As to these particular numbers, conventional wisdom is that undecideds break against the incumbent, which means that anytime an incumbent is below 50% just before the election, he's in big trouble. In this case, Davis is trailing 53-41, with 6% undecided. He would not just have to buck the usual pattern (where the majority of the undecideds wind up voting against the incumbent); he would have to pick up every last one of the undecideds, and somehow persuade at least 3% of those already planning to vote "yes" to change their minds. I'm not saying it can't happen; just that it's not the way to bet -- especially now that Schwarzenegger seems to have satisfied people by his debate appearance that he is fit to govern.