unwilling to give them the time of day.

What makes them think that they can kick Arnold in the teeth and have him then trust them when they tell him they want to work with him? Delusion? Arrogance?

Flip side, California style...

It amazes me how some conservatives Republican party leaders seem to think they can say all sorts of things about someone running for political office their conservative constituents, and then they get all upset when they realize their attacks on him those Republican voters make him those Republican voters unwilling to give them Republican party leaders' handpicked candidates the time of day.

What makes them Republican party leaders think that they can kick Arnold their conservative Republican constituents in the teeth and have him those voters then trust them those very Republican party leaders when they those leaders tell him the voters they take for granted they want to work with him their conservative constituents, for howm they show no respect? Delusion? Arrogance?

Loyalty is a two way street, and is not cultivated much by the "shut up and vote attitude" of our Republican leaders. This power struggle has been going on for a long time in California, and this recall election is all just the latest manifiestation.

Schwarzenegger ran to the center-Left before shoring up his base on the right.

That kick in our teeth was a mistake that Arnold's Rove-approved team should have advised him to avoid.

In a recall and replacement election, where there is no primary and no party nominee, Schwarzenegger should have taken a more conciliatory and unifying approach than cutting Leftward, waving polls, ducking debates, and expecting the rank and file all to quietly follow.

Now some are miffed that their bad strategy has encountered the foreseeable consequences.

If Schwarzenegger wants to be party leader in this state, and if he wants unity in the Republican party, then he needs to show some leadership and start unifying.

McClintock's solid 15% to 18% are evidence that Arnold isn't getting that part of the job done.

[Socratic]

Fasten your seatbelts... (etc.)

Nice. Thanks for your little Doodle on my Noodle.

[Sabertooth]

That 18% only has value if you’re willing to bring it to the bargaining table.

If you want to go it alone, 18% is exactly as useful as 0%.

Tell me, what is McClintock going to do with his 18%?

Tell me, what are future Republican candidates statewide going to do without it?

Those McClintock votes will be on the table in election after election, and the GOP will have to accept that they can't be taken for granted. That's the bigger picture.

[Nonstatist]

it's his own positions on the issues that are the cause of his inability to garner the votes sufficient for victory.

Well, yea, but that cuts both ways. Best is better than Better and Better is better than Horrendous. Is Better that much inferior to Best, and insignificantly better than Horrendous??

One might have to wait until Governor Bustamygutne has been in office a couple months to find out for sure (recent "polling" aside). Thats a risk many people would prefer not to take.

[hchutch]

"Loyalty is a two way street, and is not cultivated much by the 'shut up and vote attitude' of our Republican leaders."

Yeah, well, you get your chance on October 7 to see if they need you more than you need them.

[Sabertooth]

You guys gonna come up with a 15 percent candidate in election after election?

Won't be necessary, and wouldn't be productive. One election should do it for a while.

Like it or not, the primary political axiom is that electoral success is not achieved when the minority of a party dictates how the majority shall direct its support.

Like it or not, there are plenty of political axioms, and one is that if Republican candidates in California don't consolidate their conservative base, they don't win a majority of the electorate.... or many elections.

[dead]

Of course the Republican Party wants those votes. I'm talking about McClintock's future, or lack thereof.

He did the conservative cause in California considerable harm by his stubbornness. He has emboldened the moderate forces in the party, merely to satiate his own ego.

If he had stepped aside when the GOP believed they desperately needed his constituency, he would have been perceived as a king maker with considerable clout. From there, he could have run a campaign with the entire GOP behind him in the future.

Instead, he acted bullheaded. His political career is dead in the water, and that is not good for conservatives. It was a stupid stupid play on his part.