*Poll says McClintock could win 1-0n-1 matchup*

National Review (The Corner) ^ | 9/22/03 | Peter Robinson

[TheBigB]

Brother Hugh, some news.

John Eastman, a professor of law at Chapman University and a frequent guest on your radio program, has just brought to my attention a poll that will interest you. Commissioned by the Lincoln Club of Orange County, the poll includes the following results:

If Arnold Schwarzenegger found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Tom McClintock dropped out of the race--then Schwarzenegger would win, 44 to 37 percent.

But if Tom McClintock found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Schwarzenegger dropped out of the race--then McClintock would win, 42 to 40 percent.

From the beginning, Hugh, you have made a single argument against McClintock, insisting that he cannot win.

But he can.

[SteveH]

NYC Republican, whose flag is set to the great state of New York, wrote:

Arnold has done 1000s upon 1000s of interviews with the press in every corner of the globe in his 20+ year career and made over a billion dollars understanding how to play to the camera. There is no more media savvy candidate.

Hoverbug took care of this argument here, not that it didn't quite parse to begin with.

I'll give you credit for "working harder", though ;-).

[PhiKapMom]

You are not even worth debating! You never stick with facts but try to spin just like the Clintonites! Have nothing further to say to you since you obviously don't care what we have to say!

[NYC Republican]

Another reality check... If Arnold never got into the race, the recall would NEVER pass. That's total speculation. There's no way of knowing one way or the other. An argument can also be made that by veering so far Left, Arnold has split the party, thus making a "no on the recall" outcome more likely, as many Republicans would see Davis as a lesser evil than Bustamante.

Speculation, yes, but isn't 90% of what we discuss here- i.e.- our opinions, based on speculation?

Come on though, if it was just McClintock, without Arnold never having gone in, do you REALLY think he would have withstood all of the pressure? Clinton alone would have had him for breakfast. Do you really think that Arnold didn't at least add 5% to the pro-recall tally? Don't let your unwavering support for McClintock cloud your judgement on everything else related to the race.

[HamiltonJay]

Please, characterising going down with the ship for an all or nothing , rather than working to incrimentally achieve your goals, doesn't badly but completely misses the mark.

You have no voice in government without first being elected... and the fact is California hard right conservatives have kept the party from having any say in state wide government. There is not one sitting republican in any state wide office in california for a reason, and the grade school like ideology at all cost dogma is exactly why.

So, you can keep claiming the high road, while becoming more and more irrellevant every election cycle.. or you can work to get the incrementalism and compromise that is republican governance to work toward your view. Otherwise the incrementalism just keeps taking the state left, while you become less and less relevant every cycle... which is EXACTLY what has been going on in Cali for 10-20 years.

[Dave S]

It is a simple question, really. What is your evidence for your bald assertion that McClintock cannot beat Bustamante

Its really simple! Arnold isnt going to get out of the race and McClinton isnt going to hold his 18%. Tell me how you win a basically three way race with 18%. Seems to me that it cant be done but then maybe you folks live in a parallel universe.

[pogo101]

The linked post from Hoverbug shows three Arnold statements (or parts thereof). Two are kinda liberal-sounding, but they don't represent any lack of media savvy. The third is a minor gaffe that surely doesn't help the "media savvy" argument.

But I hardly think that the linked post "took care of" the argument that Arnold is pretty darned "media savvy." I guess it depends on what is meant by "take care of."

[onyx]

You know NOTHING about me, but I know all I ever wish to know about you from your vicious attack on Aloha Ronnie.

You are a hater and I ignore haters. Get it?

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

I thought I would be charitable all day since you guys are going down. Why wipe your faces in it...but since you insist, you got what you deserve.

Another (R)nold supporter shows their arrogance to the little Conservatives, how refreshing.

Rather than falling back on your tangents about what is and is not surging, why don't you defend your pathetic rationalization of how now that some poll shows a hypothetical victory over Cruz if your celebrity drops out, that you are down to saying the 2 points don't matter if the sun was out. What about the other 40 points, what about those? Who are all these people and how dare they not listen to Dave S?

[DaughterOfAnIwoJimaVet]

What happened to Aloha Ronnie?

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

You are a hater and I ignore haters. Get it?

Yeah, I'm *insert name here* that's great. But tell me, in your effort to run away with "dignity" how is it that you can keep calling me names in responses when you are claiming to ignore me? This is a rhetorical contortion, even by Republicans supporting liberal (R)nold proportions.

[pogo101]

if it was just McClintock, without Arnold never having gone in, do you REALLY think he would have withstood all of the pressure?

Also, had Arnold not entered, we'd have had

-Simon staying in longer, at least;
-Issa getting in, whereas he didn't apparently BECAUSE Arnold did so; and
-Riordan, probably to the finish line,

running along with Tom. Point is, the poll is really only a hypothetical -- or, to give it some practical spin, a good sign that Tom could win a general election after winning a primary (... in that primaries are the usual means by with party rivals are stripped away, making the general effectively a two-person race).

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

You are not even worth debating!

You are now the 3rd phoney Conservative I have on the run on today. Tis a good day. :-)

You never stick with facts but try to spin just like the Clintonites!

I stick to the facts just fine and dandy, you are the one that ran away from Warren Buffet, Bonnie Reiss, and Rob Lowe that the picture is referring to.

Have nothing further to say to you since you obviously don't care what we have to say!

Oh I care, I'm not running anywhere. I want you to say you are sorry when (R)nold gets elected and destroys my state's economy, and gets my party blamed for it.

[Dave S]

Why would you not prefer McClintock for governor over Schwarzenegger?

Because he would be a walking disaster. He couldnt lead the state. Dems control the legislature and "Tom Cruz" isnt Tom Cruise in terms of charisma. Reagan could lead because he had charisma and used the bully pulpit. He also had a lot of conservative Dems in congress. You dont find many of them critters in California.

[JCEccles]

Who among the recall candidates is more media savvy?

Stick with the recall candidates then. How media savvy was it for Schwarzenegger to smear a substantial number of the conservative base as "right wing crazies" to the media? How media savvy was it for Schwarzenegger to tell CNN, "That everything has to be done for the people?" implying that he supports big government social programs?

I have seen Schwarzenegger's supporters defend him time and time again for saying things to the media that savvy candidate would not say. They defend him for being ill-informed, or for lacking sufficient ability to express himself in English etc. I believe he has demonstrated a strong tendency to stick his foot in his mouth. I believe it is reasonable to conclude that one reason his campaign staff limits his participation in debates is that they have concerns he will stick his foot in his mouth and sound ill-informed and foolish. He has before.

Of course Arnold is at ease in front of the mic. But I have seen no indisputable proof that he is a media genius. I believe he will do reasonably well in the one debate he has prepared for. The time and format are sufficiently limited that he should be able to cruise through it.

[onyx]

Aloha Ronnie is just fine! He still posts here daily.

[onyx]

I'm not calling you names. You are what you are: a hater.

[deport]

They like some facts but not all it seems......

One fact that has been demonstrated in polls is that McClintock gets only about 30% of the CA Conservative vote..... Now why is that? If he's the supreme conservative having been in the political arena all his adult life then there must be reasons that the CA Conservatives won't give them their wholehearted support..... I wonder why? What do they know about McClintock that keeps them from giving that support? Now that would be information worth knowing.....

[tallhappy]

I could post to the same site that I saw a poll, where Arnold is leading Bustamante by 30 % points, then post it here on FR.

No. You couldn't. The term delusional has been thrown around here a lot. Your post is one more example of where the shoe fits.

[Dave S]

There is evidence that McClintock can beat Bustamante.

There is flimsy evidence. One poll that shows a statistical dead heat if you set up an unrealistic situation where only Mclinton and Bustamante are running. It is a three way race and Arnold is not going to back out to make it Bustamante's race to lose. Face reality!

Do you not prefer McClintock over Bustamante?

Not unless you get to elect a new legislature too. McClintock would be just as unable to lead as Tom Dascle if he became President with the current composition of congress and all the bad blood that exists. In addition, being a career politician isnt my idea of a perfect leader. Few party hacks get a chance to be true leaders.

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

onyx: "I'm not calling you a name. I'm calling you a name"

Me: Sure, whatever.