Posted on 09/22/2003 7:28:24 AM PDT by tallhappy
Real Clear Politics elegantly presents all the polls concerning the California Recall election at this link
It seems that just about everyone pushing Schwarzenegger as the best chance for Republicans also feel McClintock would be preferable if he had a chance to win. McClintock is thought to most reflect their values and positions on issues. But “Tom can’t win.”
A simple perusal of the poll numbers, though, belies this conventional wisdom. Do the math. If only 60% of Schwarzenegger supports decided to vote for McClintock, McClintock take the lead.
Some examples:
The vilified LA Times Poll:
Schwarzenegger - 25
Bustamante - 30
McClintock - 18
With a switch of 60% Schwarzenegger to McClintock, McClintock is at 33 and wins by 3.
In polls with Schwarzenegger polling higher the effect is stronger, e.g. SurveyUSA.
Schwarzenegger - 39
Bustamante - 29
McClintock - 16
McClintock at 39.4, wins by more than 10.
Even the ureleased newst Field poll with Bustamante higher than Schwarzenegger plays out the same:
Schwarzenegger - 26
Bustamante - 28
McClintock - 14
McClintock at 29.6 with the silent 60 switch, over the top by 1.6%.
The reason for this effect is that Bustamante support has stayed consistently low, only about 30%. This is lower than the Democrat candidate would generally poll in a general election. The dynamics of this unique recall are different. Many dems won’t vote for a candidate for recall on principle. They feel the recall is wrong hence will only vote no and will not mark a replacement candidate. Others who normally would vote for a Democrat also may be voting for Huffington, Camejo or even Schwarzenegger. This effectively splits the left/liberal vote more than usual causing Bustamantes numbers to be low.
This dynamic allows a conservative a chance to win in this election compared to a regular general election where the numbers don’t quite add up.
Conservatives are playing defense by voting for Schwarzenegger. Defense doesn’t win. The offensive strategy is for conservatives to vote for McClintock in this election where a conservative actually could win. Conservatives shouldn’t be scared off by the media drumbeat and conventional wisdom. It doesn’t apply in this election. In a normal election a Democrat would pull near 50% and always beat the 40% conservative/Republican base. But this isn’t a normal election and Bustamante isn’t pulling the numbers.
Let the race play out as it is. Schwarzenegger doesn’t have to pull out for this to work. In fact, if he did pull out this scenario wouldn’t apply.
On election day there needs to be a silent surprise. If the polls on Bustamante’s support are right, only 60% of Schwarzenegger supporters need to quietly punch the McClintock chad rather than Schwarzenegger’s to shake the world with their silent surprise.
Good point. I have been surprised Bustamante has polled so low. This analysis is based purely on poll numbers and if they are not accurate, then it doesn't faly.
But, if the polls are wrong on Bustamante for the reasons you outlined, Schwarzenegger has no chance with or without McClintock.
Leave "Fantasy Land" for the kids and Disney.
Please do.
You'd be wrong, though. I would like McClintock to bow out because when Schwarzenegger still loses they can't blame McClintock.
Blaming others for your defeat is always the cowards way. SoreLoserman goes Republican.
McC came within a hair's breadth of winning a statewide office last year, and this year will be far, far better for the GOP, turnout wise.
There's only one thing keeping a real conservative from CA's statehouse - Arnold's most recent ambition.
First, stop spamming.
Second, no politician is perfect (even Tijuana Tom). Arnold Schwarzenegger's values, beliefs, competencies, and core ideals best fill the bill of all candidates in this race who can win.
It's because even though in their views they identify with McClintock, they've been fooled into listening to people like you. "ARNOLD CAN WIN."
Well, he won't. The other shoe is about to drop on muscle-head.
Hey, the thread is based on a ridiculous premise to begin with. Work with me ...
Do yourself a favor and look at their 2002 Senate predictions. They were amazingly spot-on! Everyone had the 2000 Presidential election wrong... That's one race. Look at the big picture, RCP is usually very accurate.
No. Not the goal. The goal is for McClintock to win.
This is not vote your conscience. The math works. Do it.
If Bustamante was at 40 this would not be feasible and voting one's conscience would acheive nothing.
In my case, if it were Rirodan as the "RINO" vs Bustamante and McClintock and all else were equal I would accept the vote for who can win argument and vote for Riordan.
I don't like Schwarzenegger, despite initially thinking I would support him simply to make Cruz Lose.
The basic mistake is to have Schwarzenegger on the ballot. He has split the vote and divided the party.
They're shills. In the tradition of the free marketplace we enjoy, some are paid more than others.
Firstly, I have no "opions", whatever. As far as my values, I believe it is necessary to restrain the Left's continuing successfull attack on public virtue. The goal of present day politics is to hold the defensive line against the Left's onslaught. Fight them trench to trench. Thwart their plans in any way possible. Make them pay for every inch they gain.
To have any chance for victory, we must be practical above all else. There is no room in this struggle for fantasy. Stop living in your own little world of delusion.
Yes. This works to McClintock's advantage in this scenario.
The left/Liberal vote is split.
The Republican base can't win in a normal election. This one has split the dem base though giving conservatives if they vote en masse the most votes.
Careful now - the Tombots will be all over you like a duck on a june bug for statements like that.
I disagree with voting on principle. This is not analogous to the libertarian case ot any third party case.
The numbers are there for this to happen.
It is never there for thrid party cases.
I am not an adovcate of voting one's conscience to throw away votes.
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