Dan Weintraub: No Clear Winner [recall debate]

Sac Bee ^ | 9-24 | Dan Weintraub

[ambrose]

I don't think anyone won this debate. Schwarzenegger seemed a little too trigger-happy with his quips and retorts, most if not all of which sounded rehearsed. Bustamante was calm and collected but also rude in a passive-aggressive kind of way. McClintock demonstrated his encyclopedic knowledge of state government, steady and stable as usual, but didn't do anything to wow you. Huffington was shrill and cock-sure while Camejo sounded like a Berkeley economic professor, confident in the justice inherent in his world view but not very realistic. Schwarzenegger said this would be the "Super Bowl" of debates, but his performance was more apt for a pre-season game. He didn't exactly embarrass himself, but neither did he score any touchdowns. It's possible his performance will play better with the casual viewer than a junkie like me. It can be dangerous to judge these affairs before seeing the clips that play on the nightly news. But to me he seemed not terribly distinguished, unable to float above the fray or take up much space in the debate. It's possible that he lost by not winning, but I don't think this debate will prove to be a turning point. The campaign continues toward the finish line pretty much as its been for several weeks: Schwarzenegger unable to shake off McClintock, consolidate the center-right vote and pull away from Bustamante.

[Canticle_of_Deborah]

This is a fair assessment. I would agree.

[Kay Soze]

McClintock won but is as elect able as Perot.

I am voting for Arnold.

At the least I get "some" fiscal conservative representation.

Sadly McClintock in an attempt to get even with Pete Wilson has thrown his entire political career away.

[kingu]

Well, I disagree with Dan. I think Tom won the debate.. The rest of his comments are valid.

[owl]

We should all keep in mind that debates are primarily a form of entertainment and tell us little about anyone's ability to govern. You get some sense of where people stand, but little sense of executive ability or the ability to build consensus for a program.

[GulliverSwift]

pete wilson's poor leadership is the very reason we have davis at all. he rejected the savvy leadership style bequeathed to him by reagan and was such a blowhard. he was sort of the newt gingritch of calif. except he only cared about himself.

[owl]

There were 16 years between Reagan and Wilson (eight years each of Jerry Brown and George Deukmajian).

[Timesink]

It's possible his performance will play better with the casual viewer than a junkie like me.

It will. Campaign consultants jump up and down with glee when their candidate is expected to flop in a debate, because then when the candidate merely gets through it okay, he "wins" in the eyes of the public. (And whatever your opinion on Arnold, you can't say he bombed in this debate.)

I'm surprised someone as smart about politics as Weintraub doesn't know this.

Of course, merely doing all right, and doing so well as to attract more voters who aren't already on your side, are two different things.

[John Valentine]

Time will tell, but here are my predictions:

Tom McClintock stays in in spite of Issa's endorsement of Schwarzenegger.

Polling in the lead up to the vote shows that in fact the debate WAS a turning point, as Arnie closed the sale during the debate and steadily builds a clear lead over Bustamante, and McClintock.

Huffington and Camajo implode in a kind of reverse big-bang.

Schwarzenegger wins with nearly 40% of the vote to Bustamante's 35%. MccClintock takes 15% and the rest divvy up 10% among them.

Now, I'm putting my crystal ball away. Actually the ball is made of jade, so it isn't all that clear...

[DoughtyOne]

A certain group of people aren't going to like this, but Schwarzenegger won this debate. The job for the other players was to K.O. Schwarzenegger. They didn't do
it.

Schwarzenegger provided adequate or better answers to each question. The idea that he was going to be blown out just vaporized. The canidates had their chance
to put questions to him, and nothing happened but a "happy fizzies party".

I thought Tom did well, but people expected him to do well. They didn't expect Arnold to and he did.

If your closest opponent in your own party only has half your numbers going into a contest like this, and you do an adequate or better performance, it doesn't
provide a reason for voters to abandon you and switch.

Schwarzenegger wins by virtue of hanging on to what he had going in. It's over.

[Reagan Man]

Tom McClintock won the debate, hands down.

Arnold placed second. He was somewhat scripted and short on details, but showed he could hang with Huffington, Camejo and Bustamonte.

McClintock would still make the better governor.

[goldstategop]

I have great respect for Dan Weintraub but I think its a political junkie's take on it. Most average folks think Arnold came out the winner.

[John Valentine]

McClintock would still make the better governor.

Very possibly true, but irrelevant and hypothetical, because he isn't going to get the job.

[Reagan Man]

>>>Very possibly true, but irrelevant and hypothetical, because he isn't going to get the job.

A lot can happen in 13 days. Arnold may not get the job either.

[tinamina]

It seemed to me that Tom had all his answers down pat and wasn't intimidated, but then he was never interupted by Arianna, who had one job and that was to interrupt Arnold so he could never finish a complete answer. I think the moderator blew it by allowing her to do that (or maybe it was his job to allow it). We couldn't get a clear picture of Arnold's views because Arianna was so determined not to let us. Maybe the snippets that will be shown tomorrow will exclude her and we'll get a clearer picture of Arnold.

[ambrose]

I'd agree that Arnold "won" the debate by not losing. I predicted as much in prior postings around here. In a just and fair world, Tom would win with 85% of the vote and Arnold would go back to making bad movies. However, whoever said life was fair?

[goldstategop]

My heart is with Tom. In a perfect world, he would deserve to win by a landslide and deservedly so. But he doesn't live in one. He won't win and the fact of the matter is by California standards Arnold is downright conservative. He's no Ronald Reagan but he can win in present day California.