For the GOP, it's More than a Recall

Lt. Col. Gil Ferguson, USMC (Ret.)

[ambrose]

I guess this is my question - if Arnold stays in the race, does McClintock have a chance of winning? If McClintock stays in the race, does Arnold have a chance of winning?

Anything is possible in a 3-way race.... BustyMan is showing signs of a 4th quarter collapse... Likely? No... Possible? Yes. Look at Minnesota 1998...

[StoneColdGOP]

Try being one of a handful of sensible people on an unstable web forum and you'd leave with little regard for them too.

(I'm talking about FR)

[zoyd]

If every conservative who said, "I wish McClintock could win, but he can't," actually voted for Tom, he would win with a >40% plurality.

Get REAL! 40% of California are NOT conservatives. This is the big error all you McSpoiler types buy into.

Anybody who thinks that the contribution of California conservatives will be worth >40% of the vote is simply delusional. Go ride on It's A Small World at Disneyland if you want to delude yourself into some happiness, but don't do it with moronic opinions like the idea that CA conservatives could push McSpoiler over the top. They're ALREADY voting for McSpoiler, for one, and for another, THERE ARE A MILLION MORE DEMOCRATS THAN REPUBLICANS IN CALIFORNIA. These are not moderate Democrats, and these are not conservative Republicans.

This is CALIFORNIA. If you think McSpoiler's 14% can become >40% if 'conservatives' vote for him, then your arithmetic skills are severely lacking.

There aren't that many conservatives in California, PERIOD.

[Rabid Dog]

Just curious - were you one of the Canadians that supported our decision on Iraq?

[SteveH]

VRWC_minion, whose flag is set to the great state of Connecticut, wrote:

You gain ground by inches.

So if two guys are for losing ground and one is for gaining ground, you're advocating not voting for the one who is for gaining ground?

Obligatory sheesh.

[SteveH]

Gee, I am too toots, as I have MONEY invested your state...

Good. Glad you don't vote in our state, though.

;-)

[skeeter]

Get REAL! 40% of California are NOT conservatives. This is the big error all you McSpoiler types buy into.

Living in the most heavily taxed state in the union, with a 6-8 percent unemployment rate as a result, tends to make a candidate -the ONLY candidate- who's willing to make a no-tax pledge mighty attractive, even to moderates.

[truthkeeper]

I think the prevailing premise here is that Arnold needs to win the conservative vote, not that he automatically gets it by simply by being Arnold, or R, or whatever.

Bears repeating.

[SteveH]

I re-posted that article here.

[ProtectorOfTwo]

("There are FOUR LIGHTS! FOUR LIGHTS!")

Picard?? With the cardassian in the torture chamber??

[SteveH]

Get REAL! 40% of California are NOT conservatives. This is the big error all you McSpoiler types buy into.

Get real yourself.

From statewide results of the 2002 election here

Tom McClintock 3,136,333 votes 45.1%: Party: Republican

and that's with a primary.

Now McClintock doesn't need 50%, or 40%, he just needs more than Bustamante.

Some folks fall into believing the propaganda from their own side.

;-)

[zoyd]

Living in the most heavily taxed state in the union, with a 6-8 percent unemployment rate as a result, tends to make a candidate -the ONLY candidate- who's willing to make a no-tax pledge mighty attractive, even to moderates.

Yeah, 14% attractive. What % of that 14% are non-conservatives? Hate to tell you, but 'moderates' are voting for Arnold already. And you'd ask them to switch their vote FROM the front-runner, TO the also-ran, with less than 2 weeks to the election? That's ludicrous.

Arnold has said time and time again that our problems are not from a lack of income -- but from too much spending. He says it over and over. He's banked his candidacy on being business-friendly and tax-opposed. To waste your vote for McSpoiler because you're suspicous of Arnold, who, again, complains about our tax burden at every opportunity, seems to be throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

Again, where are these moderates that are allegedly voting for McSpoiler?

And how attractive is BoostMyTaxes' Tough Love plan?

You ought to vote for Arnold simply for the sake of the California GOP (I'm a Libertarian - I have no dog in this hunt), because if the CA GOP screws up this recall, they are simply toast. Simon couldn't beat Idiot Davis in the election -- an election that any Republican SHOULD have won, given Davis' mishandling of the energy crisis. But the CA GOP screwed that pooch. Now they get the chance again, and they're on the verge of screwing the pooch on this one as well. Who would have ANY confidence in the CA GOP if it can't win a recall against a governor with an approval rating below 25%?

When I vote Libertarian, I know my candidate won't win. But you McSpoiler types actually believe the guy has a chance. I honestly don't think you understand the nature of California voters.

Even with the tax burdens already upon us here, Bustamonte might STILL possibly be our next governor, EVEN THOUGH HE EXPLICITLY STATES HE'LL RAISE TAXES. Even THAT hasn't dissuaded California voters from liking Cruz Bustamonte. DOESN'T THAT TELL YOU ANYTHING ABOUT CALIFORNIA VOTERS?! Given any sanity in the California voting population inre taxes, Bustamonte would be a single-digit also-ran. But, despite his pledge for new taxes, he's still quite well in the hunt. What is so difficult to understand about this?

[zoyd]

14%.

His 45% was with no other Republican in the race.

And, in case you didn't check, TOM LOST THAT ELECTION.

Now he's #2, AMONG REPUBLICANS, and you think he's got a snowball's chance? Again, get real.

[pgyanke]

Nice numbers.

Fact: The Democratic faithful will only look for the (D)--pledge to tax or no.

Fact: Most conservatives in CA don't bother because they are usually given a choice by the GOP that amounts to liberal-lite.

Conjecture: The conservative voters in CA are looking for someone to vote for rather than against... and (R)nold ain't it.

[PhiKapMom]

I will speak for Oklahoma since I have lived here a few years and used to live in CA!

Tom McClintock would not get elected in my Congressional district which is conservative. We had someone like McC run in the primary for J.C.'s seat against another conservative in the primary. The reason the "true" or "principled" conservative (take your pick) lost was because he was an unbending, I am the "Only" conservative in the race, arrogant far right conservative who I had supported at the beginning but not for long. It was a nasty campaign with the "only" conservative as he called himself attacking the other conservative and the day of the election I received the nastiest bunch of garbage from the "true" conservative. Long before that I had gone over to the other campaign of the just regular conservative.

That "true" conservative, former Buchanan campaign manager in 1988, lost in a conservative district. He got mad along with some of his supporters and didn't lift a finger to help the nominee and some stayed home on election day which could have cost the Republicans a seat!

The "principled" conservatives helped cost Largent the Governor's office and gave us a RAT. As you can guess I have had my fill of the folks with their unbending "if I or my candidate cannot win I want the RAT in office to teach Republicans a lesson crowd."

Well this Republican conservative doesn't need any more lessons -- 8 years of clinton was enough for me. What I see here is more of the 1992 campaign that gave us Clinton. The mantra of it is better to have a RAT who you agree with none of the time then a Republican your agree with part of the time is not working on the vast number of Lifelong Republicans.

Now I see some of the same folks saying they won't vote for Bush again -- would bet he didn't have their vote the first time! Guess they prefer Dean?

Unbelieveable!

[Sabertooth]

I think that most of the Tomikazis that are left on FR simply hate Arnold. It has nothing to do with philosophy or ideology.

Oy.

If nothing else, can we at least agree, in general, that there's a pragmatism vs. principle tug-of-war going on, and we are all weighing whether or when to lean toward one or the other?

[PhiKapMom]

There are a lot of people on here that voted for Perot it seems to teach us all a lesson! As consort likes to call them -- Clinton conservatives!

They never paid attention when Texans were trying to tell them what a weasel Perot was and how he was hooked in with Clinton.

The "principled" people voted for Perot from a Party that had no social platform -- zero, zip, nada and who was pro-abortion! Now how do they square that with their attacks on Arnold?

[truthkeeper]

I was thinking the exact same thing.

[zoyd]

Fact: Most conservatives in CA don't bother because they are usually given a choice by the GOP that amounts to liberal-lite.

That's a total myth, if you're suggesting that California conservatives just don't vote if they don't have a real conservative in the race. That's no fact. Republicans had plenty of incentive to vote in 2002 - and Republicans did relatively well in overall numbers, due to Davis' relative lack of popularity... and Republicans won ZERO statewide elections. See Tom McClintock for an example.

Conservatives vote, if only because the perception is that Democrats are often too lazy to vote.

It still comes back to waking up and realizing the makeup of California voters. Doesn't it make anyone wonder for more than a second WHY Bustamonte has ANY tangible support, and WHY the only REAL candidate, McSpoiler, is hovering below 20%? I agree that Tom would be the best governor, but woulda, shoulda, coulda ain't gonna be worth a whole lot if Bustamonte creeps in.

[SteveH]

Hey, you're the one that started by making the 40% argument, not me. I just called you on it by noting McC's 45% support in 2002. With effectively $0 support from his own party.

Perhaps you are the type that would have told Howard Jarvis not to bother with trying to get enough signatures for the property tax initiative, either.

I can hear it now...

HOWARD LOST THAT INITIATIVE DRIVE.

AND THE ONE BEFORE IT.

AND THE ONE BEFORE THAT.

DOESN'T THAT TELL YOU ANYTHING ABOUT CALIFORNIA VOTERS?!

Do you have a short attention span by any chance?

And your caps key tends to get stuck, maybe you ought to have someone take a look at it.

;-)