Poll Vault: California Voters Flocking to the Governator (Arnold over Busta by 15%)

New York Post ^ | September 29, 2003 | David K. Li

[dead]

LOS ANGELES - Arnold Schwarzenegger has muscled his way to a commanding lead in California's recall campaign, according to the results of a stunning poll released yesterday. A Gallup survey commission by CNN and USA Today showed Golden State voters poised to pink-slip Gov. Gray Davis and install political newcomer Schwarzenegger as their leader.

[Tacis]

I understand that Davis and his friends, relatives and political colleagues have rented every Penske truck in northern California and are backing them up, one by one, to the State Treasury building to pick up loads.

We talk about the RINOs and that certain Republicans aren't, well, Republican enough all the time. It is silly. Arnold's problems begin the day he takes over. The legislature is still a dem sewer only now, they have someone to blame ALL the troubles on. McClintock, who would be a better governor, no doubt, will be very important in the legislature watching Arnold's back and guiding legislation. Then, next year, he can run for Senate, with a Republican as governor.

[old school]

"It can also be said that McClintock had a chance to enhance his standing in the party..."

It can also be said that "the party" had a chance to enhance its standing in the eyes of conservatives, by backing the true conservative in this race! But, what is a republican anyway?

[hchutch]

The fact is, there are a growing number of people who cannot abide the Left at all. They're finally taking their stand, and doing so on their terms.

[dead]

The conservative wing of the party backed McClintock. Unfortunately, the conservative wing of the Republican Party apparently consists of about 18% of the population in California.

The go-it-alone attitude is nice, but 18% is as good as 0% in a two party system. You can either compromise and form alliances with people who partially agree with you, or you can sit on the sidelines and boo.

[Chancellor Palpatine]

You're right - and there has been a historic confluence of many interests which the scorched earthers have deemed unimportant. I suspect Arnold will recognize that set, and will work with you as a pleasant surprise.

[old school]

"The go-it-alone attitude is nice, but 18% is as good as 0% in a two party system. You can either compromise and form alliances with people who partially agree with you, or you can sit on the sidelines and boo."

Sort of begs the question doesn't it? What is a republican? Is it distinct from a democrat, if so how distinct?

[RoseofTexas]

I hate to say this, but I think AUHnold HUGH :) vault was a results of appearing on the Orpah show!

[Scott from the Left Coast]

because it represents all those previously uncommitteds coming home to roost in the moderate wing of the GOP

And how on earth, in a west coast state, could anyone have ever expected they'd go anywhere else? These are Independents and the "unsure" Democrats (near former Democrats). And according to the McClintock supporters, they are supposed to jump from the middle to one extreme end of the spectrum all at once? This is where the McClintock faction shows their great naivete -- they have no sense whatsoever of human psychology. People simply do not act that way.

People moving along the spectrum, voting differently than they have in the past, move slowly and cautiously...and when they begin that movement they continue to hold on to much of their distaste for the side they are moving toward. You need to make them feel comfortable -- and you need to not burn them (i.e. if Arnold is elected in the middle on social issues, he's going to have to govern from the middle on social issues). Then, slowly, over time they gain some acceptance of your doctrine and philosophy. Some of them will even make the long traverse over to the hard conservative side, but most will remain comfortably in the middle, middle-right. But they will not any longer be Democrat voters, and if they still consider themselves Independents, they will be real ticket-splitters or even predominately Republican Independents -- instead of solid Democrat-voting Independents, as most Independents in California have been.

This is a major gain, which would not ever have been possible with a doctrinaire conservative like McClintock as the Republican leader.

[BibChr]

The composition of his team of partners and advisors encourages me in that direction, and the fact he's tapped Hoover and Jervis to advise him on taxes.

Another nasty consequence would be if he knew A HUNDREDTH of the nasty, slanderous, genuinely hateful things that my ideological allies here have written about him, and the acid malice with which they greet even his PRO-REAGAN, PRO-GOP, PRO-CONSERVATIVE statements...

...why would he ever try to work with them?

Dan

[Sabertooth]

You realize that if these poll numbers bear out (and I think they will), this portends really badly for the McClintock wing of the party - because it represents all those previously uncommitteds coming home to roost in the moderate wing of the GOP.

Ya think?

Let's look at those numbers again...

Schwarzenegger 40%
Bustamante 25%
McClintock 18%

If those numbers bear out (and you think they will), Schwarzenegger wins by a plurality of 40%.

How often do you think the GOP can win statewide in California with 40% of the vote?

At this point, the GOP now is coming to realize that it can win without the hystericals, and you're going to find yourselves completely marginalized when the whole exercise was unnecessary.

I think many in the GOP are better at math than that.

[dead]

Sort of begs the question doesn't it? What is a republican?

A member of the Republican Party is generally considered a Republican.

Is it distinct from a democrat, if so how distinct?

Generally, Republicans are people who believe in some or all of the following - fiscal accountability, free-market economics, social responsibility, respect for life, low taxes, smaller government, gun rights, and integrity in government.

Arnold apparently buys into the economic ideas of the agenda, though not the social aspects.

McClintock buys into the whole agenda, but only gathers 18% support, which is the functional equivalent of 0% support. It would have been wise for him to work with the moderate wing of his party, so he could turn to them for support in the future. Arnold as governor and McClintock as Senator would have been a favorable outcome for all Republicans. But McClintock chose to go down with his governor-ship instead.

That was a very poor decision that did much harm to the conservatives in California. They are now far more marginalized than ever.

[Nonstatist]

Voting for McClintock has always been guilt-free, but thanks for caring.

For you, perhaps, but not everybody is so sanguine about having a Governor Bustamente. Good luck with that.

[Tamzee]

They are saying, without words, "We can't work with anybody, we can't work as a team, if we can't have ONE HUNDRED PER CENT of our way, we'll burn the house down!"

I don't remember who said it, but one Freeper likened it this way.... the house is burning down but the Tom supporters refuse to put out the fire with impure water ;-)

[Prodigal Son]

Well, maybe the Lefties are learning that their ugly smear tactics have repurcussions.

[Sabertooth]

McClintock buys into the whole agenda, but only gathers 18% support, which is the functional equivalent of 0% support.

Not when it takes 50% to win statewide in most elections.

18% is a third of what the average Republican needs to win in California.

That ain't no "functional equivalent of 0%."

[Blake#1]

I am a McClintock supporter. Not a voter, as the election has not occured yet. If the election were to be held today I would vote for "Ahhnold". A big Republican victory will help my future. If Tom were ahead in the polls, I would vote for Tom.

[hchutch]

It amazes me how some conservatives seem to think they can say all sorts of things about someone running for political office, and then they get all upset when they realize their attacks on him make him unwilling to give them the time of day.

What makes them think that they can kick Arnold in the teeth and have him then trust them when they tell him they want to work with him? Delusion? Arrogance?

[zencat]

I think that's a great call. And while I agree overall more with McClintock's positions, there is MUCH more to being Governor than just policy issues. A Governor must lead and be able to connect with the voters and legislators to get their agenda passed. Having Arnold as Governor will likely boost the GOP on the national level as well.

[Sabertooth]

For you, perhaps, but not everybody is so sanguine about having a Governor Bustamente.

Well, I'm no more sanguine than those who're advising Arnold to stand pat instead of making a good faith effort to get the votes of those of us who are supporting McClintock.

If Arnold's in danger of losing to Bustamante (and the poll on this thread doesn't support that hypothetical), then it's his own positions on the issues that are the cause of his inability to garner the votes sufficient for victory.

Sorta moot, anyway, because at this point it looks like Arnold will win in a plurality of the replacement election, and the Republicans will win a conservopopulist landslide in the recall against Davis.

McClintock's tally will be a cautionary note to future statewide candidates that they need to guard their right flank. Seems many need to relearn the lesson of Richard Nixon, when he lost to Pat Brown in the 1962 CA gubernatorial election.

If the 40-25-18 breakdown between Schwarzenegger, Bustamante, and McClintock is more or less reflected in the Election Day totals, I'd say that's one of the better outcomes possible for the GOP, both statewide and nationally.

[Chancellor Palpatine]

You guys gonna come up with a 15 percent candidate in election after election? How long until your own people bolt if it gets them an entrenched Demo power structure with no hope of getting rid of them?

Like it or not, the primary political axiom is that electoral success is not achieved when the minority of a party dictates how the majority shall direct its support.