Hurricane Juan 11 AM 9/28/03

National Hurricane Center ^

[libtoken]

Sorry for the Hurricane center all-caps formatting. This probably will miss Maine and hit Canada instead, but...

Hurricane JUAN

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000 WTNT35 KNHC 281429 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE JUAN ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SUN SEP 28 2003

...JUAN HEADING FOR NOVA SCOTIA...

RAIN AND WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR NOVA SCOTIA. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE NOVA SCOTIA MARINE AREAS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JUAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...585 KM...SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

JUAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT JUAN IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.

SOME STORM SURGE FLOODING IN EXCESS OF 3 FT...OR 1 METER...MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. JUAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...39.4 N... 64.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 973 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

000 WTNT75 KNHC 281430 SPFAT5 HURRICANE JUAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SUN SEP 28 2003

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF JUAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST WED OCT 1 2003

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

49.7N 63.2W 19 6 X X 25 HALIFAX NS 34 X X X 34 57.0N 61.0W X 15 X X 15 SABLE ISLAND NS 6 X X X 6 BAR HARBOR ME 2 X X X 2 SYDNEY NS 10 1 X X 11 EASTPORT ME 10 X X X 10 EDDY POINT NS 17 X X X 17 ST JOHN NB 21 X X X 21 PTX BASQUES NFLD 8 1 X X 9 MONCTON NB 27 X X X 27 BURGEO NFLD 3 1 X X 4 YARMOUTH NS 21 X X X 21

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH

[Calpernia]

[glock rocks]

[LenS]

That's interesting. It didn't become a hurricane until it was almost past Bermuda and it's been getting stronger the farther north it heads. That seems a bit unusual this late in the year.

[oceanview]

how serious could this be, will it weaken significantly when it gets into the colder water?

[glock rocks]

this is interesting...

[libtoken]

It's certainly looking like a Halifax scarer to me now. It might scare some of my ME relatives, but it seems much less likely now.

And I have been steered to the decaps site!!!

Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 28, 2003

...Juan moving faster toward Nova Scotia...
Rain and wind warnings continue in effect for Nova Scotia.
Hurricane force wind warnings continue in effect for the Nova
Scotia marine areas.

At 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Juan was located near
latitude 41.2 north... longitude 64.1 west or about 240 miles...385
km...south of Halifax Nova Scotia.
Juan is moving toward the north near 23 mph...37 km/hr...and a
continued northward motion with a further increase in forward speed
is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours. On this track...Juan
will be near the south coast of Nova Scotia in a few hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Although some weakening is likely as Juan moves over colder
waters during the next several hours...Juan is still expected to be
of hurricane intensity when it makes landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles... 55 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 230 miles...370 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb...28.73 inches.
Some storm surge flooding in excess of 3 ft...or 1 meter...may occur
along the south coast of Nova Scotia. Juan is expected to make
landfall near astronomical high tide this evening.
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...41.2 N... 64.1 W. Movement
toward...north near 23 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure... 973 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM AST.

Forecaster Pasch
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 28, 2003

The system's appearance on satellite images is about the same as it
was earlier today...with a cloud-filled eye still apparent. Latest
Dvorak classifications suggest no change in strength. Juan is
likely to begin feeling the effect of significantly colder waters
very soon. However...because of the rapid forward motion...there
will will be little time for weakening prior to landfall. Thus the
cyclone is expected to still be of hurricane strength when it
reaches Nova Scotia. The fast forward speed will should limit
rainfall amounts to around 4 inches...100 mm. Since landfall is
expected to be around the time of astronomical high tide...storm
surge flooding could be significant along portions of the south
coast of Nova Scotia.
Wind and rain warnings have been issued for most of Nova Scotia by
the Canadian hurricane center. Additional details can be found at
the following internet address:
Www.Atl.Ec.Gc.CA/weather/hurricane/index_e.Html
Juan continues to accelerate to the north with current motion around
360/20. The forward speed should continue to increase over the
next 12 to 24 hours. The NHC track forecast and reasoning remain
basically unchanged. Juan is expected to continue to be swept
northward by the flow ahead of a large mid-latitude 500 mb trough
over the eastern United States...and in about 36 hours or less
become absorbed by the extratropical cyclone associated with this
trough.
Forecaster Pasch
Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 28/2100z 41.2n 64.1w 85 kt
12hr VT 29/0600z 46.0n 64.1w 70 kt
24hr VT 29/1800z 53.0n 62.5w 45 kt...extratropical
36hr VT 30/0600z...absorbed by extratropical cyclone
Probabilities for guidance in hurricane protection
planning by government and disaster officials

At 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Juan was located near
latitude 41.2 north...longitude 64.1 west

Chances of center of the hurricane passing within 65 nautical miles
of listed locations through 2pm AST Wed Oct 1 2003

Probabilities
Location Now - 2pm Mon 2pm Mon - 2am Tue 2am Tue - 2pm Tue 2pm Tue - 2pm Wed Now - 2pm Wed
53.0n 62.5w 23% < 1% < 1% < 1% 23%
Burgeo Nfld 3% < 1% < 1% < 1% 3%
Burgeo Nfld 3% < 1% < 1% < 1% 3%
Eastport Me 11% < 1% < 1% < 1% 11%
EDDY Point Ns 20% < 1% < 1% < 1% 20%
Halifax Ns 45% < 1% < 1% < 1% 45%
Moncton Nb 39% < 1% < 1% < 1% 39%
Ptx Basques Nfld 9% < 1% < 1% < 1% 9%
Sable Island Ns 4% < 1% < 1% < 1% 4%
St John Nb 28% < 1% < 1% < 1% 28%
Sydney Ns 11% < 1% < 1% < 1% 11%
Yarmouth Ns 23% < 1% < 1% < 1%

[TrappedInLiberalHell]

Halifax has known such tragedy. There was the Halifax Explosion of 1917 which killed over 2,000 people. Also, many of the Titanic victims are buried in several graveyards there.

I've been to many parts of Nova Scotia, and thought it very beautiful. Nearly half its entire population lives in the Halifax Metropolitan Region. I think it's well over one million people. A hurricane hit there could be pretty bad. The Weather Channel says it is expected to hit at high tide. Its forward motion combined with its native wind speed could do significant damage, in the right front quadrant anyway.

I don't know how to do ping lists. Maybe someone can ping our Nova Scotia Freepers and see how they're doing.

[RightWhale]

NS regularly gets some sprightly winds. They'll be fine. Electric might go out, though.

[TrappedInLiberalHell]

It's the storm surge that the Weather Channel seems to be more concerned with. I was actually in Nova Scotia in 1999 or 2000 (don't remember which, as I went both years) when a hurricane passed nearby. I remember standing on the beach at dusk, a brisk (30-40mph) onshore wind hitting me. It was one of those sublime moments where a man realizes the true beauty and power of nature.