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To: deport
I'm worried about that 53%. It really isn't that high, what if some change their mind. Didn't we see it closer to 60% just a couple of weeks ago?
119 posted on 09/27/2003 10:15:28 PM PDT by BonnieJ
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To: BonnieJ
Not in the C of C poll.... there's has been steady at the 52/3 number with 41 opposing.... 6% undecided....

Some campaign polls that have been leaked claim a higher number I believe....
123 posted on 09/27/2003 10:17:47 PM PDT by deport
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To: BonnieJ
I'm worried about that 53%. It really isn't that high, what if some change their mind. Didn't we see it closer to 60% just a couple of weeks ago?

Don't compare this Chamber of Commerce poll to other polling company numbers. You'd be comparing apples to oranges. Each polling company uses differing methodology. Thus, what's most important to watch are the *trends* within the same polling company's poll.

That said, the internals show 49% VERY STRONGLY in support of the recall. Only 36% show people being VERY STRONGLY opposed. It will require a big shift for Grayout to survive, especially with a million absentees already in the can.

157 posted on 09/27/2003 10:39:24 PM PDT by ambrose (Make October 7th the Official "Hug-a-RINO Day")
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To: BonnieJ
I wouldn't worry about it too much. First, as others have pointed out, you can't compare polls from different polling companies; they are using different turnout models. Each polling company's numbers, looked at in isolation, have been pretty steady, and none of them (that I know of) have showed the majority (or even a plurality) supporting Davis.

As to these particular numbers, conventional wisdom is that undecideds break against the incumbent, which means that anytime an incumbent is below 50% just before the election, he's in big trouble. In this case, Davis is trailing 53-41, with 6% undecided. He would not just have to buck the usual pattern (where the majority of the undecideds wind up voting against the incumbent); he would have to pick up every last one of the undecideds, and somehow persuade at least 3% of those already planning to vote "yes" to change their minds. I'm not saying it can't happen; just that it's not the way to bet -- especially now that Schwarzenegger seems to have satisfied people by his debate appearance that he is fit to govern.

289 posted on 09/28/2003 12:34:45 AM PDT by Brandon
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