California FREEPers: Will a Republican Gov Help Bush Make Your State Competitive?

FREEPers Everywhere! ^ | 9/28/03 | Recovering_Democrat

[Recovering_Democrat]

Drudge is headlining a poll showing a likely Republican victory in California's recall. I don't want to rehash the Arnold/McClintock debate here...my real question, to all thinking FREEPers but especially you California ones, is this:

Will a Republican governor, in your opinion, help the President make the state competitive again, or will it still be a slam dunk Democrat state--like New York? All things being equal, of course.

[Recovering_Democrat]

I'd like to see California be a state in play again; I just wonder if a Republican governor is enough to make it at least up for grabs. Any thoughts?

[rhombus]

I'm from Massachusetts -- we elected Mitt Romney but the legislature is still mostly Dems -- hard for Mitt to really get anything done. It sounds like California could end up that way too.

[heleny]

Governor Pete Wilson (R) could not deliver CA to Bush 41 in 1992.

[Amerigomag]

Only Bush can deliver California to Bush

[goldstategop]

I think the Democrats will still win California next year. The benefit to having a Republican Governor is force them to commit money hold the state, money they can't use elsewhere and that alone will be a huge benefit to the President in his campaign for re-election.

[jmstein7]

Three points:

1) With a GOP Gov in CA, the dems will be at least forced to SPEND MONEY in CA that they would not otherwise have to spend, thus reducing the amount of $ they have to spend elsewhere.

2) A GOP Gov will be able to raise more GOP $ in CA

3) Holding the Governor's chair in CA will prevent a Dem using it to snipe at Bush next year; this denies the Dems a very important national soap box.

[DoctorZIn]

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[Recovering_Democrat]

but was it at least competitive? I don't recall.

[Recovering_Democrat]

no pun intended above. ;-)

[So Cal Rocket]

So long as San Francisco and urban Los Angeles remain in the state of California, it is highly unlikely that Bush will carry the state.

The only scenario I can see where Bush wins California is if:

1. DJIA over 10000
2. Unemployment nationwide drops below 5.5%
3. WMDs are found in Iraq with incontravertable evidence.

[heleny]

was it at least competitive? I don't recall.

No. Remember, November 1992 was 2 years under Pete Wilson, after the 1991 tax hikes that hurt the state severely, to the extent that tax revenues may have decreased or not increased much. Perot had a large influence, but Clinton had the state even if Perot hadn't run, since not all Perot voters were Republican or would have supported Bush.

google html version of the pdf file
A summary analysis of Voting in the 1992 General Election [PDF] by The Field Institute, January 1993.

Party registration
Democrats:   41%
Republicans: 37%
other:       22%

Political ideology
Conservative: 29%
Moderate:     49%
Liberal:      22%


Results (with 54.5% turnout):

President
Clinton/Gore    46%
Bush/Quayle     33%
Perot/Stockdale 21%

Senator (full term)
Boxer        48%
Herschensohn 43%

Senator (short term)
Feinstein    54%
Seymour      38%

[Common Tator]

There is no way that Bush can win California in 2004 with Arnold as Governor.

The media, which is pro democrat in case you haven't noticed, will report the California economy as being twice as bad as it will be next year and it will be bad. They will do that if a Republican is elected governor. The USA has been out of the national recession for nearly a year. But the media reports it as if we were still in a depression. If Gore had won they would be painting our economy as boom times again.

The media and Democrats will spend the next year blaming Arnie and Bush for all of California's economic problems. Arnie will, to cover his butt, just blame Bush for the California problems. He will hope to save his own sorry butt. Can't you just see the headlines... "Republican Schwarzenegger says bad times in California are all Bush's fault."

The Republicans will lose house seats in California in 2004 as a result of a Arnie winning the Governorship and being able to do nothing to make things better. To survive he will need a scape goat... that scape goat will be called Dubya Bush. If Arnie does win, the Democrats will recall him in 2005 so Barbara Boxer can win that recall and be running for reelection in 2006.

If California Republicans don't succeed in committing suicide, it will not be because they failed to try.