*Poll says McClintock could win 1-0n-1 matchup*

National Review (The Corner) ^ | 9/22/03 | Peter Robinson

[TheBigB]

Brother Hugh, some news.

John Eastman, a professor of law at Chapman University and a frequent guest on your radio program, has just brought to my attention a poll that will interest you. Commissioned by the Lincoln Club of Orange County, the poll includes the following results:

If Arnold Schwarzenegger found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Tom McClintock dropped out of the race--then Schwarzenegger would win, 44 to 37 percent.

But if Tom McClintock found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Schwarzenegger dropped out of the race--then McClintock would win, 42 to 40 percent.

From the beginning, Hugh, you have made a single argument against McClintock, insisting that he cannot win.

But he can.

[NYC Republican]

If Republican voters see evidence that a McClintock, a true conservative, can beat Bustamante, that they don't have to settle for a candidate who is far to the left of them, might they not be expected to support McClintock? If so, why would that evidence not be relevant? If these poll figures are a pipe dream, why are not the polls you are relying on to justify your claim that only Scwarzenegger can be elected, pipe dreams? What evidence are you using to draw your distinction?

Very simple. This "alleged" poll shows that McClintock could win IF Arnold was out of the picture...

Arnold is proven that he has a very good shot at winning even with McClintock, but it would be close. With McClintock out if the picture, it would be a cakewalk.

Come Nov '04, is it's Clark vs. Bush vs. Nader, and the poll was done Bush vs. Nader, Bush would win all 50 states in a landslide, maybe even D.C. Ok, maybe not DC... The facts are, Clark won't be dropping out, so comparing Bush to Nader is irrelevant.

[pollywog]

Obviously Hugh and the CA GOP have rejected conservatism.

This is exactly what I have been screaming for weeks now.!! The time is coming, indeed, is ALREADY here where the true conservatives are going to dis-engage themselves from the RINO Republicans and form a conservative party. I dare say it will grow FAST as did FOX NEWS when they leaned toward the right in broadcasting.

[NYC Republican]

Wasn't something similar tried by Buchanan and Smith (N.H.)? Failed miserably. Splitting it from the GOP will assure Dem victories for many many decades. Nice....

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

Obviously Hugh and the CA GOP have rejected conservatism.

I know what he'd say to that, "you must want Bustamante, I am a realist and I am the real Republican"...I've heard it so many times its laughably pathetic at this point. Hugh will never recover from this in Talk Radio no matter how this turns out. He may call himself a better Republican, but only this one.

[JCEccles]

Arnold is proven that he has a very good shot at winning even with McClintock, but it would be close. With McClintock out if the picture, it would be a cakewalk.

Close win or cakewalk, a win is a win. Why wouldn't you prefer a close win by a conservative over a cakewalk by a liberal?

The bottom line: evidence suggests that a conservative can win in California in this particular election at this particular moment in time. That makes liberal Schwarzenegger the interloper. If any Republican candidate deserves the contempt of conservative voters, it is Schwarzenegger--not McClintock.

[Spiff]

He CAN'T win, as long as Arnold's in there. Arnold's not going anywhere.

That is not what the Arniebots have been saying. They've been saying McClintock can't beat Bustamante. Of course Tom can't beat Arnold in a 3-way race as Arnold is the spoiler. Remove the liberal spoiler and the conservative has a chance.

[Spiff]

Tell me all of this tomorrow after Arnold blows it big time in the debate tonight.

[navyblue]

"Tom says he will be in to the end--the end may be for him the day before the election if the Swartzenegge numbers hold. I have the greatest respect for Tom taking the heat from his own party for the good of the party."

You may be right. But here is the problem I see with that strategy. If Tom stays in until the day before and then pulls out tossing his supporters to Arnold, how does he get the word out fast enough to accomplish that purpose. Does anyone think the media will help with that? "IF" it were so that Tom "cannot win" then it would be to the media's and the Dem's advantage to keep mum and let the Republicans split the vote just enough to elect Busto.

Arnold is not my choice but Busto is even less.

[onyx]

Join the Constitution party. You'll never win an election, but you'll have like-minded company with whom to commiserate.

[JCEccles]

Do you not want to believe McClintock can beat Bustamante?

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

A sunny day could bring out enough Dems to put Bustamante over the edge in a 42-40 race.

"Could"? I thought poll numbers were God? That is the best you got? Your constant yelling of "Boo" at Conservatism is getting pretty lame now on Sept 24th. Is their any depth you will not sink to in order to say it "can't be done?"

Next thing you we know "Dave S" is just going to be screaming Aiiieeee! in the debatory meltdown.

[NYC Republican]

That is not what the Arniebots have been saying. They've been saying McClintock can't beat Bustamante. Of course Tom can't beat Arnold in a 3-way race as Arnold is the spoiler. Remove the liberal spoiler and the conservative has a chance

Another reality check... If Arnold never got into the race, the recall would NEVER pass. Only someone with ***STAR*** power can fend off the steady stream of (what passes for) powerful Dems campainging on Davis' behalf. McClintock would have been chewed up and spit out long ago...

[HamiltonJay]

So let me get this straight, the guy who makes a living in front of the cameras and on television, is great at PR and has been successful in no less than 3 different industries is going to blow it tonight because he'll have a fat racist hispanic on one side of him and a fat egotistical white man on the other??

pardon me if I say I think not.

[deport]

Wasn't this the spread in the poll released yesterday? Even with McClintock in the race, Arnold beats Cruz by 7% (or was it 8%?).

---

It was 7% among certain voters and higher in the probable voters...... The Ca Chamber of Commerce did a head to head poll around the 1st week of Sep. and Tom didn't do that well... down 6% if I remember correctly.

I'd like to see this poll. Get some actual data on it, like when was it done, MOE, etc. There is no doubt that in certain parts of the state Tom should win a head to head match up....

[NYC Republican]

Tell me all of this tomorrow after Arnold blows it big time in the debate tonight.

Prediction- Arnold's performance will crush all others tonight.

[JCEccles]

If Arnold never got into the race, the recall would NEVER pass.

What is your evidence? How do you know that?

[onyx]

McC CANNOT beat Bustamencha, but Arnold CAN and I think he will despite the blind-with-ambition, obtuse McC.

[JCEccles]

McC CANNOT beat Bustamencha

What is your evidence? How do you know that?

[onyx]

I don't have time for you. Obviously, from your perch in Utah, you have not kept abreast of CA politics.